.Y. FAR: 5- 3-34 : 12:35 0712224094;:30/30 r"TRIAL TOBACCO I.M. C. ANA T) A T. N.C. MF.FTTHr. - MAY 11/94 In.,%.I NO. 2t MARKET UPDATE April 25, 1994 Market Overview: The key issue in the marketplace has boon the impact of the tax rollbacks that took place on February 8, 1994. The federal government reduced the excise tax an cigarettes by $5.00 per carton of 200 directly, and provided for an additional reduction of up to $5.00 per carton to match any provincial tax reduction in excess of $5.00 per carton. Similar excise tax reductions were applied to manufactured tobacco (fine cut), tobacco sticks and cigars. Since the federal government initiative, five provincial governments have followed with tax rollbacks of their own. The result of which is a considerably different tax environment in these five provinces; Quebec, Ontario, Now Brunswick, P. E. 1, and Nova Scotia, compared to the rest of the coun". Suggested Retail Prios (All Taxes Included) Carton (200 cigarettes) Newfoundland $53.64 British Columbia 49.43 N.W.T. 4e.65 Saskatchewan 48.6.3 Manitoba 46.83 Yukon 43.44 Alberta 40.87 Nova Scotia 34.21 New Brunswick 34.21 P.E.I. 32.42 Ontario 24.96 Quebec 23.76 1 C:) fl-j -4 NJ U4 00 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 W. PAR: .5- 3-54 12:27 0712224034;*20/30 T. S. G. MUTING - MAY 11/94 ITEM No.i 4ft) The result of these actions tis that we are witnessing considerable movement of volume from the DFX portion of the industry back to domestic. In addition, there has been a slight shift from fine cut in total to tailor-made In total as tailor-mode has become relatively less expensive compared to fine cut since the rollback in some provinces-. notably Quebec. category performance; As of March, the contribution of domestic tailor-made to the total CTMC reported industry stands at 78.9% an a three month basis (up from 55.6% In January). This growth is attributable primarily to Quebec and Ontario, where sales of domestic tailor- made to date represent 213% and 132% respectively of the previous years' volume over the same time period. Like domestic tailor-made. the contribution of domestic fine cut to the industry has also grown, albeit not as quickly (9.0% on a three month basis in March vs. 8.2% In January). This growth is the result of a shift in volume to traditional 200 gram and "25% more" bonus fine cut options primarily from business that was in DFX fine cut. The contribution of low-weight fine cut to the domestic fine cut industry has declined somewhat since the tax rollbacks. Following the governments' actions, the DFX portion of the Industry has been dramatically reduced. To March, DFX tailor-made represents 8.8% of the CTMC industry on a three-month basis versus 29.S% in January, while DFX fine cut has declined from 5.3% of the industry in January to 2.1 % in March an a three-month basis. CTMC INDUS I RV COUTPOW101 MI 12 Me 3 Me SI 92 93 94 Mar. 94 UN. Om. T.M. 71.4 68.5 58.7 43.1 78.9 83.5 04.4 83.4 $3.9 $7.7 0FX T.M. 12.1 1 5.9 20.9 22.8 8.4 Oern. F.C. 10.8 10.5 8.6 0.4 0.0 14.3 14.3 13A 12.1 11.1 DFX FC 4.3 4.7 2.1 Saw= Mwtry Euhu*e 1`110 2 00 %..O LIM BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 5- 3-94 12:28 0712224034:-21/30 n- T. S. G. MEETING - MAY 11/94 rM NO. t 4(i) Total IndusIty Volume, To March, total CTMC industry volume stands at 51.5 billion cigarettes on a twelve month basis. This represents growth of 1.4% from March 1993. What we are witnessing is a greater portion of the total industry being accounted for by the CTMC companies, particularly since the measures taken to reduce taxes. With major Canadian trademarks now available at reduced prices, other non-CTMC products such as generics and raw leaf have become even less attractive to consumers. We anticipate the total industry (non-CTMC and CTMC) to decline 2.2 % in 1994, to 52.8 billion cigarettes. with the CTMC portion of the industry accounting for 49.5 billion cigarettes. Once again the market is experiencing dramatic change. The movement to products offering a price advantage, that took place following the large tax increases of -1 989 and 1 99 1, has essentially been reversed since the tax rollbacks. Even though not all provinces have rolled back taxes, the availability of lower priced tailor-made in half of the country suggests we are unlikely to witness again a situation of smuggling tobacco products from the U.S.. or elsewhere, into Canada in the short term. if anything, inter-provincial smuggling will likely satisfy any demand for 'cheaper" products in the areas of the country that have not introduced tax rollbacks. CTMC INDUSTRY SHARES (Total Tobacco) 1994 112 Mos. 1994 (12 1991 1992 1993 Marchl Mos. March) ITL 58.5 56.6 58.5 57.7 59.9 RSH 24.6 25.9 24.5 23.6 23.0 RJR 1 18-9 1 18.5 1. 19.0 1 18.7 17.1 Source: Industry Exchange PO 3 C) Pi -4 NJ L04 00 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 X FMR 5- 3-34 ; 12:23 .,,,,07 2224094;#22/30 T. S. C. )MITI= - MAY 11/94 rm NO. I 4(i) in share terms, ITL finished 1993 back where it left off In 1991. Following a loss of share in 1992, ITL rebounded by making its major trademarks available in smuggled channels in the second half of 1993. As the majority of the tobacco bu3iness has now returned to the domestic tailor-made portion of the market In 1994, ITL is enjoying accelerated share growth due to the competitive strength of our trademarks, particularly du Maurier and Player's. We anticipate finishing 1994 with a share of 59.7% of CTMC total tobacco. RBH and RJR have both seen their shares decline as the bulk of the business that had shifted to DFX channels in '92 - '93 returns to the domestic portion of the market. RBH's strength remains in low-weight fine cut with its Superall options, while RJR enjoys steady performance from its Export trademark in domestic tailor-made and bonus and premium fine cut. Total jailor-Made: This is where the bulk of the business now lies. After losing business to fine cut as prices rose steadily from the mid 'so's through