I _
too .- J.f..
i1 L 407 NA 500
A
V~t t
licity and
A .Smoking Vub in the
C TobaccO
mgknd for
D
.ga to reduce stnokul.", IL'
Mmpal (houith eduontlOlll)
tslation and public For I
-i"trumonts - ja difficult to a-oa-
oil two main of thl, 111""Ures' demend for tobmll
Is Of
tho ffectiven-8 ~~t study III -stic: the
e8timStAtd
Buynner's 0
*is Int".6t. Ilia combi-i-11-1 Pam' ,olud,-. tb-t
f publicitY he Mad
DW And '11 tl%(' "Be 10" 'ysnd, j, MM%irablb
Igicia-elasticity is 1, P94 hyg over thue. W
effect of Pl
"wbile end %Oeavs to be incrc"') sea . _tions
4 ~wocjy Simi
~ &,,c ffcftu tk'b
Thi- _P10" ro
to
Ve the right Ones
rbathcr bb Wuclus'ons and I
during the
o"hl
t
rtLI L sir4 a q"
ies'. su-er .. in its rc!4
va "dier stud ftuptjoa is WO~MaT_
deu,
onat the
and
bt vnitteA VA
.a O)TI
t, vrwst.. Mr. P:t_
A. for
drnetAS
in-me. iturp Vxd_1RM
-Ink
Ir
1021~a_
-van
(,[the. v3sutinw
_4 At1q
MAr -4-Luthm
The
th,610 low...
appw4 olk for
[31 f6r 197 WAM111 instmir
Of. the
'At , 0, -
-04- % _oftts
0 .- - -L. bliaY "o
joexam A,01 jW
tel" 1b1Qh.1&z440_
tij
La
,,#Tbo
S*dY- *MP* I- ,Wd Out I Mi;
k
asot
Ma
j
zh-
302057240
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 19
April 1999


266 The Mancheder Schod
befum 196' . and 1 thorei&4-r), or' (ii) a
downward trend in &=ad after
1962 (representod ky a rariablo T wbicb6 is zero
until 1901 and ihen
inaivapea lineArly (1, 2, 3, . . J). The demand
equation then hezornes
Qr --.A + m Fssp + ;0'r - r) +
Qr = A + a yav_+_Oi~ Vr+ 97 +
where tippr case letter-, AnwW lagwithwL
The remalte obtaintd ~hy Sumuer (using a3mual data
for tho United.
Kingdom 1951-1967P are set out in the upper pat of
Table 1. Sumner
prefem the second of thm equations an the. Vmn&
Oat "tho 96.
Officiezu of determinatim we higher, the
Durbin-Airatson sta"ics
clow W seceptabte leveb, and the $-raUos larger"
(pap 26). He con.
i
cludas that &0 effect of PdMiLfty is o
nt%R! "4MM-bY-.1Odz t6u0m
comuraption Per -pita Was only about. 4%4"Der than
it. W6~.
otherwin have beW% This, however. is & wmione
wis-intorprostien of
theirevAts. 10"t EquatmA.2 in Tabli I precfi6ts a.
downward Vend
of. 2% per azaam followink't6. RoyvdC*lleg* IOU
roporfso that b
IN7 demand wm 12% Jamw thAn ot*wi 'so expected.
This is clearly..
0, major effect and meau.sthat ad oxpeatetl rise M
tob"co wmmptian
of40 per -head was ravemd. to is fall of 81*/,~
per heid,'orer " rKod.
This is for woft enoguraging candusion. "n.
1 ~moner indicated.
_TAOU I
T04ACCO E)U%MDM kE Fft AbULT AT I MO PRIC.6
Am) -Pew
Pat
4 = *Oeco- 4%2 -1962 it'r AW.
Q
(MW a-Sx
(Try '-J
_77- -
112-9) (24)
~
-
S
W
O
Z61 9 VON
Iu
-
I?! .. Aay.
-0 joir 4 j
:(0
,
2"
- "ie
c1 prWe 4niwa
dao I
p
V
.
;"low and (4).-
(i6 studot t vzluii for eicb Pq mdaq 6t
lish6woAn-puwatimsm)
T
302057241
BATCO document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


