C% MO. SECRET Adrft 1982 B.A.T. BOARD GUIDELINES PUBLIC AFFAIRS a% PO (-n as. BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 201766257 :E CL 04 OD 110.2 c E 0 201766258 CL C4 C*j B.A.T BOARD MIDELINES SMOKING ISSUES PART 1 ASSUMPTIONS 1. Associations of various diseases with smoking are regarded by most"authorities, the media and the general public in developed countri es as having been established. 2. there will be a reduction in the incidence of certain -associated diseases which will be represented by 2,smoking anti-smoking forces as a consequence of product modifications and hence as evidence of causation. 3. Although no sudden breakthrough is envisaged to solve the smoking and health problem, scientific research will give rise to products seen by doctors to be of less risk. 4. Nevertheless smoking will continue as a widely practised habit albeit with a zero or negative growth rate in certain markets. S. Psychopharmacological aids (marijuana, nicotine chewing gum etc.) will 'continue in wide use. Certain drugs will be permitted and become accepted for social use. 6. 'Public Interest in questions relating smoking to health will be -maintained in developed countries and will continue to increase at an accelerated rate in the, majori ty of lesser developed markets. This enhanced interest will be provoked by supra-Pational bodies, e.g. World Health Organisation (WHO), International Union Against Cancer (ul CC) , by committees set up under WHO auspices and by the European Co-ordinating Committee on Smoking and Health (ECCSH) formed by anti-smoking organisations of the EEC member countries. 7. Smokers will continue to look to the industry to develop products which the former consider will reduce the-risks to health. 8. Smokers, industry employees the who and retail trades and tobacco farmers will look t; th*A@dustry to defend their nterests and will be increasingly w ng to play a part in this nce. Pi -4 01% 01% BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 -2- 9. company employees will increasingly be asked questions about smoking issues. 10. The Tobacco Industry will only be able to defend itself aIdequately against attack if it presents a united response. II... Competitors will honour industry agreements if it is to their advantage to do so. While in some markets a MC) re aggressive approach to smoking issues will be taken by the industry, what is seen by governments, the media and the general public as inflexibility and a reluctance by the industry to present a less recognisably partisan view will create hostility among intelligent and fair-minded people. 13. The industry will be criticised Increasingly-for spending substantial sums on advertising which will be seen as encouraging the smoking habit. Nevertheless, there will be no valid evidence in the developed world that brand advertising increases total consumption.. In developing countries, research will not show identical results. Despite the evidence that advertising restrictions in developed countries do nothing to reduce cigarette consumption, the anti-smoking movement will continue to press for restrici tons or bans on cigarette advertising. 14. Medical authorities i6d anti-smoking pressure groups will continue to influence governmnts, the media and thus public opinion to oppose smoking. I 15. An area of consensus will open between doctors and the tobacco industry as-product development continues and as doctors identify the role of I ess hazardous cigarettes'. 116. There will be an increase in the number-of countries introducing anti-smoking education in schools with' a view to eradicating the smoking habit. 0 ase G vernments and medical authorities will be concerned to,incre control over the industry ana I ts products. In some case @'the authorities will press for the laboratory work associated with control to be financed by the industry. 18. Legal restrictioni on smoking, on the industry and on the marketing and advertising of its products will increase and there will be more pressure on the industry to make further concessions.- C7% BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 -3 - 7" 119. There will be a shift in public opinion, mainly in developed countries, in favour of stricter enf a rcesient of existing laws but this will be offset to some extent by a widening resentment of further intrusion on personal liberties. 12O.' There will be a tendency on the part of certain scientific experts to relate specific smoke constituents to particular diseases. 121. Carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, nitrosamines and other constituents will become increasingly regarded by certain scientific experts as health hazards for smokers. I 2Z. Governments will '@xert pressure to achieve maximum limits on specific smoke constituents such as tar, nicotine, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. 