the early '90's, tailor-made has grown in contribution since November 1992. At first it was the increased availability of smuggled tailor-made at cheaper prices that caused some smokers to leave fine cut and return to tailor-made. now with 'legal' tailor-made available at prices reminiscent of the early '80's, smokers are returning to tailor-made in increasing numbers. TOTAL CTMC TAILOR-MADE (Domestic & DFX) 1994 (12 1994 (3 1991 1992 1993 Mae. Mos. Match) March) Volume 45.2 43.0 43.9 ".2 (bins) -8.3 -5.1 +2.0 +2.5 Change ITL Share 61.6 59.8 60.4 61.7 63.3 RBH Share 22.0 24.6 22.9 22.0 22.0 RJR Share 18.4 15.5 1 6.8 .16.2 14.7 Source: Industry Exchange PQ 4 00 @-o Lrl BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 W. PAR: 5- 3-94 : 12:30 0712224034;923/30 %^Lwo t. i ii .iliss2o% T. S. C. XMING - MAY 11194 IM KO.t 4(1) Although ITL's share in DFX tailor-made was steadily growing to levels similar to those in domestic tailor-made. It still lagged approximately 7 share points behind by early 1994, as a result of our late re-entry Into smuggled channels and the wide availability the opposition enjoyed as a result. Now that more of the tailor-made volume has shifted to the domestic market, ITL's strength. our share of total tailor- made is experiencing solid growth in the short term: primarily due to continued strong performance by du Maurier, and a rebounding In share terms by Player'$. By year and we anticipate ITL's share of total tailor-made will reach approximately 68%. In terms of the opposition, RBH share has declined steadily from its peak of activity in DFX markets in 1992. In the short term its share is holding fairly stable, at par with this 1991 level. Essentially what appears to have taken place with RBH's tailor- made trademarks is that their wide availability in smuggled channels, helped to generate some increased levels of trial; the result of which has been an overall stabilizing, of what was prior to 1991, a long term trend of decline. We will be monitoring these trademarks closely over the next few months to see whether they return to their historical trend. RJR. on the other hand, shows signs of solid growth in domestic volume but overall is declining through the-first three months of 1994 due to the virtual disappearance of DFX volume. As a result they are experiencing share declines in the short term. Certainly because of the recent nature of the activity in the marketplace, we will continue to monitor any now developments very closely over the next few months. In the short term at least, ITL appears to be benefitting from the strength of our tailor- made trademarks, and apparent lack of loyalty on the part of smokers towards some of the key opposition brands that they were purchasing in smuggled channels. 1`10 5 CD rl-i -4 r%J Q4 co @10 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 N. PM: 5- 3-84 ; 12:31 0712224034;-24/30 V" T.S.G. MUTING - MAY 11/94 I TEX NO. I 4Q) Tallor-Made Consumer Share*; TRADEMARK SHARES M (Total Smokers) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 (YTD) du Maurior 25.3 28.5 29.8 30.S 32.2 Player's 21.2 22.7 22.4 23.0 25.1 Export 12.6 11.7 12.2 12.4 11.3 Rothmans 5.4 5.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 Matinee 6.3 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.0 Craven 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 B & H 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.3 Source: CMA I As we sea from the chart, du Maurier and Player's we showing strong growth In early 1994 due to their continued ability to meet the needs of smokers. As noted, the major opposition trademarks,- with the exception of B & H. experienced growth or slowing of a declining trend in 1992 due to their participation In snw9gled channels. In 1994, as business moves back to domestic we sea Export back In decline. However, of interest has been the ability of Rothmans and Craven to hold stable at levels very close to 1992. CJ-4 00 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 NV. PAR' 5- 3-34 12:31 0712224034:*.25/30 TXPZRIAL TOBACCO LTD. CA MD A T.S.G. =TING MAY 11194 IM TRADEMARK SHARES 1%) IT < 215) 1890 1991 1992 1993 1994 (YTDI du Mauder 38.3 42.2 44.3 47.3 48.3 Player's 26.0 25.2 25.8 24.1 24.6 Export 19.1 16.9 15.5 14.8 13.9 Rothmans .8 .8 1.6 1.2 1.9 Independent .2 .1 .4 1.8 Source: CIVIA If we look at performance with the key target group of srnokers < 25, we see some interesting trends. Again, it Is noted that Rothmans is holding onto share gains experienced in 1992, and Independent brands (Generic-9) have increased in popularity in early .1 994. In terms of the 'Big 3' trademarks, Player's and Export are declining in share; both losing to du Maurier. While Export is declining overall, Player's Is aging (Its share Is now largest with smokers 25-34). du Mourler has veen very successful in providing smokers with better levels of smoothness, taste and flavour relative to Player's and Expert. Player's has suffered somewhat recently due to a perceived lack of taste relative to strength. In addition, Player's Madlurn has been ineffective in competing in the rn*dium strength segment which accounts for 20% of the market. NJ 7 CD rIQ -4 N.) (.04 00 '10 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 W. PAR: 5- 3-94 : 12:32 0712224084:.'26/30 nA &ILA.A" AV&M%,V%0 A-L&O . T. S. G. X=NG - MAY 11/94 ITM No., 4Q) TOP 6 BRANDS M (T < 25) 1992 1993 1994 (YTD) du Mourier 27.3 27.6 29.7 Player's Light 16.9 16.5 1 e.2 du Mourier Light 9.7 12.1 11.7 Expert Medium 5.4 0.5 5.6 Player's Filter 3.9 3.3 3.7 Source: CMA in terms of Individual brands, du mourier continues its dominance in consumer share terms with smokers < 25. Player's Light continues a slow trend of decline. du Maurier Light has grown due to strong performance with F < 25, while Export Medium remains a competitive threat due to its exceptional performance In Quebec. Total Fine Q= As noted previously, the contribution of total fine cut to the Industry is down to 1 1. 