CIGARETTE'SHOKING, HEALTH, AND DISSONANCE (PROJECT LIBRA): IV. FURTHER ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS REPORT NO. RD.1825 RESTRICTED 0- 25.8.1981 AUTHOR: M.J. Weaver GROUP LEADER: R.P. Ferris ISSUED BY: M. Oldman PROG. REF.: 108.01 DISTRIBUTION: Dr. L.C.F. Blackman Copy No. 1, 2, 3 Dr. R.A. Sanford w 4, 5 R-14. Gibb, Esq. n 6 R.S. Wade, Esq. " 7, 81 ~ R.G. Nicholls, Esq. . 10, 11 Herr E. Rittershaus - 12 Dr. F. Seehofer w 13 Dr. C.J.P. dip. Siqueira ff " 14 Mr. W. Van Putten " 15 H. Tudor, Esq. a 16 Dr. D.G. Felton " 17 Library " 18, 19 COPY NO.: C;L, 0N LJI BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 Group-Research & Development Centre, British-American Tobacco Co. Ltd., SOUTHAMPTON. MJW/C.-*-L/46J 25th August 1981. CIGARETTE SMOKING, HEALTH, AND DISSONANCE (PROJECT LIBRA): IV. FURTHER ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMIENDATIONS (Report No. RD.1825 Restricted> SUMJA'_RY This is the final report in the Project LIBRA series, in which part:~cular attention is paid to (i) patterns of consumer movement amongst the tar bands, (ii) brand preferences in terms of -most often" brand, (iii) elaboration of the consonance/dissonance concept, and (iv) attempts to quit smoking. -In order to provide a view of changes over time in these areas, data from a more recent study are also introduced. It is concluded: that currently'available U.K. brands iu the low -0. ' delivery sector do not provi4e for the needs of a considerable number of dissonant middle tar smokers; that more younger smokers are attempting to quit; that the emergence of the low to middle tar sector has provoked a recent mobility in the market; that highly consonant smokers are more likely to be -women than men and that highly dissonant smokers are only slightly more likely to have moved to low and low to middle tar brands. It is also established that three-quarters of all. smokers have at some C:) (-n 0N (7N BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -2- time tried to quit. Recent quitters are more likely'to say that they were under a great deal or a fair amount of pressure to give up, supporting the view that perceived pressure is an important factor in determining likely changes in the market. It seems that many middle tar smokers want to change to a lower delivery brand but do not wish to overtly state their health concern and susceptibility to pressure. Highly dissonant smokers are likely to find themselves in social contexts which are less supportive of their smoking behaviour. Children in the smoker's family are a particularly potent source of anti-.smoking pressure. Project LIBRA has demonstrated the utility of market segmentation based upon attitudes to health, smoking and quitting. A lthough the relationship between dissonance and switching and quitting is mediated by other attitudinal and social context variables, it is suggested that much useful information may be gained by the incorporation into market research studies of a number of pertinent questions identified and validated by this research. A list of recommended questions is given. cr% C7*-. CP% BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -3- INTRODUCTION This report concludes the series arising from Project LIBRA. Project LIBRA is a comprehensive quantitative study of current 'cigarette smokers, eic-smokers and never smokers, the principal.objective of which was to examine the relationships between cigarette smoking, health attitudes and dissonance. Previous reports in the series have dealt with W difference's between smokers,-eic-smokers and never smokers in attitudes towards health, differences within the smoker category in degree of dissonance and bow these relate to attitudes to health, motivation for smoking., and modes of conflict resolution (1), and (ii) relationships between various psychographic scales and health attitudes, etc. (2). The present, report focusses its attention on a more detailed analysis of typologies of smokers with particular reference to implications for .market movements. In addition to drawing on data from Project LIBRA, the current report refers to relevant data from two earlier studies, Operation AQUARIUS (3) and a smoking study carried out for BAT (UK & E) (4), and to initial analyses of data from a recent study of public responses to other people smoking (Project ARIES), in order to present evidence on changes over time. Four ways for classifying current smokers were considered. These were: CD CD BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -4- (i) patterns of tar band movement over time; (ii) brand preference in terms of most often" brand; (iii) position an the continuum currently used -to classify degree of consonance or dissonance; (iv) attempts to quit smoking. PATTEILNS OF TAR BAIM MOVEMENT This section deals with changes over time in the proportion of smokers at each tar band and the tar band movements of individual smokers. Tar band movements were determined by responses to two questions: "Which brand of cigarettes do you smoke most often?" and "What brand of cigarettes did you previously smoke most often?". Before considering tar band movements it is necessary to comment on th~ definition df "most often~v. For most smokers this term is a meaningful one to describe the brand ihey do indeed smoke "most often!'. However, it is apparent that many smokers, while claiming a "most.often" or "preferred" brand, in factl smoke other brands on an intermittent basis. After experimenting -with an alternative brand, attracted perhaps by a favourable cost, they return to their 'Imost often" or "preferred" brand. The definition employed in this study therefore reflects a more established smoking pattern. BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -5- Overall Tar Band Movements Table I shows changes with time in, the breakdown of the U.K. market by tar band. TABLE 1 BREAKDOWN OF MARKET BY TAR BAND AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES 1978 1979 1980 TO tal 1837* 721** 192** 0. Middle-High/High 10 1 Middle 65 72 68 Low-Middle 8 7 14 Low 16 20 17 *Weighted to take account of sampling biases. **Excluding unclassifiable/menthol brands. The overall trend, as is well known, is for the middle to high and -high caLegories to have diminished to an insignificant proportion of the market and for the low to middle and low sections to have increased steadily in size. Qualitative evidence would suggest that there is a significant felt need among middle tar smokers for a lower tar brand. The continued 0 predominance of the middle tar segment would seem to indicate that for many of them there is currently no fully satisfactory alternative available. The growth of the low to middle tar band will not only, be encouraged by manufacturers, but it seems likely that many smokers might welcome it as an acceptable way. of helping them to trade down. Many middle tar smokers who have experimented with low tar brands admit* that they have C7% ON 1~0 BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 not had the willpower to stay with the brand long enough to themselves to the different level of taste/satisfaction. F smokers a movement down to low to middle tar would be seen appropriate compromise. Me characteristics of smokers in each tar band will b Low Tar Smokers Table 2 shows changes with time in the demographic cha of low tar smokers. TABLE 2 CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW TAR SMOKERS AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES 1978 1979 1980 Total 294* (16%) 