4. -7 il@.
A !M VIEW ON THE
SCIENTIFIC fi MEDICAL ASPECTS OF SMOKING ISSUES
Despite the almost unprecedented
on many aspects of :mo% i dwide research WSP
4g n h overall picture
e@+
remains inconclusiv L_ @6i ue to raise further
questions, and to'maidtain-the l4oneral controversy' . -it is
not simply a question of the precise definition of causatiot -
I'm stated,. for example, in the. 5th Edition of the Van Norstrand
scientific Encyclopedia:
'Causality is the hypothesis that a
precisely determined set of conditions
will always produce precisely the same
effects at a later time."
but it is the direct result of the conflicting nature of the
evidence.
Over the past twenty years, the.Tobacco Industry has successfully
defended more than 100 law suits in the USA, An important
aspect has been the lack of proof of causation. . . ....... .
S
But throughout this period, the tobac has remaine
essentially quiet an the basic issue has La,
been widely interpreted by the extern or
an admission of guilt.
Vcjt
/111 e-
Notw of 11
certain views have been advanced that there is a risk t
;@@:o
'CIA - health that is related to the number of cigarettes smoked
14 per day. As a result of these -v-@&Y (albeit challenged A*'@, i---
certain medical/scientific 0 be wz4, many Government and
ealth authorities have recommended that cigarettes should
e modified to give lower deliveries of tar, nicotine and
ther smoke components.
The public have heard these views, and a substantial number
of consumers have also shown an interest in products with
lower smoke deliveries.
.1. dr
Q.
Accordingly, the Industry h;s developed and marketed an
expanding range of products to markets,,including.
ths lew- dettvvry-7ro
U@
................ . ... .....
-4
C7
co
C7%
00
BAT Co LTD MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

eV
ile on the subject of carbon monoxideoit is impet-1-12nt to
to that with the advent of ventilatiarn - which started 9OMq--
years ago in the USA, but rather more recently in the U1,
the carbon monoxide tan4*cthor gaseous components of cigarette
smokl) falls directly id line with the reduced tap. IF
&"&he may also note t a authorative conclusion of Mih#Zh'e'
UK ffunter Committee, 197 IFMC- and the US S geon Gensfal
1981 IFY Or 1.
co
co
ON
BATCo LTD MINNESOTATOBACCOLITIGATION

Now, after some 10-20 years of increasing use of lower delivery
products, many Governments and health authorities believe
that there Is evidenceethat such products are indeed associated
with reduced risk. ig 11
4L?--
if this is in fact so, one should note that only future .5' X i
7
*-bw4AA&* can give evidence about
V present day products. [Figs 2 a 31
At complete variance with the hypothesis that lower delivery
products are associated with lower risk, is the view of some
medical authorities that there are reasons to expect the
reverse, ie that lower delivery products might carry a higher
risk.
Such attitudes might partly be motivated by an overwhelming
desire to discredit smoking: but over-compensationji-cr the
lower smoke content, and the inability of filters without
ventilation to reduce carbon monoxide, have been cited in
support of the view.
gk@ f ze,
<j" *hA6-C6tj6&W-4.-.-,/_turninq now to the epidemiological studies,
iE-is a fact that neither the statistical evidence, nor the
alleged link between smoking and health, is universally accepted.
Thus, a number of eminent scientists, past and present,
believe that the association may be explained by, for example:
- genetic predisposition]
- personality type I i T *Fi g *-7'
- environment/nationalitY EWHO Europe Study Fig
- Vitamin A [Pi I
Moreover, some US and UK researchers, who in the 1950 Is and
1960 '.s noted that in some age groups of white males the lung
cancer rates had already started to decline, predicted that
the lung cancer rate of other age groups would start to hat
in the 1970 11 - irrespective of any change in smoking habit.;
(Notably Dr G Gilliam in the US, and Dr T W Lee n the UK.)
-23 -a- @tit- a-,/
co
CC)
BAT Co LTD MINNESOTATOBACCOLITIGATION

-3 -
of the confounding evidence
fact that incidence of lung cancer and heart disease does
not show a simple relationship with smoking incidence. Thus
comparisons may be made of, for example:
Continent to continent - heart disease
i.@@smoking
incidence (F ), to
Country to country - WHO study of lung cancer
in European countries crig.7-, repeat)
State to state in USA - heart disease and lung I
cancer vs smoking incidence.
.T.,"
ZROO-Ad4t4on--towasmach-genuine confounding
evidence, often compound the situation
VIER sr_ztWff*-_nts or claims that are either unsubstantiated or
e in some cases - blatantly false. Some relevant examples..-----
are given belows 7S CWT4rJ6,-1
s-14 pvb I -a I
2.) A mwvV:1;y-_VK-medical A-Z Encyclopedia q
I e U7 Is's u'r
17 *vj states - apropos cholesterol &A @ 1.__1
disease 'that there is no point in doing anyt]
Dabout dlet until a person stops smoking, as t:
will counter the good effects of any other meas
This seemingly authorative recommendation -i6 flc- C&4a'V 1-1
does not conform to the results of the
recent Norwegian study - --- Mj;@@vtrd
that while the risk ce heart disease
decreased when serum cholesterol was
reduced, there was no such pronounced
decline as a result of reduction of
cigarette consumption. -iSe4evvnve
"The LanceE', P 1503, Dec 12th 1981.1
S&W e
2) The PAka" Medical Encyclopedia specifically
indicts nicotine as the cause of arteroscleroxis
and heart disease. But in a recent article in
'The Lancet* [page ..... , October loth 1981]
Dr Nicholas Wald et al reported findings under
the title "Serum Cotinine Levels in pipe smokers:
evidence against nicotine an cause of coronary
heart diseases %
'The Times' report of the article
C&..6;(fle@changed the emphasis, however, by
using sub-headings purporting that
carb, monoxide was the cause. (Fit
co
13AT Co LTD MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

-4-
3) In an article in the Swiss jou ical Medicine'
in late 1981, Dr L Herzfeld St 'Investigations
on normal commercial cigarette period of years
show that no correlation exist condensate (tar)
and the gases carbon mc
Yet in another art limbed at the same time
in the journal 'Pr he published the analysis
of 45 leading Sw which showed that CO
falls dirt line with tart trig 91
in any cai ay note the authorative conclusions
of both tl ter Committee 1979 IFig 101
and the General 1981 [Fig 11).
Finally, for truly outrageous reporting, we may refer to
the Editorial article from the "Sunday Observer* of 6th
December 1981 (Fig 121.
And then contrast this statement with the
measurements of Hinds and First taken in
typical smoking environments. [Fig 131
THE ABOVE IS MERELY A FRAME-WORY OF A TYPICAL TALK. IN
PRACTICE WORM "eWbe Be asts-BA EkerBRENCES, FOR EXAMPLT-i-
01"THE DESIGN OF MODERN CIGARETTES
CHANGE IN SALES WEIGHTED AVERAGE TAR/NICOTINE
PASSIVE SMOKING
January 1982
CO
BAT Co LTD MINNESOTATOBACCOLITIGATION