1 % on a three month basis through March 1994 (vs. 13.5% in January). The dynamics of this are a large decline in DFX volume, while domestic volume remains relatively stable. P.> 4 PO L--j co NO BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 W. RAR: 3-84 : 12:33 0712224OS4;:27130 IMPERTAL TOUCCO LTD. CANADA T.S. C. KEITTN - MAY 11/94 IM Mt 4(j) TOTAL CTMC FINE CUT (Domestic & DFX) 1994 (12 1994 13 1991 1992 1993 Mon. Mon. March Match) volume 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.8 (bins) +30.0 -7.7 -4.2 -1.4 % Change ITL Share 34.4 35.9 35.5 35.7 40.0 RBH Share 32.3 28.8 30.2 29.7 26.0 RJR Share 33.4 37.4 34.3 34.6 34.0 Source: Industry Exchange Excludes Sticks As premium and bonus fine cut account for slightly larger portions of the domestic business since the tax rollbacks (we anticipate the split between premium/bonus and low-weight fine cut to be approximately 65-46 in 1994), ITL has seen its share increased somewhat In the short term due to our strong presence in these categories. We anticipate ending 1994 with a share of approximately 39.5% of total fine cut. Similarly RJR's share has remained solid; its strength also lies in pren-dum and bonus. Conversely, RSH is experiencing a share decline in fine cut as low-weight accounts for a smaller proportion of overall volumes. RSH's share has been impacted Primarily due to a disappearance of its DFX business for low-weight. Relative to tailor-made, fine cut has become more expansive since the tax rollbacks. The chart below shows the now relative price of fine cut options compared to tailor- made in the largest flne cut market, Quebec. 9 C> BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 3-94 12:33 07122240%;$28130 EMPER UL TOBACCO LTD. CANADA T.S.C. KZ=IW - MAY 11/94 ITEK NO. i 4 0 I QUEBEC MCES 1200 Cigaroto Equivalents) Fob. 7, % of Tailor- Feb. 9, % of TaRor- 1994 Made Price 1994 Mad* Price Tailor-Made $46.99 100% $21-97 100% Premium Fine Cut* 32.84 89.9 20.93 95.3 135 Gram Fine Cut 24.41 51.9 16.34 74.4 StIcks 34.66 73.7 18.00 72.8 1 10 Gram Fine Cut 21.02 44.7 14.32 90 Gram Fine Cut 19.18 40.8 13.38 60.9 Raw Leaf 10-85 23. 7.60 34.1 uwnwm@ Includes price of tubes (brand name) Includes price of tubes (generic) Source: Price Survey C@l 10 rN BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 NY. 3- 3-54 ; 12:34 0712224084:929130 Tmpz;,AL 'TOBACCO LTD. CANADA T. S.C. MUTT= - MY 11/94 Im NO., 4(t) Fine Cut Consumer Shares: TRADEMARK SHARES (Total Smokersl 1991 1992 1993 1994 (YM) Player's 27.2 27.8 29.2 31.0 Export 23.8 28.1 29.0 26.2 Independent 2.3 2.9 5.3 8.6 Craven 8.0 5.0 5.4 7.4 selvedare 6.0 7.0 5.9 5.3 Number 7 2.1 2.0 3.3 4.6 Matinee 5.4 5.7 4.3 3.2 Source: CMA Overall, ITL's performance in fine cut continues to depend on Player's. (Matinee is steadily declining). Player's Is particularly strong In premium and bonus; however it continues to underperform in the low-weight portion of the market (22.2% share an a 3 month basis) where the RBH Superoll brands dominant. Export's performance virtually mirrors Player's. and it remains the key opposition trademark in fine cut. Summefy: Thera is no question these post few months have once again brought dramatic change to the market. As things settle, we will got a clearer picture of where the industry will be heading for the remainder of the year. In the meantime. ITL remains well positioned due to the strength of our trademarks domestically. PQ BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 Interim paper for TSG on Sub Continent exports to CIS. 1. Rationale * The group strategy on exports to the CIS/ FSU has hitherto been confined to addressing the premium segment with full international IFB's. Segments below this have not been fully tackled. partly as a result of the high manufacture costs of the European and American factories. - The group has an advantaec in being able to source from the sub continent manufacturers where the conversion costs are below that of major competition. Additionally, these countries have trade links that facilitate the entry of cigarettes into Russia and a number of the republics. * These advantages allow the establishment of a proper distribution structure and entry into sub premium catepones wiih quality filter brands and it is recommended that proper thought be eiven to planning the building of a limited range of BATCo brands in the region in these categories. Z Background: The Commonwealth of independent states (CIS) includes Russia and the 14 former Soviet union (M-1 republics. Latvia, Lithuania and Estor@a are more closely aligned to their Scandinavian neighbours: Western Group The Baltics The Caucasians Central Asian Russia Lar--ia Armenia Kazakstan Ukraine Lithuania Azerbaijan Uzbekistan Moldavia Estonia Georgia Kirgistan Belorus Tadjikistan Turkmenistan Approximately 1.4 billion cigarettes were exported from the subcontinent companies. mainly ftom India. The main volume is Capstan. There has been to date no attempt to co-ordinate these exports or rationalist the brands involved. The sub continent manufacturers are distinguished by the ability to produce at very low cost. aJlo%ing FOB pricing on 20's HLC KSFT product of circa USD 4,00 ,Alth acceptable return. In India. export incentives improve margins further. This is seen as a major tactical advantage upon which the group can capitalist. Additionally, several bi lateral arrangements are in place between sub continent countries and CIS states. mainly relating to repayment of loans from the former Soviet Union. These have facilitated trade links not available to other group N) CD countries. NJ PO U4 U4 BAT industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 Table I Shipment volumes (nOle) RNIMA Afanu I Counny Brand 1993 1994 rM ETC Russia Classic 9000 0 ITC Russia Capstan filter 657600 169000 MC Russia Commonwealth 1600 0 rrC Russia Houston 68000 68000 rTC Russia Wills NmN Cut 20000 0 rTC Russia Shire Leaves 4000 0 ITC Russia Dakota 19200 0 VST Russia Charminar 42336 0 VST Russia Charms 