123. League tables will be published in more countries and will be enlarged by the inclusion of further chemical substances in tobacco smoke. There will be demands for a system for simplifying this information. Nicotine will continue to be considered by some doctors as less harmful to the majority of smokers than tar. Nevertheless nicotine dependency will be attacked and claims made that nicotine is addictive.' Consequently, manufacturers will be encouraged to lower nicotine levels further and/or im rove the .p ratio of nicotine to tar. 1 25. Some published work on animals will show nicotine to be weakly carcinogenic., - 26. Governments will demand that health warning clauses become increasingly more severe, often stating that some diseases are caused primarily by smoking. 127.@ Because, in some animal tests, cigar tar is more tumorigenic than cigarette tar, certain authorities will regard the smoking of Cigars as being more harmful.., 28. The higher levels of carbon monoxide deliveries from cigars,will be claimed by certain authorities to be more harmful to both smokers and non-smokers. 129. People will continue to smoke cigarettes in different ways and "outside the industry will establish that league investigations tables can be misleading. BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 Z> -4- 30. Statistical evidence will begin to materialise that the new generation of low tirzcigarettes present less risk to the health of smokers. Certa-in scientific experts will endorse this. Health authorities will encourage the industry to pursue a course of product modification but there will be no,-single product solution. 31. I , to products will have more assurance for consumers if health authorities are seen to be involved. 32i. Reduction in biological activity per cigarette will be accepted by most doctors as the main desirable criterion for the next few, years at least and will lead -to renewed demands for the re-introduction of tobacco substitutes. 33. Governments will issue guidelines or instructions with respect to additives and tobace& substitutes and increasingly will demand data on inhalation toxicity. 34. When significantly modified cigarettes achieve substantial sales or wide acceptance opponents of smoking who had previously advocated them will oppose them. 1 35. Incfeasingly, governments will require a declaration on packs of the delivery of certain smoke constituents and the level of inclusion of any non-tobacco materials. 36. In smoking and health terms we shall continue to achieve technically, with all-tobacco cigarettes, all that some experts consider can be done with-'substitutes that have been developed so far. 37. some anti-smokers will continue to believe that low nicotine smoking makes ing easier and will, therefore, encourage its , quf tti devel opment. 38. Those in other industries will seek advantage from the threat to the tobacco industry. (a)' Alternative natural materials will be considered for I-,exploitation in cigarettes. Alternatives to nicotine wi-I 1be explored as will alternatives to the smoking habit. (c) Attempts will be made to exploit the wish to give up smoking. r1j re CY\ BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 39. Companies will increasingly market cigarettes for which the consumer will infer health benefits. 40. (a) Generally any change in the legal position will impose greater liability on manufacturers to t@`eir consumers. W @,there is room for manoeuvre towards a more credible public Cry position on the part of the company and of the indust (as 'seen by governments, the media and the general publ ic) on 'the primary Smoking and Health issue within the legal contraints. For the time being, howevdr, the U.S. legal position will deny the industry the opportunity to claim low tar cigarettes as being less hazardous (as alleged by certain medical authorities) or to engage in moderation campaigns. 41. There will be increasing pressure for the introduction of systems of differential excise taxes for cigarette products with high or low smoke deliveries. 42. Smoking will continue to be cri ti on the grounds of social costs, although comprehensive studies now' being undertaken will strengthen the industry's position on these issues. 43.' Increasingly, governments will use excise as a health measure - -raising excise taxes to penal levels. 144. Smoking will become an increasingly unacceptable social-habit. it will be clearly established that the social unaccep iab issue - overlaid on 'the medical controversy, the anti-smoking attacks in the media. and their endorsement through government legislation - will 'affect industry growth. Non-smokers will 'iy vocal and Passive Smoking will increase in become increasing, importance ai an issue and be used initially- to develop the social unacceptability of smoking through demands for further legislation restricting smoking in publ C@03 -aces ('Public Smoking'). 45. Fdioer work on Passive Smoking wi I"'continue to provide a t I for,increasing allegations that co stituents in side-stream ,Z.<@@hive a deleterious effect on nonsmokers. i"46'. Smoking during pregnancy will be accepted by most people as I . hazardous to the health of the unborn child. 