I."~ rl)kV., I-
Anti-197110king Pubucityl awd the Dawajidfihrl~bWw
in W' U.K. 207
In the lo-ow part of Table 1, two modifiontione
are mado.to
Sunmer's, resifts. The firgl, concorns flie
motluxi of doflation for
pupulation. Sumner obtidned per capita
expondit-Oru by deflating by
th6 ioLal popWaUon -9 gTM 15'"d over, but during
the period in question
" leads to a jump in the series itt 1962 when the
"baby boom!!
reachod the age of 15. This is particularly
onforhmato in view of tlw
importance of ai-I yrar in deumining the publicity
effect. Th order to
overcome the piuMem. oach *go group was weighted
accordmg to its
cigarette consumption (in 1958), which-IftAt to a
more realistic populd-
tion VAdable. Dds 2"odifioation kads to an
improvement in the overall
Ot Xquation 3). The coefficient of the publi
yariable is.virktaUy
City
an.changod. Swondly, Sumners proM~.1,e(pmtian is
ro-edimated for
the extwided period 1951-1970-we equation (4). The
antim" effag
of pubEcity appmrs to be smewhat smaller; mad t1te
DurbinMagiod
atat"c is less safi&ctory.
Coft"My interpmtod, SunmWs rosolU mWat thdt
-Oblielty *y
havo a powerful affoat on the Iml of tobam
oansumption.. Rien
Wa - 1~ 0
bwer to-ffi .6,.t for r OV er tho cxkmded -fte
perw
the
.
,
results indicate that in 1970 4amwpt.161k W-ax 14%
below its "a*._;
Oblkiwl predicted levoL Them am, howorar,
two.hhp6rWit reasons
why. them x0sub, showd be *Mated with. Mtion.
mrady, -Uttlo
"justificatiou Is-givenJor the patticular
speciffaWon adopted fm tM
pub&4 *arlable. exponahtiak
trend dQcs not 46m especially plausible,. sAd
givew the lindinga or..
-"M which show a high rd" rate among thw giYJM up
=wkin&C
one M' t VVM L eX
__JVd_tbb_.tffed t*UVj&Wd awarovw tiwz.~~006-
-Vaidb!4. just cation wa;4d:be if the orect'af the
repois had beeil to
di-unV yomk -pl* fivm taldng'-Up so * 10.111,
"109,40 theie
woiM bia, A "do over time.5 This #AWrprAW*ft
in
WO
OMQW4_. Y AP,
M 17
Y,-
U
Aa that.
CV.U
'Fla"*aany fWth 'iU4~~Q
Hing to P ubawity.
Twngs dwter. re.)
nim=4 shows thak.fw ea#kO~6x
ION-1976 the ww0A1ftP' Smanor's eVokh
WV cob...
.
ifietentkybOoir its aftud.valu% Th% Iraii 4y
thqft4 tut
VWeg"Mou OW;Aatod 1A)i tbo~*Xbellda fe atia,
AW~ Z* G9, us x9ift"t
siid qii6af a,
I -k-7,
302057242
BATCo document for province of British Columbia J9
April `1999


to esmine the offect of Aernativo specification%
of the P1114icity
variabk.
all.
bi
Id
%
lim 96~vond im qWjectlon to k
t-
POO
h
-
-.
t
at
such ',-u,,
tr*"M* tot IMMU. the trend towams
w Df tipp-4
302057243
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