31480 8100 VST Russia Gold Filter 4 0 VST Russia Jupiter filter 4800 0 Sub total 901210 214000 ITC Kazzks= Dak-om 173000 0 ITC Kazaks= Tir 145190 0 rrc Kazakstan N 810 0 Sub total 319000 0 rrC Belarus Shirc LaaNes 32000 0 Grand Total 121522 10 214 Table 2. Shipment volumes (mille) PMUSTAN .WaAm Country Brand 1993 1994 YTD PTC Russia [la % ana 2000 0 FTC Russia Polo 10000 0 FITC Russia RMchmood 4000 0 Sub total 16000 0 PTC Uzbekistan Polo 29000 0 PITC Uzbekis= Richmond 20000 0 Smb total 49000 0 Grand Total 63000 0 Bangladesh have confirmed the arrangements that are in place with Russia regarding counter trade under which they have initiated exports of Jeans KSFT These exports commenced in 1994. A summary below indicates surplus capacity in various formats from each of the sub continent manufacturers. these indicate that the KS capacity is constrained in cenain instances although capacity exist in regular size, and Shen & slide formats. CD BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 3. Objectives of a Recommendations on suitable brands for CIS from the sub continent representing optimum portfolio with long term stratezc importance and warrantinS investment. # Recommendations on manufacturing source. a ReNiew of standardised pricing on agreed range of products. 0 Estimation of contribution i mifle for BATCo and subcontinent companies. 0 Recommendations on initial target countries. 4. Basis of evaluation: Given that the brands that %ill be recommended will be in the BATCo portfolio of trademarks, maximisation of LIK income will be a factor in evaluating the different mechanics that can be pursued. Contract manufacture on our behalf bv the sub continent manufacturers would ensure the necessary level of control. allow BATCo to handle the end country marketing and provide the margins directly in the UK -that could make such an effon cost effective. The constraints imposed by bi lateral trade agreements may restrict this approach and need to be investigated further. An underlying assumption is that any brands for CIS will be of international quality and that . although low price. %NiU be 20's HLC KSFT, There is. however, limited surplus capacity at this format (see Table 3). Smaller size products with cheaper pack styles are available from the sub continent with greater capacities and there is potential to address sub %TM segments in CIS. The difficulty in obtainine at this time reliable information on the consumption. incidence. segment categories in the CIS countries is acknowledged. The initial information available suggests that a 20% segment share of the VFM and Economy segment of the Central Asian republics could be 27 billion cigarettes per annum. It is this potential that the PLBU feels should be addressed initially. S. Current status of sub continent actit-ity: Below is a summary of exports from sub continent countries, by brand and manufacturer into the CIS. (see Table I & 2). PQ 4= r%j Q4 11@0 C> BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 CTC currently have limited capacity for their own domestic and Middle East requirements. In addition, their conversion costs are si@cantly higher than Other sub continent companies (Table 4) and they have therefore been excluded from this analysis. Table 3: Appro.,dmate surplus capacity in ffwLV month: Packi*size I Pakistan Baneladesh ITC VST KS 20's HI 66 20 50 130 KS 20's SC 60 30 - 40 RS 20's SS - - - 20 P'S 1 O's SS 140 --- 300 210 Total 266 50 350 0@ Table 4-. Conversion costs per rrOc in I sterling : 1993 ActuW IM Plan ITC 0.54 0.52 VST 0.49 0.43 BTC 0.95 0.97 CTC 1.53 1.41 PTC 0.53 0.49 BATUKE 1.65 1.59 BATBEN 2.62 2.47 5. Trade Mark: 0 Of the brands exported from the sub continent in 1993, the only protected marks are Capstan in Russia (BATCo mark) for which ITC pay a commission, and the VST marks that are held by VST in the end territories. * A check with GIPS has revealed that none of the above were approved for export to CIS 0 Bangladesh has started exporting 'Jeans' to CIS wef 1994. Again, there is no trade mark protection for the brand. A preliminary check indicates that both Capstan and Embassy are MY protected in BATCo registrations in the CIS republics and Ns is being confirmed. 6. Export incentires and trade arrangements: FIQ CD A surrunary of the tax benefits and export incentives for each of the sub continent manufacturers is attached, excluding ITC indicating the varying levels of benefit. N) C) BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 Under the framework of the Economic Co-operation Organisation (ECO), trade protocols exist between the Govemments of Pakistan. Iran, Turkey and all the Central Asian republics. The benefit of this protocol is in the form of free trade between these countries and also assistance is provided in joint vennires within the ECO network. There is no restriction on consumer goods in the other states of the FSU. BTC started the export of Jeans KSFT through a barter arrangement between the Goverriments of Bangladesh and Russia. The cigarettes are sold through a local agency and 101/6 of the CEF price is received in USD and the balance converted to Tika at the agreed Bank of Bangladesh exchange rate. The 101% retention is under review and may be increased in the future. The Indian Government signed a protocol in early 1993 for a 10 year period with the Russian Federation against debt repayment. The CIS countries are also covered through the Russian Federation The exchange rate agreed was Exed at I rouble equivalent to 19 Rs. Although Tobacco, Tea, Medicines, Textiles and leather products are covered, the original protocol does not include cigarettes. There is lobbmg being undertaken and this may be amended in the 1994! 95 list due at the end of Mav 1994. 