140 (20%) 33 (17%) M Sex Hale 38 26 21 Female 62 74 79 Age 16-24 5 6 9 25-44 34 38 42 45 + 61 56 48 Class ABC1 34 41 33 C2 38 29 45 DE 27 30 21 *Weighted to take account of sampling biases. The figures show a continuing female dominance of the low tar market. If anything, this. has become more marked between 1978 and 1980 with the C:) proportion of females increasing from 622 to 79Z. C71% ON C71% BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -7- In 1978 the low tar market was strongly skewed to those aged 45 and over who made up 61% of low tar smokers. The figures for 1980 indicate that although the 16-24 age group is, pro rata, still under-represented in the low tar market, persons in this age group are becoming increasingly likely to smoke low tar products. The figures concerning socioeconomic class reveal no consistent time trends. The results of Project LIBRA indicate that the low tar market is skewed towards the ABC1 group. Low to Middle Tar Smokers From Tablo 3 it can be seen that. thdrelative proportions of male and female low to middle tar smokers have changed radically between 1978 and 1980. In 1978 the figures show a bias towards females relative to the total sample profile. By 1980 low to middle tar smokers are predominantly male. The age profile suggests that low to middle tar products are gaining increasing acceptance among you-nger smokers. There is some indication. that smokers of low to middle tar products are coacentrated in the lower socioeconomic groups. However, this conclusion is based on very small numbers. ON C7\ ~.n C=) Cr1% BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -8- TABLE 3 CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW TO MIDDLE TAR SMOKERS AQUARIUS LIBRA. ARIES 1978 1979 1980 Total 148* (8%) 52 (7%) 26 (14%) M M Sex Hale 35 42 62 Female 65 58 38 Age 16-24 9 15 19 LIB A~RIES L 980 197 9 1980 9 52 (7%T)2jl6 (1~4:/.) 25-44 48 40 35 45 +' 44 44 46 Class ABC1 29 31 15 C2 38 42 42 DE 33 27 1 -42 -1 *Weighted to take account of sampling biases. 0 C> (_n CD 01% f'l'-i BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -9- Middle Tar Smokers Table 4 shows that mid . dle tar smokers are equally likely to be men - or women. TABLE 4 CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE TAR SMOKERS AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES 1978 1979 1980 Total 1176* (65%) 520 ~72%) 131 (68% M M M Sex Male 48 53 51 Female 52 47 49 Age 16-24 20 17 15 25-44 41 40 40 45 + 40 44 46 Class ABC1 27 27 30 C2 39 39 37 DE 35 34 . 33 *Weighted to take account of sampling biases. The *age profile of middle tar smokers is changing with a bias towards the older age group. In 197i 40% of middle tar smokers were aged 45 or over. By 1980 46% were over 45. Middle tar smokers seem to be fairly evenly distributed across socioeconoaic classes, a pattern which has shown little change from 1978 to 1980. C> 01% Ln BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -10- Middle to High/Hi,&,h Tar. Smokers Table 5 reveals that the-very low number of middle to high and high tar smokers precludes any comment except on the virtual disappearance of this segment of the market. TABLE 5 CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE TO HIGHMIGH TAR SMOKERS AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES 1978 1979 1980 Total 180* (10%) 9 (1%) 2 (1%) M (No.) (NO.) Sex Male 73 6 2 Female 27 3 Age 16-24 3 - 25-44 24 1 45 + 74 8 2 Class ABC1 21 - - C2 39 2 1 0 DE 1 40 1 7 1 1 *Weighted to take account of sampling biases. Considering these changing profiles together gives a clearer picture. of movements between tar bands. It is clear that more younger smokers are moving from the middle tar band or choosing lower tar cigarettes when starting to smoke. The low to middle tar band seems to offer the most attractive alternative for these smokers although the low tar band is gaining increasing acceptance. CN (7\ C-n CD CN -It-. BATCo, document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -11- More women are moving from middle tar mainly ~nto the low tar segment. Men who leave the middle tar band f ind the low to middle segment more attractive, perhaps because of the smaller taste and satisfaction dif -ferences and perhaps because many low tar brands have a predominantly feminine image in terms of pack design, etc. Movement from the middle tar band is evenly distributed across socioeconomic class. However, the higher social groups seem to be attracted to low tar brands while those'from the lower social groups appear to find the low to middle tar brands more acceptable. Brand Switching and Tar Band Movement Brand switching behaviour was categorised in terms of the effective directional/norr-directional changes with respect to tar band, which occurred when the smoker switched from previous "most often" brand to the current "most often" brand. The four categories were: (i) norr- directional change - the smoker stayed in the same tar band; (ii) a movement down the tar bands; (iii) a movement up the tar bands; (iy) no change - the smoker had no previous "most often" brand or had never changed brands. Wherje numbers permitted, further subdivisions were made within the first three categories and specific tar band movements were isolated. Table 6,shows changes made by the total sample and also by those who have smoked their current "most often!' brand for less than three years. This group includes both those who have changed brands within the last three years and also those who have entered the market within that time (-r period. BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -12- TABLE 6 BRAND SWITCHING AND TAR BAND MOVEMENT 1978 LIBRA (1979) ARIES(1980) Total Total 3 Years Total 3 Years Total 988 746 387 199 106 W (z) M M Norr-directional change 37 .49 55 51 52 Middle tar consistently smoked 34 46 50 48 49 Movement down tar band 32 24 25 25 30 Down to low tar 10 14 18 13 18 Down to low to middle tar 8 6 5 9 11 Movement up tar band 9 6 5 7 10 No previous brand 16 14 5 11 4 Unclassifiable 6 7 6 4 10 The figures show that the biggest movement down the tar bands occurred up to 1978 when.32%.of smokers had moved down. However, only 18% had moved down to low to low to middle tar cigarettes so a significant proportion of the downward movement reflects changes down to middle tar products. In 1979 and 1980 about 50% of those changing within the last three years had remained within the same tar band, mainly the middle tar band. About 25% had moved down the tar bands, and this downward move~ient is almost entirely due to movement to the low to middle and low tar cate-ories. Considering the figures for those changing brands within the last three years, the relatively low numbers reporting no previous brand in (ON C7111 0- C- BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -13- 1979 and 1.;80 suggests a slight fall in the number of new smokers coming into the m---rket. Table 7 shows the data recalculated, excluding smokers with- no previous brand and :'hose who were smoking either menthol or unclassifialble brands4- TABLE 7 BRAND SWITCHING AND TAR BAND MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING "NO PREVIOUS BRAND" AND "UNCLASSIFIABLE") 1978 LIBRA (1979) ARIES (1980) Total 771 590 330 165 98 M M (7.) M Norr-directional change 47 62 65 61 56 Middle zar consistently smoked 43 58 59 58 53 Movemen-- down tar band 41 30 29 30 33 Down to low tar 13 is 21 16 19 Down to low to middle tar 10 8 6 11 12 Movemen: up tar band 12 8 6 8 11 This shows a sharper picture of market movements