PO it had inaft*vsad (4) 7R'Y,.. TWfs raivm tho
question w, La how.fkr the fiW
in cmpoudil,uru lbfwr 1W2 ime attributable to
peoplo ohmWing firorn
plain to tipped cigarottas (with a lonvr orpmodi
Lure per cigarette)
rather than reducing the number of cigarettes
smokcd.7 W10o the
cause of such a change in ismoking hahits uannot
be identified and. the
switah ta filtars mny have "a " iimult of the
Hoyal College report, a
finding that it was largely a change in thn type
of consumption would
allow uFi to specify more precisely LW likely
effect of publicity.# If, for
etample, poopir, lu'vo b'*itched to tipped brands
while mnoking the
same number, this effect has a natural upper
bound. when the wholo
population has changed over; op the :other hand,
if-pubhoity-leads
people to reduce the number of ciguottim smoked,
dwre is no such
boand. 0m. reason Suainer did not consider then
aspects is that he
oDnflnod his sttenUon to the o"diture data.
Inthispa' wehave
per
made use of an alternative source-the Tobacoo
Research Council
(T-R.Q) series for tobacoo consumption M.9
Tbisk.,O,1dOBfnfOrm4,t1bn
about the numbers of tiprett" and the - weight of
soNood mbstuded.
and insectionsmanaiv *04WW*ttitallOVM WtodlstI4
more
clearly ~he effect ofpublicity.
In his anW.YWO Sunmer Ow made,~~te allowance for
the
upward kend in smokiog- by wow&L 'The existenos of
Rich a trend
means that in the abacnee of publieity wa could
hAve 'expected coA-
MUMPOCO W hi" iftreased, and since Bnm~oeaequp!Uon
*noree
We. trond.. the meffi6entof.2' is bkood dmmward*..
The rem- givon
by. Sumnee ibr not including s.tr4nd was. that '14
tha.pm,1962 owtAoq.
of the 1~aflod itsed the, a of1womeal Onokers-
exhibits no
here pr pportio
e1 w tftnd", but whft " is'true, the total number-
of aiganttes,
smoked per 1Md 4y women jd&~ by -,so% W.*44f 1
(151,, TeMe 4~ Utor in: the papw. Su&ner attempted
to allow for tilrm
by * dizoonUtmotw tvend,~. but ite fdt that the
rmlh~-Waenot satis'
_,t4a
f
it-
FW'" data
Oevslrl~ equabons-
R-Am". n.Wj M-nt
4 XII.
In, this section we, O-Ka raine thS
Tftift Obta' "jWthe~W
tobacco and. the Sumnerk,
1 resildu for Oq"MK4 urv~ 1he earim whf& we w0
Ain*
a).",*bt of, tolliseco, par head Of-adw*--pope
302057244
BATCO document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


V& Raiul"Ier ScAool
270
(b) numbers of manufactured cigArettes per head of
adult population
(-vreightoed by consumption in 1958).
Thew two series are shown in Figuro 2. toge0wr w4h
the exrpn&turo
-eri-A- Front this it ta clear thmt the three
series move broadly in line
until 1061, but that Ottr 1961 tko weight series
falls substAntially.
whiwass the- number of cigarcU4x.incr&uAx (afw
a-efflatfrig AWL a
constant level for six years), and the expenditure
occupies an inter.
modiste position.
ANNUAL CONSUMPTION OF TQ9ACCO .. IE R N9A9 OF
WEIGHTED POPULATION 11951-1970
302057245
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 19
April 1999


Anti-Smoking Publicity.ond the Popiandfor Tdk_cro
hi the U.K. 271,
TABLE 2
ESTIMATES FOR EXPENDITURE, WEIGHT AND NUMBERS OF
CIGARETTES (19SI - 1970) -
Iteat Price rftt
dispomble tobaccol 8962
kwome price tino
aftr Indt trand.
W x* T D.W.
Pr
(4) Expenditure O- 1-47
. 0- -01017 0-M
~g
A19-0), (3- 2)
34
0-460
M Weight ~0.on
0 -M 1.36
Number of 0.SI9
-0-381 0-968 1.10
+
Cigarettes
*11n the case of equation (6) ti~* price Index
relates tocipretw only.
A Ift* thxfte, -"d weaft QAb thd 44SAW oonsaftW&
kt 1970 -w"
19% Wow IN exp6oted "pro-pubticity- lewel. Iiia
01&ct &~ubliefif
Ina
appears to. have. been noticeably larger in te.r
of *eight of tabsom
consumed thdn. in tanns of qxpoWiturc. If %#o tnm
to -the number of
ei n0va (equation (6)), the resoke are quite
diffmout. The -owAgient,
of the publicity variable is now posItive and
insignilicant stAlve 166%
level, ..TAken at face value. this suggests. that
publicity. had -offectively
no impact on the number of oigprettea smoked,:
however, the e-quation
is cleady not satief-tow R4~jt stonds, in Vi6W-zf-
the serial emrp)Ation..
Y different remilto
Tho vat obtained for we Wit and fortufmUrs of
dprettes aggest that we dwId. camder these two
wdes xepy;ately.
scefion. in r6c.-tawlili oic
-the '6y wei&t. 'From the edical
%ttion IV -those for t6bacco.goods In
stallapoint, the Wter Pric.~~ th. mm- Wjeva4l,
.'but.." we havo
on 96Dd, The kot.that-tho rcsWtofor weight and
.nmbcro diffier'
frplu
'bj
Mg the eq)MVUd
Yetioent about the methods employed, and W. is wt
clear that the
-biereased pMj
Ogmttos I*,adeTtate-foi our pqrpofts. -Thim
idria:1ur ~~r.
saws.
Tpbli t.eta
2 t
7 :-!
302057246
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