7. Information on large countries: The recentIv announced Customs Union (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and I Tadjikistan) opens a market estimated currently at 45 / 50 billion per annum. It is anticipated that the demand will rise to 65 billion cigarettes over the next five Turkmenistan is a desirable export market, having no domestic cigarette manufacturing and little tobacco farming. Turkmenis= and Tadjikistan market combined estimated currently at 14.5 billion. In common with the other FSU states the major segment remains Plains (approximately 25 % currently but expected to decline in the face of imports and probable domestic manufacture start ups). Below this segment, papirossi represents apprommately 3% share and will disappear completely in the next few years. The Economy segment domestic filter brands are poised for growth. Share in this segment is currently 2 Wo and expected to increase rapidly to 38 %. T'he VFM segment of the market mainly represented by imports of good quality I filter brands such as IVusting (i.e. quasi - international brands) is forecast to remain ro stable at around 34%. The group has the marks that can effectively be bu@t in this C) category and the suggested development brands include Embassy, Horizon and NJ Capstan. Q-4 %D CD BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 An examination of the trade mark register indicates that all these brands me kiniversafly registered in the FSU and although the final decision %%ill be subject to debate, we believe the principles should be tabled. The final. premium IFB segment in which our Lucky Strike, SE555, Pall Mau and Kent compete will grow from an estimated I 8 to 20*/* SoM. Recommendations: The above information suggests that the comapny should look at the establishment of a unit to tackle the problems of distribution in the end markets to puli through the identified brands and establish proper marketing for the long term future. The WM segment of QIFB's and sub I is the target segment which can be effectively addressed from the perspective of the sub continent manufacturers. Embassy. Horizon, Capstan and BeWr are representative of the brands that could be utilised in this segment which have tactical significance in the group. This is not to indicate that they are the only choices and consumer research would be required to finafise the best options ITC, VST and PTC all have the capacity and the low conversion cost that can pro,@ide the basis for this strategy. Of these. only PTC currently has the necessary trade protocols in place but there are hopeful prospects for the Indian companies. BTC has a capacity constraint that,wiD only be addressed by the end of 1994 early 95. but this could be addressed by morning to 3 shift working. 6 More detailed irdomation is required on the import duty structure applicable in the various republics to pin down the selling prices that can be applied to this trade. It is important to note that the low volumes that have been shown by the Indian companies in 1994 are the result of the introduction of duty deposits (200"'s of messed duty) in Russia required from the importers. 0 The examination of the cost structures of the sub continent manufacturers would then need to be addressed to obtain the brand contributions. These could be available for the next TSG meeting. rQ -4 CD 00 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 Tax Export incentives- PAKISTAN TOBACCO CO. LTD. a) Customs Duty and Sales Tax draw back on imported material for use in cigarette exports. b) Exemption from Custom Duty and Sales Tax. C) 3 M cheaper finance facility av"able from Financial Institutions against I-C. d) Lower Income Tax rates on export profits. V. S. T. P; a) TAX BENEFIT - Profits realised on Cigarette "ports is exempt from Income Tax. The profit percentage to be appJed shall be profit before tax/gross tumover of the company as a whole, which involves both domestic and export business. This rate will be applied on export turnover for arriving at the exempt profits. b) Concessional Import duty (duty savings on making and packing machines - 2211,18) on capital goods is available subject to all "port obligation of 4 times the CIF value of the goods imported. C) Duty free imports of %NNS (cigarette paper. PBT, FT Rods, Foil, BOPP SCPL or HLF. CBGs) subject to an export obligation of minimum mice the CIF value of imports. d) AU cigarette exports are exempt from local taxes and central excise duty. BANGLADESH TOBACCO CQ.NtPANT a) A drawback of all import duties suffered on the raw materials used in the cigarettes exported. TMs is currently equivalent to a USSO.60 per Mille. b) For corporation tax purposes the profit (effectively Gross Contribution - but we need to clarify in this yeaes tax assessment) is charged at 2011,16 rather than the normal rate of 4 Vlo. l9th April 1994 C) N) CD BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 -7 2. Tobacco 2.1 Objectives (1993 objectives are shown in brackets) 2.1.1 B.A.T is the most international Tobacco company. It has the number one market share position in excess of 35 countries and a leading position in many more countries. Its objective is to retain and develop this position by growing: volume and share in existing domestic markets, exports-, through investments in new markets; through other expansion opportunities, such as acquisitions. 2.1.2 The overall objective for B.A.T Industries is to be the premier Tobacco company. 2.1.3 Premier means: meeting the needs of today's and tomorrov/s customers with particular respect to brands and products-, being in a leadership position in terms of having the fastest growth in profitable market share, - outperforming the competition by being the low cost provider, with superior quality, imagery. ingenuity and originality: - organising ourselves for maximum competitive advantage to leverage the Group's weight. - exerting our leadership in the industry by optirmsing our external relations and meeting the needs of the communities in which we operate; - attracting and retaining only the highest quality people and developing and training them. 2.1.4 The volume objectives are to achieve overall growth of 6.0% p.a. (7.5 % p. a.). Rationale: 77te 1994-190 A Im, t projected volume growth of 4.2% Pa. This resulted in B.A. rs world market share hehig projected to rise from 10. 