and, considering those who liave changed brands in the last three years, the figures suggest that the zsrket may once again be on the move. In 1979 65% of those changing brands had remained in the same tar band. By 1980 this figure had dropped to 56%. This fall is almost totally accounted for by the growth in :he low to middle tar band. In L979 figures show 6: had moved down to lcv to middle tar brands. By 1980 this figure had increased to 12%. At f-1-st sight, the figures for those moving up the tar bands may appear to contradict this trend. In 1979 6% had moved up and in 1980 the (Jr correspon-d-'ag figure was 11%. However, most of the movement ja 1980 is (71 (71 BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -14- 0 accounted for by those' who had moved up to a low- to middle or middle tar brand. Thf-s presumably reflects those smokers who had moved down to lower tar 1-rands, found them unacceptable and moved back up again. The f=llowing sectior~s consider the characteristics of smokers in the different tar band movement groups. The groups which are large enough to allow for comparisons are: W consistent middle tar smokers; (ii) smokers who have moved down to a low tar brand within the last three years. Consisten: Middle Tar Smokers In 1978 34% of packeted cigarette smokers had changed brands but had remained w--thin the middle tar band. In'1979 this figure had risen to 46% and in 1980 to 48%. If wE consider their expressed motives for changing from their "previous aost of ten!' to their current "most of ten?' brand in almost all cases these refer either to cost or to the fact that they wanted to smoke a king size or larger cigarette. Health reasons were not as likely to be mentioned and these smokers did not seem to have any particular dislikes about their previous brands in terms of product attributes but were more likely to say that it was too expensive or too small. From the results of Project LIBRA and Project ARIES it appears that consistent middle tar smokers are more likely to be aged under 44 and to come from :he C2DE occupational groupings. It has been suggested that there is a significant propor=-on of smokers wl:o remain in the middle tar band despite a felt need to modify their smoi~fn& behaviour. They have not felt able to make the trade down ON CN CD CN CY_- BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -is- due to the lack of an acceptable alternative. These smokers want to feel that they are still deriving the same degree of satisfaction and that their changing brands does.not indicate any dramatic change in their pattern of smoking behaviour to other smokers. A lower tar brand with a middle tar 'look' to it, in terms of. pack design, image, etc., and with middle tar taste amplitude might be of interest to these middle tar smokers. Vanguard in the U.K. and, Accord in Canada seem to fall into this category. If such alternatives are not available it is pos~ible that middle tar smokers who are concerned about their smoking and are seeking ways of modifying their smoking behaviour may have no viable alternative but to quit the market. As already pointed out, the 1980 figures for those changing within the last three years suggest that the market may be moving again. More middle tar *smokers may be finding acceptable alternatives with the growth of the low to middle tar band and the advent Of lower tar brands being marketed with more acceptable image, pack, etc. These movements do not appear to be a simple consequence of cut price offers. It is estimated that at least 20% of smokers in the U.K. are "price promiscuous" - that is, they buy whatever king size brand is cheapest or "on offer" at the time. However, it seems that many of these smokers still have a "most often!' or "preferred" brand. Although they may initially be attracted to a brand by price, they will only stay with the brand and make it their "most often" brand if it offers the appropriate level of satisfaction with an acceptable 'image', at the required tar delivery level. C:) (-n 01% C71%. LTI BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -16- Smokers Mov:ing Down to Low Tar Brands Within the Last Three Years in 1979 and 1980 about 20% of smokers reported moving down to a low' tar brand within the previous three years. Smokers in this group claimed that their major motivation for changing to their current "most often!' brand was "for health reasons" and because the new cigarette was "milder". Conversely, their previous brand was rejected primarily "for health reasons'.' and because it was "too strong". Co st was less likely to be mentioned as a reason for changing. These smokers are more likely to be women and tend to smoke slightly fewer cigarettes per day than the total sample. They are more likely to feel that their smoking is motivated primarily by habit. Data from LIBRA and ARIES indicate that smokers who have moved down to a low tar brand are also more likely to have tried to give up smoking and to have succeeded in quitting for longer when they have tried. Paradoxica~iy, they appear to perceive themselves as being unable to give up smoking. Conversely, many middle tar smokers perceive themselves as being in control of their smoking and able to quit. However, the evidence indicates that when they do try, they succeed for shorter lengths of time. Smokers who have moved down the tar bands report that they feel themselves to.be under a great deal of pressure to give up smoking. For these smokers switching to low tar brands offers an alternative means of reducing their concern about their smoking. For them the reassurance gained by s=oking a lower tar cigarette outweighs any loss in satisfaction. 01% 01% C=) BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -17- For some, this reduced taste and satisfaction may complement and reinforce any sense of reassurance given by smoking a. lower tar product. In addition, if these smokers are primarily motivated by habit rather than by positive aspects, such as enjoyment and satisfaction, they may, for example, be less concerned about the taste characteristics of the product, and so experience fewer negative consequences of changing to low tar brands. PROFILES OF SMOKERS OF SPECIFIED BRANbS 0 nly three brands or houses of cigarettes have sufficient smokers to allow them to be isolated in Project LIBRA. Although the numbers are very small for Project ARIES they have been considered in order to see whether there is a consistent pattern of smokers who are nominating the brand as their "most often". The brands/houses considered are Benson and Hedges King Size (80- smokers in LIBRA/19 in ARIES), Silk Cut House (56 in LIBRA/13 in ARIES), and John Player King Size (40 in LIBRA/13 in ARIES). Recent years have seen a dramatic change in the market shares of available brandsO The share of Benson and Hedges King Size has grown significaptly while FAnbassy Tipped has lost its earlier dominant position. John Player King Size and Silk Cut house are of particular interest as spearheads of the move to king size and low tar respectively. Benson and Hedges King Size Smokers Figures from LIBRA and ARIES suggest that smokers of Benson and Hedges tend to be younger. In the LIBRA sample, 67% of Benson and Hedges King Size smokers are aged under 45 against 54% of the total. The corresponding figure for ARIES is 74% 'against 54% of the total sample. This age 01% Un BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -18- distribution represents a growth of the popularity of Benson and Hedges King Size among