NUMSEh OF Cr.AtEMS
TABLE 3
PEt NF
&Z., Plice Cleo
AO OF WEIG
81
14,/
~
164ce
WMD POPULATION
(6) other
-0-361
(7) 016k V-S) +0-MV r
-0*
3
-6)
115
(
0-364 4-1) +0-003.7 -r
M (1-6) - (1-0) ,(It)
0 D.W
64
_04 15 (2-S) b *2)
(2.1) +0010 Itv
D-GANUO)w P
i O.M
mplics, (3-7)
'W"
P. 4~ to,
81 "
0-.M
r0
ith- y "able .0. r n"
+
o`%-d 1417
_vaft,
ftuM
b
I
e
no
302057247
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


rutV%t.~Y 4,j thir bmumd f6f TrOW&O i# W.- US.
273~
(about SPY,, in torrnf4 of w6ght in 1970). This
raipm two imues. Firstly.
it, viny be e3qvoW that the price of othor tobacco
gcxK6 would be
ULIPOrtitut, and iucleed Stimnar Ftuggosta this as
a method of eliminating
se,AAI. correlatiou in his equation for
oxTx)ntliture on cigarettes. The
effeet ,( introduoing this variable is shown in
equationsi (7) and (8) in
Tablu 3. TIw roaultz-amrn4 v\-fy wttWactary. N
equation (7) thore is
no Improvement in the Durbin-Wat4on statistic; and
while equxtion.
(8) is much better in thip respect, the
coefficients of both P, and Pp are
insignificaut and the latter Is ot tM "wmvie' AV,
Th6 Variable F# is
therefore not included in the subsequent equations
tmd aA altem&Uve
Approuh ia adopted to elimituad.the
serW correlation. The wwoud
.
VWXMIM for expecting the equation for cigarettes W
bei rather.diffbrent
in that it is widely believed that the. Royal
College report had a greatec
eftot, on ciprette coimmptiou than on otiter fbrms
of smoking and
tliai it caund-swit4ing $min eigirett-4 t~ I
pipes am 040W. it is AM&-
for rather surprising that the results given in
Table 2.M'dio*W U6 the
qui
opposite as far as number -of -cigarettes is
cosoar6idL-the trend'is.
insipMeant and positive. It is rtawmable'to
assume. 'howevor, that
this eta= from..the i"AVPL-,P.4t_ Specifloatiou-Of
-the Publicity effeq,
since Flignm 2 suggests that.publkity did have
some..e%mt O"n-#w
suTMw of eigarettea amunled. We thm no*! to -
owsider AfteraMive
.
.
UTadoiifi (9) and:t1O) InVable, 3~-Aa*-*bs
Offwt-of -aitem&tive.
-upecificafiens. The first Ofthese mituns to the
AM Variable D ;Ojoted
Ay Sunuter, and the.remjti *iwjb&;t in
tbe present i~m,thja ii eleWy
,
Vq-artq2.- -the w*ffici~ni..j'_4'the right Op and
is siptifivani-a the
5% level- The-Durbirt-Wateon otatistip is.
however, so na~ator
tp-4blioity
J"wed &'puMaji drop In eonsurapticui St Certam,
Witli i,
Z.,
it
AWM to the
P-bito fls~u oftbe, ftypa C611'pm
e
port),aad 19W" whMItetevist
"15-mA' 4
blk
-th Tbo
aW yoara,. but the Amo rate o4--teotary. resdita,
are v earky.
botter than thoew tiv". by &M WjAftW" OW..
ii]Me-cf th
..W
'W"ffllg -d theidurnmy
'yq*W that the e5xtaf piWiAy
,
J!kO yirl - 411ii1st, in 1"S fna.11190" UMIOU a
4--o"A 4id
jr1w
&-f-MA thit thwe&4
302057248
BATCO document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