4% in 1993 to 12.8% in 1998. These figures exclude the whime from the acquisition of American Tobacco. BA TCo projected that Philip Morris' vohime would grow at 3. 1% P-a over the Plan period. taking their marketshare front 12.4% to 13.9% if B.A. T wished to equal Philip Morris' market share br 199R (avsitming that we complete the acquisition of American Tobacco and that we take, market share from the other competitors). volumes would ro need to grow of S.5% p-a lit order to obtain similar efficiencies of operation as Philip ,Worris, it is dourahle that B.A. Tshorild close the gap between its volume and that of Philip Morris, which Hill be achieved AY the 6. 0Y6 objective. 00 un I BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 2. -Tobacco 2.1.5 It is an objective to increase market share steadily in existing domestic markets by increasing profitable volumes by 1.5% p.a. (2.0%pa) from a 1993 base. Rationale: Our domestic markets are projected by BA Mo to decline by a weighted average of (0. 6) % p. a o ver the plait period The 1994-1998 Plait projected domestic voltime growth of 1. 2 % p. a, implying an overall market share increase of 1. 8 % p. a. The markets where we have market share in excess of 70% are projected to grow at 2. 0 pa. while our other domestic markets are projected lo decline by (1.3)% pa. If we contime to asmime that our volume grows at the same rate as the market in those markets where we have a market share in excess of 70916, our other domestic markets must grow by a weighted average of 0.8% pa. over the plan period (against their current projeclion of 0.3% p.a.) to achieve overall growth of 1.5% pa. ie. a market share increase of 2. 1% p.a. againsl that planned in the 1994-1998 Plan of 1.6%p.a The objective was reducedfrom 3.5% p. a to 2. 0% last year. It has been reduced again to 1. 5% p. a. and isstill very challenging. 2.1.6 It is an objective to increase exports by I 0. Wo p.a. (IZ5%pa) on average over the five plan years from a 1993 base; - Rationale: Our current export markets are projected by BA 7Co to grow by a weighted average of 1.0% pa over the plait period. 7he 1994-1998 Plait projected export voInme growth at 13. /?/a p. a hut this is heavily dependent on gaining share in China and eastern Europe. 2.1.7 It is an objective to become established as a domestic producer in two (unchanged) new markets on average each year, with an objective of increasing volumes by 3% p.a. on average. Rationale: 7he work within New Business Development continues to result in a large inimber of opportunities. Approximately a dozen negotiations are expected to be conducted during 1994. with more opportunities with a longer time scale. II is expected that a); average of at least Avo of these a year can be converted into investments, although the member nray be higher in the earlier plan years then tailing off. 7he initial rohime in Hungary was ahout 10hn and the Ukraine is expected to be about l4bn eventually. An objective of 3% is equivalent to two investments of about 8bn each. 2.1.8 1.5% p.a. increase in existing domestic volumes combined with I 00/6 p.a. increase in exports and 3% p.a. increase from new markets would result in 6.0% p.a. growth overall. 2.1.9 Running through all three of these sources of volume growth is the objective to grow International Brands by IO/* p.a. (ifitchmiged). This growth objective would be increased if we changed our strategy on licensed manufacturing. C:) %.0 co 2 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 2. Tobacco Rationale: 77k, marketfor 1Bs is projected by BA TCo to grow at 3.5% pa., and B.A. T has beer) outgrowing the market by 3% to 4% pa. (with the excepfion of 1993). A 10% objective ass-times that performance retunis io that of ihe early 1990s based on the strength and range of our I& 7he market shares of our Intentational Brands in the largest markets of the world are shown in Tables I and 2. Thev show that our brand shares are not high in any market, and we have Pro IB wah a world market share of more Than 0.5% (compared with 6.6%for 11arlboro, or 5% excluding the USA). These are volume shares. Valtie shares would be higherfor the frill revenue 1Bs but would Plot change The picture substamially. 2.1.10 Although they have not been built into the volume growth objectives'. there are expansion opportunities in addition to those in the new markets: Markets where we have a business which is too small for the priority of the market, for example, France, Italy and Spain. Markets where we have either an Associate company or where there is a significant minority shareholding in our subsidiary. Markets where we could gain or increase our presence through the acquisition candidates that are currently available, such as the recently announced acquisition of American Tobacco. Each of these opportunities will be addressed by a project team. Rationale: We are under-represented in malty of the worlds largest and most profitable markets, as shown in table 3. but Mere are now specific opportunities in many of these markets. Erpansion in developed markets would balance the risk of investing in developing markets, particularly with respect to remittable earnings. where there is a minority or ever; majority third party shareholding. we may be able lo buy a greater share of the bushte.Lv at afitsfiflable price. and this is being evaluated. 2.1.11 Cost objective: The business will enhance its global capability as a low-cost provider of goods and services by reducing unit costs in real terms each year by a minimum of 5% (unchanged). This objective will be converted into specific, measurable productivity improvements for each area of the business. All investment programmes to achieve cost reduction must demonstrate an adequate return. and must not compromise the quality of the products and services. The ultimate cost objective can only be determined by benchmarking our costs against our competitors. Rafinnale: If B.A. T is the low cast provider in its major markets it will he less vribierable to price wars. The 1994-1998 Operating Group Plans rawhide specific prodixtivity improvements for each area of the business, some above and some below 5Y6. ln general, j% p.a. is accepted as a realistic overall target by the operating management. but thisshould be rested against competitive benchmarks. 