younger smokers. There is evidence that Benson and Hedges King Size smokers are more C. likely to be in the C2DE socioeconomic groupings and data from~ARIES suggests that the profile of Benson and Hedges smokers is becoming increasingly male (63% of Benson and Hedges smokers are male against 48% of the total sample). Benson and Hedges smokers are more likely to have tried to give up smoking within the last two years (64% v 58% total sample) and to claim that they would fairly or very seriously like to give up smoking (96% v 5~%). They are also more likely to perceive themselves as under pressure to quit smoking (37% v 25%). Motivations of Benson and Hedges smokers appear to be varied. In the LIBRA study 43% claimed that they smoked because it was a habit, although 38% said that their only reason for smoking Vas to relax. Benson and Hedges seems to have a regular core of support: on average Benson and 2-edges smokers have been with the brand for 4 years. Their main reasons for changing to Benson and Hedges were health (37%) and be-cause it was a king size cigarette (27%). Silk Cut House Smokers Smokers of Silk Cut brands are consistently more likely to be female (80% v 53A'* in the total sample in LIBRA and 85% v 52% in ARIES) reflecting the greater acceptability of low tar products among female smokers. The Project LIBRA data shows Silk Cut smokers to be over represented among social classes ABC1 (41% v 30% of the'total sample), although in ARIES this bias has largely disappeared. CN ~_n c:::> --_J NI) BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 _19- It is clear that the major reasons for changing to Silk Cut brands were concern for heal-th (76%- v 38% total sample) and a -wish to smoke a milder cigarette (27% v 19%). Only 14% of Silk Cut smokers against 79% of the total sample mentioned cost as a reason for changing. Silk Cut smokers were less likely to claim that they smoked for relaxation. Forty-three percent claimed that they smoked from habit while only 30% mentioned relaxation or enjoyment as a reason for smoking as against 35% of the total sample who mentioned this as a reason. From Project LIBPLA it is. apparent that Silk Cut smokers feel themselves to be under a great deal of pressu re to quit or modify their smoking behaviour (322 of Silk Cut smokers v 25% of the total sample). Results from Project LIBRA suggested that Silk- Cut smokers were more likely to be dissonant but data from ARIES show an increasing likelihood for them to be consonant. This may be a reflection of consonant smokers switching to Silk Cut brands. Alternatively, switching to a low tar brand may reduce the feelings of dissonance felt by previously highly dissonant smokers and so bring them into the consonant category. John Player King Size Smokers Smokers of John Player King Size are more likely to be men (65% are male v 47% of the total sample in LIBRA and 62% v 48% in ARUS). They are also more likely to be young (20% aged 16-24 In LIBRA v 14% of the total sample). This age bias appears to be increasing from ARIES data (31% v 14%). Whilst earlier John Player King Size showed a C2DE bias it now appears to have greater acceptance among those irt the ABCI occupational grouping. CYI*. (J"i CD BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -20- A.-major motivation for smokers changing to John Player King Size was because they wanted a king size cigarette (32%. v 15% of the total sample) This is an obvious reason in that John Player King Size came onto the market competitively priced in a king size length and was therefore cheaper and larger than most brands available at the time. Twent7-one percent said that they tried John Player King Size and then preferred them (v 13% of total sample). Forty-three percent of John Player King Size smokers claimed that they smoked for relaxation and for enjoyment against 35% of the total sample. Thirty-five percent claimed they smoked because it was a habit. John Player king Size smokers seem-to feel themselves to be under pressure to give up smoking (31% v 25% of total sample), and are-=ore likely to have tried to give up within the last two years (66% v 58%). However, despite the pressure and their attem pts to give up, overall they do not appear to be currently very serious about wanting to give up: 58% of John Player smokers claimed that they are not very or not at all serious about wanting to give up against 48% of the total sample. Not surprisingly, John Player smokers were found to be more likely to be consonant in both LIBRA and ARIES studies. CONSONANCE/DISSOUMME As described in an earlier report on Project LIBRA (1), cigarette smokers were classified according to their degree of cognitive consonance dissonance. The basis for classification was whether the smoker has eve; tried to give up smoking and how seriously he would like to give up. The four categories are: CN BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -21- Highly Consonant - those who have not tried nor wish to quit. Consonant - those who have tried but do not now wish to Dissonant - those who wish to quit b= have not tried. Highly Dissonant - those who.wish to quit and have attempted t Table 8 shows the proportion of smokers in each of these categ for Projects LIBRA and ARIES. The relative percemtages remain fair consistent. TABLE 8 CLASSIFICATION BY CONSONANCE/DISSONANCE LIBRA AR ME S 1979 1980 (Z) (Z) Highly consonant 21 21 Consonant 29 3Z Dissonant 7 6 Highly dissonant 43 4Z The discussion following concentrates on those smokers classified as highly consonant or as highly dissonant as these two groups clearly represent the two extremes of attitudes on this dLmension as. currently def ined. cy*% (il Ln BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -22- Highly Consonant Smokers Table 9 shows the characteristics of highly consonant smokers. TABLE 9 CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY CONSONANT SMOKERS . (PERCENTAGES FOR TOTAL SAkWLE IN BRACKETS) LIBRA ARIES 1979 1980 M (Z) Sex Male 45 (48) 41 (48) Female 55 (52) 59 (52) Age 16-24 16 (14) 30 (14) 25-44 25 (40) 35 (40) 45 + 60 (46) 49 (46) 1 Class AtCl 31 (30) 32 (29) C2 36 (37) 34 (39) DE - 32 (33) 34 (32) Pressure to quit Great deal/Fair amount 9 (25) 17 (36) Not very much/None at all 91 (75) 83 (64) Pressure to modify Great deal/Fair amount 7 (23)20 (35) Not very much/None at all 1 90 (76) 80 (65) The results from LIBRA and ARIES show that highly consonant smokers are more likely to be women than men and that this bias has increased from LIBRA to ARIES. The age bias towards those aged over 45 revealed by LIBRA has disappeared in ARIES, with a growth in the number of highly consonant smokers aged under 25. CD Highly consonant smokers appear to show greater brand loyalty than U1 01% other groups. On average they have smoked their current most often brand (7N Q (-n ---4 C7.% BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -23- for almost six years in LIBRA and nine years in. ARIES compared with means of five and five and a half years for the total samples. The reasons given for changing to their "most often" brand were that their new brand was cheaper and that, when they tried them, they preferred them. As, on average, they have been with their current brand for six years, the changes by highly consonant smokers do not coincide with the dramatic price changes in the market brought about by the introduction of king size brands and they argued that they changed from their previous brand simply because they were ready for a change. With respect to smoking motivation, highly consonant smokers appear to be motivated note by positive effect. They claim to smoke "to rela)e' and "for comfort" and are les,s likely to regard smoking simply as a =atter of habit. They appear to perceive themselves as having greater control over their smoking than other groups. Thirty-eight perceAt siy that they could give up smoking if they wanted to do so compared with 34% in respect of the total sample. Comparison of results from LIBRA and ARIES reveals an increase with time in the level of pressure to give up or to modif~ smoking behaviour perceive4 by smokers in general. Twenty-five percent of smokers- in LIBRA felt that they were under a great deal or a fair amount of pressure to quit smoking. In ARIES the . figure had risen to*36%. The figures for those who feel under pressure to modify their smoking behaviour show a similar rise from 23% to 35%. The number of highly consonant smokers who feel themselves under pressure to quit or modify their behaviour has also increased from LIBRA C=:> to ARIES. In LIBRA 9% Claim to be under pressure to quit smoking and 7% ON 01% ~_rl CD BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -24- feel under pressure to modify their smoking~ In ARIES the figures are 17% and 20% respectively. However, highly co usonant smokers are clearly less likely to feel themselves under pressure compared with the total sample. That fewer highly consonant smokers experience pressure may, in part, be a consequence of the context in which they live. Data fron LIBRA shows that highly consonant smokers are less likely to be in a household where they are the only smoker (45% of highly consonant =okers against 50% of the total sample). Even more significant is the presence of children in the household. Fifty-eight percent of highly consonant smokers are in households with no children compared with 47% in the total sample. It would seem that children are a particularly potent source of pressure, whether directly or indirectly. Highly consonant smokers are also likely to be In a more supportive environment outside of the family. Fifty-six percent claim that most of their friends smoke compared with 48% of the total sample and 32% say "that most of their workmates smoke, against 27%. Table 10 shows the tar bands of highly consonant smokers' "mos: often" brands. It suggests that they are more likely to remain with middle tar brands than the s4mple overall. However, the figures in ARIES S uggest that when they do trade down they are more likely to move to a low to middle tar brand than a low tar one. The fact that a larger proportion of highly consonant smokers have not changed to lower tar brands suggests that their consonance is not mainly due,to them having traded down and thus reduced any conflict concerning smoking, although L-M for some this has probably played a part. ON CN co BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -25- TABLE 10 TAR BANDS OF "MOST OFTEN" BRANDS FOR HIGHLY CONSONANT SMOKERS LIBRA ARIES 1,970 1980 M Tar band of Middle 73 (70) 71 (66) Irmost often" brand Low to Middle 5 (7) 15 (13) LOW 16 (19)12 (17) In ge neral, highly con sonant smokers seem relatively insulated from market changes. More than other groups they seem less likely to quit smoking due to outside pressures or to change" their habits as a result of market influences. 7here are, however, aspects ~Uch suggest that this segmeat of the market is not as stable as it may seem. Firstly, although highly consonant smokers are less lik~ly to agree that cigarette smoking is harmful to health (39% v 62% of the total sample), there is still- a substantial number who do agree. Howeveri only 8% of highly consonant smokers are very or quite concerned about the possible effects their cigarette smoking may have on their own health. "In a previous report (2) smokers who believed that smoking is harmful yet are not concerned about its effects on their own health were described as 'incongruent'.. Meir incongruent stance is maintained by a variety of strategies for ratilonalising the smoking and health issue. If the effectiveness of these strategies is reduced or the highly consonant smoker is placed under greater pressure, he may experience greater conflict between his beliefs and action and move into the dissonant Un categories. If this happens, it may be significant that these smokers 01% (-n BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -26- believe themselves to be more in control of their smoking and capable of 'giving up if they wish to. If this is so, they may be more successful in rejecting cigarettes than smokers in other groups, particularly if there are no acceptable alternatives for them tomove to. Highly Dissonant Smokers The figures in Table 11 show that the demographic characteristics of highly dissonant smokers have remained-stable from Project LIBRA to Project ARIES. Highly dissonant smokers are slightly more likely to be female than male. They do not appear to be more likely to belong to any particular occupational grouping but it does seem that they are more likely to be younger (16-44). TABLE 1i CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY DISSONA14T SMOKERS (PERCENTAGES FOR TOTAL SAMPLE IN BRACKETS) LIBRA AR~Igs 1979 1980 M (Z) Sex Male 45 (48) 45 (48) Female 55 (5Z) 55 (5Z) Age 16-Z4 15 (14) 14 (14) 25-44 46 (40) 46 (40) 45 + 39 (46) 40 (46) Class ABC1 31 (30) 31 (29) C2 38 (37) 39 (39) DE 31 (33.) 30 (32) Pressure to quit Great deal/Fair amount 40 (25) 55 (36) Not very much/None at all 60 (75) 45 (64) Pressure to modify Great deal/Fair amount 34 (23) 49 (35) U1 Not very much/None at alll 66 (76) 1 51 (65) Qn CZ-) co BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -27- Compared with the total sample, highly diss9nant smokers show lower brand loyalty. They are more likely to be recent brand switchers, as the averages for the length of time they have smoked their current' "most often~' brand are 3.9 years in LIBRA and 4.8 years in ARIES (compared with 5.2 and 5.6 years for the total samples). With respect to smoking motivation, highly dissonant smokers are more likely to be motivated by negative affect. They smoke when bored, tense, or anxious. More than other groups they acknowledge a need for nicotine and see smoking as a habit. Perhaps a a a consequence, highly dissonant smokers perceive themselves as having less control over their smoking than other groups. Only 292 agree that they could give up smoking today if they really wanted to. Their perceptions are perhaps more accurate than some other groups as, by definition, highly dissonant smokers have attempted to quit but have failed. Although, on average, the last time highly dissonant smokers tried to give up was as long ago as two years there is evidence that the number who have tried to give up within the last two years is increasing (66% ia LIBRA v 71% in ARIES). On both surveys about 40% had made two or more serious attempts to quit within the last two years. Highly dissonant smokers are more likely to be under - or perceive themselves to be under - pressure to quit smoking, or to modify their smoking behaviour than other groups. Like other groups, the number of highly dissonant smokers who claim they are under a great deal or a fair amount of pressure has increased from LIBRA to ARIES. Highly dissonant smokers are likely to find themselves in social contexts which are less supportive of their smoking behaviour. Although CN co BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -28- they are not more