274 The M(wheder Mod
PVWLICITY EFFECT ON P&MAMP FOIJ
CMANCTTES (1962--1970)
94 ~
91.
9 t..
61 #1 4
a clezmipflon,~~ _14"Luce iqAWI9Wx the hyWthe*,bf
a
SU&M faa followeoi a gracb3al fttVA is rlmviy
p"ferable fn the am
of the. stimber of *arettft to - timt sdi=wA by,
Samaw i
support for this is provi&4. by the effect of the
piblication of , the
Royal Nlleg* Rftxlrt in-1-071. Thb-'eaused a fan
rieiwve to the'
tion
-xPefted 03dMUMP ht -that year of'4-90/, vhich Is
~fty sindlar to
theAin 1962 dind MM-The pielinifitax
7 fivresEgr 19n Daheate
return Api!L towards ale,-0-ted IOV4
r it r lygmd t~.. t tv Z" of FALay u. &hv
W
wmUau&Uvwd ory.,~Jf" isso. th
any: Was of
WgdAo qf Imbb
YOVASt grige through - Al"ges, in. Go- t "' of
iikalll One'
,pratth sin
y
it is
-alrained ty i6~
1'.
be i0owing r by th~-
Tbi oil-
dIt Ila 7.77--.. 7
7
(11) a d (12) ih:J.IXbW4;U
-with a lower X2 and a Wgher degme'of mrial
borrelatign, IE~p-pmfficWnt~
Of Plit howa#er a 6a;~ low
%t and
iddicates an upper t
4 ftds Io 1009
Q. of,,o,, roditcOm 44T ow-01rd-In Ahm WeW or
i6tuicto
coommod.
(Wt nat*VNngthetwl
302057249
BATCo, document for Province of British Columbia
19 April 1999


Anii-Synoking Publicity and the Pmet- j9r T0&WW in
tke U-K - 275
TABLE 4
Wt.IGIIT OF TOBACCO PER HEAD OF WE*HTED POPULATION
--
(1951-1970)
price
h-01 44--i
d1*00ble $W1ce
kxwe other goods
other* All D.W.
0-466 -0-M -Q~WT 0-9S4 1-36
(18-3) (3-B). F, +IS
04"
(12-3) ~ 4M4) (114)
-(12) 0.730 -1"26 -0-004 F2 0-91S. 1.16
.01-51 (0-2,~ . Q-9)
0.5 3 -04 1 ~~Wo Tes 0.917 .1-22
(12-
(14j O*A 1146
(15) ~-04" TDIS 04a
(2-1 2-5)
(10- 2"35 T820 0-%2
p2 o
(2(~2)
(17) 0446 Togo 1.56
re
0-54S -4-144 -04SO TSIS
(1-9)
F2- mbor of filter cigarettes is prop-w- pl-ta,
c4w- conmm"IM
ST iff
HOWOM, in th6 am as va, them
that tho averase Wallm of
-*heMer; AUOR -an: UppM bWMA %.ddko -h~ 6,
-WoMorlpftu-
which Umda t6 a -lWi.. (if -Ai 40
.4":840W.- JA
-(13H17)"
Tabl&4.aho**hoie,,nlb-for-&ffa*t-vWiloN,di-
V" of
Wj
-W& ties
~+~,Oon of
A
302057250
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