47. Mutagenic studies',tha\@ smoking by males will adversely affect progeny could wel MCI nti nue to be published and commented upon. Q CY'. LA BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 48. Opponents of smoking in developed countries will increasingly criticise the industry's operations in Tht rd World countries on the following grounds, in particular: (a") Lack of and ineffectual warning clauses. 66 Failing to disclose infoi@mation on tar and, increasingly nicotine and carbon monoxide levels. (c) Selling brands of considerably higher tar and nicotine' content than those. in the developed countries. (d) Applying double standards by selling the same brand as is -l'oped countries but with a higher tar and sold in deve nicotine content than the domestic version in the brand's country of origin. (e) Adversely affecting food producti h ,@Iby encouraging the local growing of tobacco and the expansion of this growth. (f) De-forestation for flue-curinj purposes. (g) Using advertising and promotional methods not permitted in developed countries and which encourage non-smokers, - particul arly the young, to take up smoking and smokers to smoke more. March 1982 V. PQ BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 5 '@@SSIIMPTIWIS A Addi cti ve P.3 No. 24 Addi ives P.4 No. 33 Advertising P-2 No. 13 Po. 19 .............. P.2 Plo. 25 Afi-imal P.3 . .......................................... P.3 No. 27. ..... king Education: P.2 No. 16 @n i mo No. 13 "Anti-smoking Movement P.2 Anti-smoking Pressure Groups; P.2 No. 14 B. Biological Activity P.4 Ho. 32 C. Carbon Monoxide P.3 Ho. 21 ................................................ P.3 Ho. 22 . ....... P.3 No. 28 .. ........................... P.6 No. 48 (b) . . ... . . . . . . . . : P.3 NO. 25 Causation P-1 NO. 2 cigar; P.3 No. 27 . ................................................ P.3 No. 28 Competitors a P-2 110. 11 Consumption P.2 No. 13 D. Declaration on Packs P.4 No. 35 ................. PA H o. 48 (f) De-forestation_---- Developed Countries 4. P. 6 No. 48 ............................................ : P.6 No. 48 W No. 48 (d) ..................................... 1; P-6 ...... P.6 No. 48 (g) . . P. 5 No. 41 Doctors P.2 NO. is ,-,,,E. E.C.C.S.H. (European Co-ordinating Committee on Smok a' nd Health) P-1 No- 6 E.E.C P.1 No. 6 Excise I- *..P.S No. 43 Pi C) C)% BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 -F. P.6 Ao. 48 (f) Flue-Curing Food Production 6@ PA No. 48 (c) G. Growing of Tobacco PA No. 46 (e) H. Health Hazards P.3 No. 21 Healt No. 26 Warning Clauses P.3 1. Inhalation Toxicity PA No. 33 International Union Against . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P.1 No. 6 L. League Tables P.3 No. 23 .;.ii P.3 140. 29 L g ;..'..P.2 Mo. 18 ... P.5 Mo. 40 (a) ..................... P.5 No. 40 (b) ......... : I P.5 No. 40 (c) Legislation P.5 Mo. 44 Less Hazardous Cigarettes P.2 No. 15 Lw Mi coti ne PA Mo. 37 Loi@ Tar P.4 Mo. 30 .............................................. P.5 Plo. 40 (c) Low Tar Cigarettes P. No. AO (c) M. Marijuana P.1 Ho. 5 Marketing P.2 No. 18 Maximum Limits;. P.3 No. 22 ........ P.5 No. 40 (c) Moderation Campa g Modifications PA No. 31 Mutogenic Studies P.5 No. 47 N.- W"otine c@z P.3 No. 22 'IC ............................ P.3 No 24 ............................................... P.3 No. 44 ........ PA No. 38' (b) ........................................ ............................................ P.5 No. 48 (c) ,7 ........ Chewing Gum- etc P.1 No. 5 Nicotine Dependancy No. 24 ........................ PA Nitrogen Oxides-:-.,!-> P.3 No. 22 NJ trosamines. . '@P.3' No. 21 Non-Tobacco MateH @l PA No. 35 CD ON BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 -3- 0. Oxides of Nitrogen.....; P.3 No. 21 P. Passive Smoking P.5 No. 44 .@.P.s No. 45 No. 19 Pregnancy P.5 No. 46 Produ6t,Qevelopment P.2 No. 15 Prod P.1 No. 2 :::.P.4 No. 30 .... P.5 Mo. 47 Progeny : Promotional No. 4 -Psychopharmacological Aids; P.1 No. 5 Public Smoking P.5 No. 44 Ouitting PA No. 37 R. Restrictions P.2 No. 13 .Risk P.1 No. 3 ......................................... P.1 No. 7 ................................................ PA No. 30 S;! Side Stream Smoke P.5 No. 45 Smoking by Males P.5 ;N(. 47 Smoking in Public Places P.5 No. 44 Social Costs P.5 No. 42 Social Unacceptability P.5 No. 44 Statistical Evidence PA No. 30 Substitutes PA No. 36 T. Tar 61%, P.3 No. 22 ......................... P.3 No. 24 .......... P.3 No. 27 ........ P.6 Mo. 48.,(b)- ........... @ -g- ..P.6 No. -48<(-,d.) .......... ; :::::..P.6 rd World tries No Tobacco Farmers 0 ....... P.1 N No. 32 Tobacco Substitutes P.4 ................... 4@& P.4 No. 33 Tumorigenic I ....... P.3 No. 27 .......... 'P.1 No. 6 U. U. I.C.C. 06-0606.,. Unborn Childi.::::::*:::,::: ...P.S No. 46 -4 BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999 -4- W. Warning Clauses. P.6 -z. No. 48 (a) W.H.O. (World P.1 No. 6 Wholesale and e,taf raties 0.1-, No. 8 -77' Y. Young PA No. 48 (g) -S rN.) CD co BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 22 April 1999