00 3 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 2. Tobacco 2.1.12 Snancial objectives for the Group's Tobacco activities over the next five years are to achieve an average 101/4 P.L increase in net turnover (unchatiged) and a IO'/'* p.a. increase in trading profits (unchanged). Ratio?h7le: The 1994-1998 Plwi showed turnover increasing at 6% p.a. atid trading profit increasing at II Yo p. a. (excluding the brands exchange). 7he operating groups were therefore expecting to increase margins stifficiently to accounifor an adMional 5% p.a. trading prnfly growth. Given a Volume objective of 7. 5% pa., and i?#7ation of 3% to 4% pa. the 10% lurnoiter objective implies a small decrease in.real prices atmilor mix changes, domestic substitittion for export markets. or new markets at initially low prices. 7he objective remains at least to maintain real prices, although in some of our markets this is currently unrealistic. Ecopromies of scale and a real unit cost reduvion should lead to a trading profit increase higher than the increase in turnover. although this hay riot been huilt into the objective. 2.1.13 Leaf. There is an objective to increase profitable Leaf exports. Rationale: A Ithmigh the total world market is likely to remain in over-supplyfor at least another opie to two years, %which will continue to depress Leaf prices, there is expected to be a shortage of high quality Tobacco. Ais is as a remill of the consumer shift to higher quality cigarettes in the new, markets. the increasing quality of VFM products, and the growth of IBs. High quality Leaf and the provision of advice tofarmers, is one of B.A. rs key competitive strengths. particularly when negotiating positions in new markets. The Group is alreaA, a major supplier to the world market and has started to improve the intentational coordination of its business and to use one Leaf dealer wherever possible exienialty. It is therefore expected that the volume and profits can be grown. 2.1.14 Other Commercial Activities: There is a continuing objective to reduce the involvement in other commercial activities except where these are directly supportive to the tobacco business. Rafimiale: As we have no particular strengths to offer in these businesses, it would be better to foctis our available fiiiancial twid management resources where we do have strengths. CD 4 co co BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 > Table I B.A.T USIB Market Sion s Largest Markels CL (markti-Am 2M C 1993 Actual 1 1998 Plan CD 1993 1993 Lucky Kool Kent Viceroy Pall Capri Lucky Kool Kent Viceroy Pall Capri 0 Market B.A.T Strike Mail Strike Mail CL Size Volume 0 USA 484.0 50.6 - 3.o - 1.0 2.4 - 0.3 0.6 0 0.6 - C Japan 331.3 13.5 1.2 0.2 2.6 - - 0.1 1.3 0.3 3.0 - - 0.1 -3 Russia 220.0 7.7 0.1 - - 0.1 0.3 - 0.4 - - 0.6 0.4 - CD Deny 164.5 24.2 1.7 - - 1.1 - 4.1 - - 0.5 - Brazil 129.7 95.1 0.2 - 3.1 1.2 - 0.3 - - 0.1 3.9 - 811 South Korea 105.5 0.5 - 0.2 - - 0.3 - - 0.5 - 0.5 Italy 99.6 4.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 - - 0.8 Poland 94.7 0.4 - France 93.6 1.6 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.2 0 < UK 88.1 0.0 - - Turkey 86.0 0.3 India 81.1 60.7 - - (D Spain 74.2 3.2 2.6 0.5 4.5 3.3 Philippines 66.8 0.3 - - - CD Mexico 54.6 0.5 - - Total World 5262.4 548.3 0.29, 0.30, 0.34, 0.36, 0.16, 0.081 0.58, 0.221 0.46 0.42 0.18 0.08 3MM-1 OATCo Tobacco Market Information database. 1"3 figures are the latest estimates in the 1"44"s Plan 0 Noles: USA market size has been load-adjusted; unadjusted figuic was 461.4bn. 0 China - market size 1647 bn, l"V93 projected market growth 1.4%.1998P)3 projected D.A.'r growth 13.5% Indonesia is not included in the list above as the White market site is 20 billion. although the total market size including Kicicks is 160.6 billion Cr W 696MUZ Table 2 CL C D.A.T UK and Other IB Market Shares in the Wol: d's Largest Nlarket W (ma[kci size oyer 50 WHO Lill.19211 r+ CD 0 1993 Actual 1998 Plan CL 0 1993 1993 State Denson John Barclay Kim Holly State Benson John Barclay Kins Holly 0 Markel B.A.T Express & Mayer wood Express & Player wood Ske Volume S55 Hedges Gold s5s [ledges Gold Leaf Leaf CD USA 484.0 50.6 0.1 0.0 Japan 331.3 13.5 - - - - - Russia 220.0 7.7 <0. I - <0, 1 0.3 7 ? Gemiany 164.5 24.2 - 0.9 7 - - Brazil 129.7 95.1 - - 14.1 ? 0 South Korca 105.5 0.5 - - Italy 98.6 4.0 0.7 Poland 94.7 0.4 - CD Frdnce 93.6 i.6 <0. I o.7 UK 88.1 0.0 - - - 0 Turkey 86.0 0.3 - 0.9 1.0 India 81.1 60.7 - - - Spain 74.2 3.2 - Philippines 66.8 0.3 - Mexico 54.6 0.5 - - - 0 0 Total World 5262.4 548.3 0.431 0.271 0.211 0.091 7 1 0.371 0.701 0.311 0.27 0.15 ? ? E, 3 SUKU: DATCo Tobacco Markel Information database. 1993 Figures art the latest estimates in the 1994-1998 Plan Cr Notes: USA market size has been Wad-adjusted; unadjusted fl8ura was 461.4brt. China - market size 1647 ba, 199SJ93 projected market growth 1.4%,1998/93 projected B.AT growth 13.8% Indonesia is not included in the list above as the White market size is 20 billion, although the fut2l market size Including Kreicks is 160 6 billion W 066EZLZOZ CL Table 3 B.A.T's Market SharftL In the World els market size yver So billion in 19931 Q CL Market Share % Actuals Market Share % Forecasts Projected 0 m 1994-1998 Plans % 0 1993 fro Growth C 1998193 1998193 3 B.A.T 1988 1989 1990 1991 I"2 1"3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Market B.A.T CD Volume Growth Growth USA 484.0 50.6 11.0 11.4 103 11.2 1 1.9 10.3 10.7 10.0 9.5 97- 9.3 -3.0% 4.8% Japan 331.3 13.5 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 0.2% 3.9% Russia 220.0 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 Germany 164.5 24.2 17.7 17.1 17.4 19.3 19.