276 The XancAeaW Mool
which, together with the results obtabA using P,
indicates that the
downward trend in woiUkt, of tobacco smokod is in
the limit two-thirds
by a a-*Uch to filter diprettes and one-third ky a
moverntuit towards
smaller cigarettes. It is not clear that this
"changs in taste" has bmn
induced by Ujo anti-smoking publicity. 7ho socond
r&wxt of MW P417A
Wlege of Physiciam states that the "pnbliciky of
the first CoUege
Report ... had no effect oa this trend (towards
filter cigarettes]" and
-wh#e they give im jostification, for the
sWtenwmt, irt i--'tme~thut -tho
change had started well befaTe the publication of
the ieport in 1902 (the
proportion of filter cigirettes having increased
fkvm 2% in M5 tD 200/0
in 1964 Tbeie is, however, no clear mesw.j)f
Wenaying or, POMA
data how far the abange is attaibutable to health
canpaigns and how
far it can be explained by other factors (sm& as
chango on the supW
side adjabising eto.).~
If wo reWra to the expwditpre doto, we can am that
fit this can too
the v"ble-TB-M t&
provid". bewr fit to the da (equst~on 18). In
partielilar, the Durbia,.Watson swisti.0 MGM
qstisfackvy than in the
M& Of 800111erIfy boatwn (4)-. The ~owMcieqt of TD
-15 i~"tm an.'
!1,15,""totic reduction In the level of
expenditure of 86%, Whi& M&rbd
Ow"Sated &=noes Manuing d"RV*Xd kia of 1-7
% PO
annft. - ko oven, -0 we haveju" srgued'this e ed
oanwt necewa~*.-
&
be sitribu"d
uti-meWing &big&.
'How,far the publicity. 'ques"M
ww respoo4bli is an
'AUJI Jk-AON BY A*b~.WOiM*
-Therv amtwo.nata ressoi4for catimating osparate
equatk*w
meh-and Vrom". Fh;W &G.B.UggestelL eaffiar
'J#,~,ztd'the u0w" iiiin:d -;r~ bj "~mea may have
la& to the
Wh
4 j)f
Ott bA
us to ex%mine whahw;nm and
Talii;,O, ahows-therewts for thernumber of
cigaret* Oonsidering
Utst the oqua M
i1 for Am so tha -the failwo
-bfTmidicatiesonjus -ken 4
-for the iii"w1(ird. t;rv41.#p2bnS. Wedeln- a.-
'.iiac ih~ 0( t
give-am, T, i1WIS"& (A
-in off Ja tho A . 6-M WO 4, W en i~.V- I":-
'6 4W,,VdWAbaA
~Vo jq~101,
7 In thd (.*w QW,
Aud, rIFT"t,
302057251
to
BATCO document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


A'"fi Rn- OkfRg PuNkilm ,n! i7a: Fftmund
jorYlai'acm in the U.K. 277
TABLE S
MVMBER MOGAREMS Peft HEAD OF POPMAMON
Price
Pad# c1preftes/
dhpuablc ~ Orke
kKom othergwdt
y5 ft POX
Aim
0-174
0
41
M
(3-1)
0
292 -
-
6
(2-7) -0-0000 T
Q
) - -0.1" -0-06S0
(10M)
e-342 -
(1-7)
+04M
-0-0700
(7-6) (",1) (+9)
(19M) 0.3a -0-ft D
D.W.
0421 0.95
0495 1-03
-0478 DI
(24),
-1 :0-M RI O-W 09
40 Z of
RI
2-8)
WOMOR,
wy) 1-230 -0-434 Q4144 T
I-A0 -0-167 O.W3 0 0-M 1-54
(1" 1-214 3468 30,10 0-012, DI 0-991 M
+0410 RI
(IOVYY 4,102,
(1-4) CIS)
7
"0". ia both.19ft and 1965 the,,~ptim" fall Ipa
con"M
_8%. thia 6 ink& ~i"W, ifi 'Md
th: a]*. aim
Mut
Iftauah is t; -0 bhoit
qwtiankjW) MWAIOW). the
IM
ire -1~ '. .
yvarfaMesWere ro
U upw..,l imad th-whout the period;
Thli G"Uwj&#O Man--womes am rosongiV6 to pft
SAM altho
ugh the el!~tlaity iewd Y6ryj&j
Ajpk then qu#pMt thO eXRDOt4UM that tholijown*61d
re 6t 14'.
that ~6*-4w~~hy li.uji
rovuhwfur -men
-~7 7 z_-
302057252
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