likely to be the only smoker in the household (49% v 50% of total sample), they are more likely to be in households including children. Thirty-nine percent of highly dissonant smokers live in households with no children against 47% of the total sample. This supports the suggestion made earlier that children are a particularly potent source of anti-smoking pressure. Outside of the family, highly dissonant smokers are likely to find themselves in social contexts where smoking is less prevalent. Only 41% of highly dissonant smokers claim most 'of their friends smoke compared with 48% of the total sample. Twenty-three percent claim that most of their workmates. smoke against 27% of the total sample. Not surprisingly, highly dissonant smokers show great concern over the smoking and health issue. As many as 82% agree with the statement that cigarette smoking is harmful to health (v 62% of the total sample). Fifty-three percent of highly dissonant smokers go beyond a general belief in the possible harmful effects of smoking and claim that they are very. or quite concerned about the effects their cigarette smoking has on their own health. Thus there are fewer incongruent smokers in the highly dissonant category than in the highly consonant category. Highly dissonant smokers adopt different strategies in attempting to reconcile the inconsistencies between their beliefs and attitudes and their actions. They do not ratiofialise or deny the possible harmful consequences of smoking but are more likely to accept that smoking is harmful and yet they cannot stop it. Nevertheless, 65% of highly dissonant smokers express the intention of giving up smoking some day although, as already stated, they perceive themselves as having less control over their smokino C711 than other groups. L-n CZ) co r...) BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -29-. Table 12 shows the tar bands of highly dissonant smokers' "most often" brands. In LIBRA it appeared that highly dissonant smokers were more likely to be moving from middle tar brands (66% of highly dissonant smokers were smoking middle tar brands v 70% of the total sample). However, despite the overall decrease in middle tar smokers from LIBRA to ARIES, the percentage of highly dissonant middle tar smokers has remained fairly constant. Comparing the LIBRA and ARIES figures for low to middle tar and low tar highly dissonant smokers, it seems that while proportionally more are smoking low tar brands, the low to middle tar group is growing at the cost of the low tar group. TABLE 12 TAR BANDS OF "MOST OFTEN" BRANDS FOR HIGHLY DISSONANT SMOKERS LIBRA ARIES 1979 1980 (Z) - (%) Tar band of Middle 66 (70) 65 (66) "most often" brand Low to Middle 8 (7) 11 (13) Low 22 (19)19 (17) It might have been expected that there would have been a greater movement to lower tar brands by highly dissonant smokers as part of a strategy for reducing dissonance. That a large number of highly dissonant smokers have remained with middle tar brands suggests that, currently, there are no acceptable low tar brands available for them to move down to. This may be because highly dissonant smokers are more likely to perceive themselves-as having"a need for nicotine, a need which would not be fulfilled by lower delivery brands. Alternatively, or additionally, c-n C7% 01% (-n 00 (-.14 BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -30- current lower tar brands may not offer a total 'Package' in terms Of image, pack etc. which is perceived as a reasonable alternative. However, it appears that moving to lower tar brands is not an effective strategy for reducing dissonance for many smokers. Thirty percent of highly dissonant smokers are smoking low to middle or low tar brands. Highly dissonant smokers, as they.have been described, wish to give up smoking, are under pressure to do so, and many of theta have seriously attempted to do so within the last two years. However, other evidence suggests that those who have made two or more serious attempts to quit smoking within the last two years and have failed may not be as likely to- quit the market as it would first appears Thus, despite their concern and the pressure they are under, it could be argued that a large proportion of these smokers will form a stable core of the manufactured cigarette market for the next few years. However, this concern and pressure suggests that this is a group who would be highly motivated to modify their smoking behaviour in terms of switching to brands which they perceived as 'safer, yet meet their requirements, whatever they might be. Further Analysis of Consonance/Dissonance On the basis of the information presented in the preceeding sections, it is apparent that attitudes towards health and the pressure felt by smokers are independent elements differentiating between consonant and dissonant smokers. Therefore further analyses were carried out relating these factors. Of highly consonant smokers, 46% are either uncommitted or dismissive about cigarettes being harmful "to health, are unconcerned about the CN co BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 --31- effects their cigarette smoking may be having ori their own health and claim to be under very little or no pressure to aodify their smoking behaviour or to quit. This 46% Would seem to represent a stable core of the market as they currently have no apparent. motivation to change the pattern of their smoking behaviour. Seventeen percent of highly consonant smokers believe that cigarettes are harmful to health, are at least a little concerned about the effect it Ifas on their own health but, as yet, are not under any pressure, or perceived pressure, to modify'or quit smoking. If, for any reason, thes e smokers begin to experience or acknowledge any pressure being brought to bear on them to quit smoking or change their smoking behaviour, they are likely to become increasingly motivated to question their smoking behaviour and imay seek acceptable alternatives to their current brand and, if they are unsuccessful in finding one, may be sufficiently motivated to succeed in quitting. It has been pointed out that highly consonant smokers perceive themselves to be in control of their smoking and able to determine whether they smoke or not. In the event, it is likely that many of those attempting to quit might then find difficulties in breaking the habit that they had not previously acknowledged and would fail. There would thus be an increase in the number of smokers defined as highly dissonant unless there are available acceptable alternative brands which enable them to dissipate their dissonance. By contrast, 27% of highly dissonant smokers agree that cigarette smoking is harmful to health, are very or quite concerned about the effect smoking might have on their own health and claim to be under at least a fair amount of presstire to either quit or modify their smoking. None of Ul C71% c7N BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 . -32- them have yet succeeded and for many of them quitting may not provide a realistic strategy for resolving their dilemma and they may have to seek other alternatives. A further 32% of highly dissonant smokers agree that smoking is harmful to health, are concerned about its. effects on their own health but are not yet under any pressure to change their smoking patterns or quit. If pressure builds up generally and specifically to levels such that these smokers acknowledge this pressure, then this group is likely to become even more dissonant and its