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 J.0 1.2 0.3% 0.0% 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.0 21.9 22.8 -2.0% 4.8% Brazil 129.7 95.1 79.4 79.7 81.9 83.7 83.0 79.7 80.5 80.5 80.5 80.5 80.5 3.0% 0.8% 0 < South Korea 105.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 -0.1% 9.8% 5' Italy 98.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3-8 -1.5% 71% 0 Poland 94.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0% 1.0% (D France 93.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 -1.4% -5.9% 0 UK 88.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ao 0.0 0.0 -1.0% 0.0% 03 Turkey 86.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 3.0% 14.1% India 81.1 60.7 67.9 68.5 71.1 72.2 73.8 74.9 73.3 ".8 74.2 74.3 74.3 4,8% 4.6% Spain 74.2 3.2 6.8 6.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 4.7 69 7.8 8.4 &9 9.0 0% 13.8% (A Philippines 66.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 o.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8% -3.9% :r 0 Mexico 54.6 0.5 59.9 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.2% 0.6% 0 Total over 2172.7 262.6 12.1 50bn Cr Total under 3089.7 285.7 9.2 50bn W Spume: BATCo Tobacco Market Information database. 1993 rlgufcs M the latest estimates in the 1994-1996 Plan Notes: USA market size has been load-adjusted; unadjusted Figure was 461.4bn. > China - market size 16-47 bn. 1998193 projected market growth 1.4%. 1"&93 projected B.A.T growth 13.9% Indonesia is not Included above as the White market site is 20 billion, although the total market size including Kreteks is 160.6 billion to to co 166MUZ Tobacco Strategy Group Terms of Reference and Objectives 1. Terms of Reference The original Terms of Reference for the Tobacco Strategy Review Team, established in 1984 and last reviewed in 1988. are set out in Appendix 1. In recent years, the formation of regional trading blocs, the opening up of monopoly markets, the spread of communications, the accelerating popularity of international brands, and the consequent growth of exports, have combined to create new conditions in the global cigarette market. The Terms of Reference of the TSG need to be amended to optimise the Group's position in these new conditions. Proposed new Terms of Reference for discussion at the TSG meeting on the I I th May 1994 are set out below: (i) To agree the strategy. objectives, policies and priorities for the Tobacco business. and to review its performance; (ii) To agree the marketing strategies for the International. Regional and major Domestic brands as proposed by their brand owners; (iii) To agree which management team has the responsibility for each market under the principle of end market control, (iv) To receive appropriate management information to be able to manage the Tobacco business by end market. (v) To agree marketing strategies for the resulting regions or zones of influence as proposed by the responsible management team; (vi) To agree the priorities for new business development; All the above areas will be reviewed periodically. (vii) To cgef'd`inate Group-wide long-term production capacity planning; (viii) - To coordinate Group-wide product quality initiatives. (ix) To -.C. the use of Group-wide R&D and Technical resources, and agree priorities; (x) To co;qdnate the Group strategy on Leaf. (xi) To co .o;@@inate the Group's approach to purchasing; C) (xii) To ensure that a sufficient cadre of international managers is recruited, trained and developed-, LOW L-W BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999 (xiii) To co-9;din"ate the Group's unified approach on smoking issues, (xiv) To ensure that optimum protection is given to the Group's trademarks; (xv) To ensure that "best practice" in all operational areas is communicated and adopted across the Group. (xvi) To resolve any conflicts that arise between Operating Groups which cannot be resolved bilaterally. 2. Tobacco Objectives The follo%ring objectives for the Tobacco business were established as part of a Group level discussion of objectives for B.A.T Industries in February and March 1994. There is a continuing objective to achieve growth in volume and profits in tile Tobacco business, building on the Group's world-wide strengths and establishing leadership positions in selected profitable markets. The aim is to have a high and increasing proportion of the business in leadership positions in profitable markets and segments. This will be achieved by growing market share in domestic markets, continuing to grow exports. investing for the medium term in new markets. bv strengthening the competitive position of International Brands, and by improving intra-Group co-operation. The recent recession and difficulties in the Tobacco business have highlighted the need to ensure that we provide products that meet consumers' needs and add value to those products through branding. We need to strengthen our brand equity particularly in our VFM brands and to maintain the value of our mature franchises. There will be particular emphasis on upgrading products and processes and on cost reduction concentrating on indirect as well as direct costs. Recognising the central importance of management, there will be specific plans to improve the quality of recruitment and of management training and development. The priority aims for 1994 are: (i) To grow volume and market share: For all cigarettes (budget: volumes +3.5%-, strategic objective: volumes +7.5%), For International Brands (budget: volumes +1 1.5%-, strategic objective: volumes +IO%)-. (ii) To improve the Group's competitive position in the major mature domestic markets of the US and Germany, and to safeguard its position in Brazil and in r%j some key BATCo markets. C) PQ (iii) To tackle the Group's weakness in Lights, JZ1. -It BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 23 April 1999