-273 The Manclukr &14a
finding for the aggregate.consumptioR t-h4t tha
var4ablo PB15 performs
rather botter than T., hitving a more satisfactory
Durbin-Mystson
statistic. In the esso of women, the equat4on with
T ".=tq volightly
better, but the difference tit very ftbt.-
TABLE 6
WEIGHT OF TOBACCO PER HEAD OF WEIGHTED POPULATION
AWN
&"able. price
Inceloe
D.W.
M"
(SM) ID-170 -~0-233 -OMS T
(+
I
6 1S
S 0
4
7
-0-0
1-M 1.
Y-22
. -0-044
I
2
(I SM)
1
"
5
T
8
0
0 '141
(17M) I
(S-6) (1-8)'
--:(ZIM) 0-234 .-O-W TBIS' A-M. 4111
wMall .......
(1" -21.7 -0-S61 -01017 T Q-W 1-71J~
-
.(17 0:1 -%21
r' -,04
3
2% 1
1
W) .
-(1
6
1
42
p 4
41 SW) 4-249 S. .964
1
O
M. .-,0,%$ 1.78.
0
T
At the beghuabg-of tbb paper. we pointsdout that
the InWpeets.
-eq
~W 7 1~. j A t-pr Vivo- o.' 49k fre
yfjJA'y,-kk:*---t k.
-ahoft, hp*eyei~, th&tdftnVh&4&ready*t&W
hidfiftdis0*ft0PW"
different
ftholulons. shoxiU he drawn.
SUMS doubtalid t1iit. mther
.
.
The-ra" i;!par -ant of our. cmdusiolu am that:
mUri oE Ma xW F .0.
(A) the'awks foi-na"
ag -.A fom-in
gMjM yL_tb._Jtg'
~R~10'= ov Wt -Aina--
W
302057253
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


'. -A I ~I ,
ix
--IM
Anti-SwwNuy Fat"'Ity -and IhO I*M%d krPdd= ilk 46
U.K. 279
(wound 511" ) and was itemunted for.er.-tirely by
men (the
I.
.f6.i..t for women boing ingignificant).
(h) them has lx-en- a, dnwnward trend In the
weighb of tobacco
consumed which is asimisted in part with the
invitoli to filter
efgomttoa &ad p"y with the reduction ia their
average
weight. How far this is attributable to ptablicity
is an opwi
qu"on. Contrary to &mner's findings thia is
unbkoly t* be
a cmtizu)i*-.pw6m, aod flw-rmlW
prmn~~d)join.sunest.-
au upper 1J.'wind to the fall in. weight -of 45%.
(a) the evorall price clastiefty IS IOW.As ims
found by earlier
vriters, aud -there appear to be clear differences
betwoen men'
(for whom it appem not to be Ogniflevntly dffemt.
from
SM) 61A fOr *6=6 (for WhDM it iS about 0-35
For policy purpows. the only defiaite conclusion
seems,40 be that
publicity has had a tempomr.* effibet an the
nuiaber of -eig"tes am.
waned W. men, while vowen's oDnmmption -has been
reduced
'thr~ugla increow ft twmfion. At-the MW th"
publift -am take
many dffavpt fopm~s and'it. "uld beemphaiised ~hxt
these roulth
qnAy-owy to th" Actuallyffiven ova the last,
deftab: moms fopdr4~9
Of WOROYAl 00fte r%WrtS, rMW4iOM On AdVWUSinj,
Sad.(PD 4
:--NirilitiodwLknt~.nati4mdoking cam 1111!q$ do
uot Ix calm
e rily imply
h '
'idd! 06"t: Ilavei, W, Won
-differeut. or more sustained yxiblklty OD
on
Rom A. 13
4 ~.
.7
longth by Sutw~nr, who slaq eitkiiited
P do& F10"
04 9( thkpLpw-:
04 review- ~by,ztunt d Q1., 191 a dftm~kt swim
-Vhi~)%
,tw
met 614he IoUsqwt o4 .k4i
I*yZt the eff
iv!~ OAA to- to IW'U. $wnuer.
k%*qxvmLt to Ta I*k tba Pxft I*MW
Few
h.
_n
302057254
BATCO document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999