members more motivated to modify their behaviour or quit smoking. How successful these smokers might, be in quitting is not clear. As already pointed out, as many as a third'of these smokers have made two or more attempts to quit smoking in the last two years and would therefore seem unlikely to be successful if previous research into successful quitting is considered. It is clear that, given the probable future increase in the social pressures on the acceptability of smoking, there i:s likely to be a significant rise in the number of smokers who are motivated to quit smoking or modify their behaviour. Some of the potential loss may be stemmed by the development of more acceptable lower tar brands and those who try to quit and fail are also likely to be seeking alterna-tives. Although the figures'for tar-band movement trends suggest that some smokers are willing to follow the manufacturers' lead on developing the low to middle and low tar segments, the. large number of smokers who have remained with middle tar brands suggests that, for many, the lower tar brands currently available do not offer acceptable alternatives. It seems that many middle tar smokers want to change to a lower tar brand but do not wish to overtly state theIr health concern and susceptibi:it CY% Lrl 00 CYN , BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -33- to pressure. Such smokers need an acceptable trationgle" for changing which cut price offers often provide. However., for them to stay with a brand on a long term basis they must be offered products which compete directly with familiar middle tar brands in terms of pack, image, product design, etc. ATTEI.IPTED AND SUCCESSFUL QUITTERS In this section smokers who have attempted to give up smoking are examined and, where possible, compared with e:c-smokers who have successfully given up smoking. Attempted Quitters Highly dissonant smokers and consonant. smokers, by definition, have at some time tried to quit smoking. This represents 72% of all smokers in Project LIBP-k and 84% in Project ARIES. However, for many of these, the last attempt was some time ago. Therefore, it was decided to concentrate on those smokers who have tried to give up within the past year since they presumably represent the gr oup who are most 'at risk' of quitting the market. This represents 27% of smokers in Project LIBRA, 12% had tried to quit in the last three moaths and 15% had tried over three months ago but within the last year. In Project ARIES 292 had tried to give up in the last year, 6% in the last three months and 23% from three months up to one year ago. The results from both projects suggest th~t those smokers who have attempted to~quit withiu the last two years are 11.kely to be younger. In LIBRA, 66% were aged 16-44 against 54'0 of the total sample and in ARIES 62% were aged 16-44 against 54% of the total sampLe. GIN 03 -~J BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -34- Not surprisingly, smokers who have tried to. quit recently are more likely to be in'the highly dissonant category than the consonant category. Therefore, they are more likely to claim that they would seriously like to give up smoking. They are likely to perceive themselves to be under a great deal or a fair amount of pressure to give up smoking (34% v 25% of the total sample). Those who had attempted to give up most recently, within the last three months, were even more likely to feel under pressure (40% v 25% of the total sample). Recent attempted quitters are likely to have been smoking their current brand for less time. The average len gth of-time is 4.1 years against an average of 5.2 years for the total sample. This suggests that as well as attempting to quit, these smokers are more likely to have changed brands in an attempt to reduce dissonance. Indeed, when one considers reasons for changing from previous "most often" brands, these smokers are more likely to have changed for health reasons and because they thought their previous brand was too strong and contained too much tar. Many of these smokers said they smoked because it was a habit (41%) and comfort was mentioned by 32%. It may be that smokers who are motivated by these factors find difficulty in quitting. Successful Quitters Looking at the overall profile of ex-manufactured cigarette smokers, it is male dominated (65% men v 35% women) and biased towards the older age groups and higher social class groups. If we consider more recent trends by looking at those who have succeeded in quitting within the last two years, it appears that more women are giving up than was previously the case. Within the last two years the proportion of women giving up CD co BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -35- was higher than the total sample profile (41% v 35% in LIBRA and.51% v 35% in ARIES). Quitters within the last two years were also more likely to be younger. In LIBRA 53% were aged 16-44 against 37% of.the total sample. In ARIES, the corresponding figures were 54% against 38%. Recent quitters also even more likely to be in the ABC1 socioeconomic groupings (in LIBRA 47% v 41% of total sample, in ARIES 46% v 41% of total sample). Retrospectively, ex-smokers; who have quit within the last year were. more likely to say that they were under a great deal or a fair amount of press ure to give up (33% in LIBRA v 27% of the total sample and 47t in ARIES v 33% of the total sample). Recent. ev-smokers were likely to have been smoking their "most often" brand prior to quitting for slightly longer than the total sample of smokers and mariedly longer than unsuccessful quitters. The average time for ex-smokers was 5.8 years 4gainst 5.2 years for smokers overall and 4.1 years for unsuccessful quitters'. This suggests that.quitting has been their major strategy for reducing dissonance concerning smoking and they were less likely to have experimented with other brands as an alternate strategy. SUHMARY OF FINDINGS Patterns of Tar Band Movement 1. Analysis over time of the breakdown of the market by tar band shows a clear swing away from middle to high and high tar brands towards the low and low to middle end of the market. Clearly, this is a reflection of changing marketing strategy. However, the swing C7N 0N CC) ~10 BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -36- towards lower tar brands does reflect a serions need among middle tar smokers for lower far brands with an overall proposition which will satisfy them on a long term basis. The evidence suggests that current brands do not fulfill the total latent: demand among middle tar smokers. 2. Female smokers continue to dominate the low tar market. There is still a bias towards those over 45 years of age but the most recent figures show that more younger smokers are moving to low tar. Taken in conjunction with subsequent evidence that younger smokers are more likely to be trying to quit, and are becoming more successful, it is not surprising that those who are unsuccessful have moved.to low tar brands, perhaps as a compromise. 3. The profile of low,to middle tar smokers has changed towards men since 1978. There are also a higher proportion.of low to middle tar smokers in the age range 16-24, although the profile is spread across all ages. There is a slight indication that these smokers are more concentrated among the C2DE social class groups. 4. Middle tar smokers are equally likely to be men or women although there Is evidence that more men are staying with middle tar brands. The age profile for middle tar smokers is tending to become older. 