't JWA 72F
The hfawAater Sduwl
Mis oxtnt of switching from rigam4WS to other for"
of tobacco, is conwered
e4 natruoted tmm MakLI-juroftmaw" Ouppliod by t1w
tobarga
induwy, whiph ii nhto tbe wwev quot44d km- the
C.S.O. for the Wbaaw
oxpmftom omits. It Abould th"efwa be of,~t lemt
romparable Miability.
Proportli-is amuk-i by men wol wowitua are from
arginal samplo surypys of
About 10,000 pwsow It hag the dimadvout*go however
61sM th- dMIL Is 4&Ay
availablo cut an auau4 ~hpni-. -ry fw this reamon
no refw*nee is tuade to
Sumn~r'& u4matmm estisn" on a quarterly bmis.
wMe wpociftation elearly roquires finsher
e"minatioa, and in a latw INqw-wo -
plan to test equatims ineorpoMUP4 laggpd edktow"ts
arA the efrads of
bAbit $UWAtiom
UThe wport, of the American Surgeon-Ckukeral in
19" may also have bad on-
influence an Bri" consumptlop.
$%A furUwr factor is the cowumption of other
tobacco goods referred to'dwves
however, during the *od i9al-wo the cottwamption
or cigarettes b"
ffr-i=& of t1w tatal weightr. The, dedim in .
tobww Itas = nwom oriew axwtly offil!pt by the Cho
id tq" ---Pt&-
me ES],. Tab16 I.,.
MWOOY, the cDfAVA speoifwation in Jog (I -'VF)
when 0 In the pwoaxtij~ 7
,differenco in wbight between plow and filker
cWuw"eC,9quO1oi (12) M47
be ragwded " an a"zb=Uw fiw -wong A
Inie Kwit. in, not -rdkUUdr!Y sonaiti-a to the-
valnfi at h Lhe robse fort 14
,W t
is ne !on~
11.1. Sumner, U. T.,'Temattd for tabacoo
imtbAux.,,irkj&wAsder
,'The an%tym of nuutet &wwW", lk-ftw:
AWi"4Wi4, VOL 108-1946.
13 ITMti A. IL. "Biwie e4ximme Inhemand &,~dpw'
[4) k..WYwMi.,--A_
- -Ma-xa.- OZ,460i , Vol. 3 1.
"SmO.O.. pf 14w, LL 1,.AWG
_j
JOI Royal CoUege ofFlipicia
1-71 Aoyd. CuUja of. Physidans. Swwhtw -atld HmM
4N% Lgb&n
[8): L J91. -0 W"Pity selkir. Bhho
A' *,XIN&
'90, VOL. P7..X%4i.W X_.-
.7.-
7--
302057255
BATCO document for Province of British ColurnbiO
19 April `1999


Aafi,Rnuking Pithlicily and the Demandfor Tobacco
in lite U.K. 281
1101 Crntrzd 'Stutinticai Office, Natiowd- Inevina
and RilwwWarej 1002
and 107J.
1111 Ckwtral Statiotivi) Office, Frowwtk Trenda,
Fohnittry 1972.
[121 Central Statisticai Office, Anlawl AW ract of
Stodkics, (various
yea").
Appftidix: data swies
(a) U.K. de j4do populatiom over M yeaft Rgr 1(2j.
UX. do facto population over 15 years age weightW
by i4P
gronp~ cigaroke consumption in 1958 [5]. and [12).
(e) U.K. de J44o mate population-over 15 years ap
-ightod. by
age group cigarette ommouption, in 1958 [5] and -
1121.
(d) U.K. defiadb 1-6 ywa 6p wotht~d ~Y
ap group ciptnte con*uraptj
(a) tobacco expenditure p- adult (par *#ult
weioted' by cigarv"-'
'00"um Pt 61)', consumIor expendim re on tobacco
at 1958 prices
divided by (a) (divided. by.(b)).(101 and. [11].
(f) tobacco. wnimnW4 hy weight par adult (per
-ale.. rw fszoale)..
4 nnual vreightof toba co uiu~d. -by wome-q)
~Vo. ju tom.
divided by, (b)
(g) sumberofejgarettro consurned per adult (per
malo,pr
of 0111pira eonalikw:
.4 weit, by~"men)
&ri&4 by jh) (j~), 4d)) N.
I .1rariaNw-
'doHaWd*
p
p
nalacit -price index -of cowuwer4-0q=dItum-diwided
by
for
(4 ~) or (b) as
v):-implicit price jadexqf~oba
"C00 CLod.;
togatwAse tob.apoo ezpeoa~;~' 4on-tabacco,
expenditure) given
~by W-Awft'- -dituwa. at
ujg aufa J.,
'M jummy Varkwe zero tin IWI: I frotq.1902.
adawa4wm-tm nrt~ t Cr.
302057256
BATCO document for Province of British Columbia 19
April '1999


302057257
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 19
April 1999