5. Analysis of brand switching patterns suggests that the biggest movement down tar bands I occurred up to 1978. Since then about half of those smokers who have changed brands have remained in the same tar band, predominantly the middle tar band.- Consideration of those who have changed within the last three years, however, suggests that the market is again on the move, due primarily to the growth of the low to middle tar segment. U1 CD C--) BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -37- 6. Examination of consistent,middle tar smokers shows them to be younger and in the lower occ . upational.groupiags. Their.major motivations for changing brands are associated with cost or size rather"than concern for health. It was suggested that many middle tar smokers feel a need to trade down but have not found an acceptable. alternative. 7. Smokers who have moved down to low tar brands within the last three years are more likely to be motivated by health concern. Thl~y claim to be under pressure to give up smoking and are more likely to have tried to quit and to have succeeded in quitting for longer periods. Smokers Of S2ecified Brands 8. Three brands/houses were considered: Benson and Hedges King Size, Silk Cut House, and John Player King Size. Benson and Hedges smokers tend to be younger, male, and in the lower socioeconomic groupings. They are likely to have tried to give up and to be under pressure to do so. Major reasons for changing to Benson and Hedges were health and size. 9. Silk Cut house smokers are more likely to be female. They are likely to be under pressure to quit and to have changed to Silk Cut because they were milder. While they tended to be dissonant, more recent evidence suggests an increase in the number of consonaht Silk Cut smokers. 10. Smokers of John Player King Size are more likely to be male and in the, younger age groups and the brand is gaining increasing acceptance within the iOCI occupational grouping. They feel under pressure to quit and are. more likely to have attempted to do so, although many 01 claim that they are not very serious in their desire to give up 0% 0~% t-TI C=) %10 BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -38- suoking. The major reason for moving to John Player King Size was that it was a king size cigarette at a low price. Consonance and Dissonance 11. Highly consonant smokers are more likely to be women than men. They appear to display more brand loyalty than other groups and when they changed they were primarily motivated by cost. They are less likely to be under pressure to quit or modify their smoking than other groups and are more likely to live in households with no children and to mix with other smokers in their social and work environments. They appear to be relatively detached from market changes over recent years and are more likely to have remained within the middle tar segment. .12. Highly dissonant smokers are slightly more likely to be women arid to be younger. They are more likely -to be recent brand switchers and 40Z have made two or more serious attempts to quit within the last two years. Highly dissonant smokers are more likely to be under pressure to quit or modify their smoking than other groups and are more likely to live in households with children. Highly dissonant smokers are slightly more likely.to have moved to low and low. to middle tar brands. 13. Further analysis of the consonanc e/dissonance dimension was carried out examining the role of health concern and pressure. These factors are likely to be important in determining the future brand switching or quitting behaviour of consonant and dissonant smokers. AttemDted and Successful Quitters 14. Three-quarters of smokers have at some time tried to quit. About a C7*% quarter of smokers have tried to quit within the past year. Recent C71% c::) 110 BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -39- attempted quitters are likely to be younger*and to be under pressure to quit. They are likely to have experimented. with other brands and to smoke because it is a habit and for comfort. 15. The overall profile of e2v-smokers is male dominated although more women have quit within the-past two years. More recent quitters also tend to be younger and to come from the higher socioeconomic groupings. Theyare more likely to say that they were under a great deal or.a fair amount of pressure to give up. 'This supports the argument that pressure or perceived pressure is an important factor in determining likely changes in the market. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS The results discussed in this report suggests fruitful bases for segmenting manufactured cigarette smokers in a way which relates to their likely brand switching behaviour and potential loss from the market due to quitting. As well as demographic characteristics identifying those groups who might be particularly susceptible to modifying their smoking behaviour in terms of switching brands or giving up smoking, it is clear that examination of attitudinal and social context variables can play an important part in. identifying those smokers who are either likely to quit the mark~t or who are motivated to modify their smoking behaviour if provided with acceptable alternative brands and also those who are likely to fall into this category should certain circumstances change in the future. One important factor is degree of cogniti.ve consonanceldissonance in terms of the mismatch between attitudes to'spoking defined by desire to quit and previous attempts to 4uit and. continued smoking behaviour. (Lr C__ BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999 -40- However, the relationship between degree of consonance or dissonance and the likelihood of subsequent. action in terms of switching brands or quitting is mediated by other attitudinal and social context variables. Consonant and diss.onant smokers can be further d!~fined in terms of their attitudes to smoking and health. The general belief that cigarette smoking is harmful to health and, perhaps more important, a personal concern for the effect that cigarette smoking might have on one's own health, identify those who either are or may become motivated to change their behaviour by either switching brands or, if they cannot find an alternative brand which is acceptable on a long term basis, trying to quit, a strategy which may or may not be successful. A further factor which is significant is the degree of pressure a smoker is under or perceives himself to be under, to quit smoking or modify his smoking behaviour. It seems that the presence of such pressure plays an important role in motivating smokers to actually do something about their smoking by either modifying it or quitting. On the basis of the results discussed in this report it is suggested that much useful information could be gained by considering these factors in future market research studies. It is recommended, therefore, that such studies should incorporate a set of questions derived from Projects LIBRA and ARIES designed to examine these issues. BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -41- The recommended set of key questions contains twelve items, some of which will already be included in most studies. The questions are as f ollows: Wich (ONE) brand of cigarettes do you smoke most often? (TO BE CLASSIFIED BY TAR BAND)* 2. How long has # been your most often brand. LESS THAN ONE MONTH OVER ONE MONTH UP TO THREE MONTHS OVER THREE MONTHS UP TO SIX MONTHS OVER SIX MONTHS UP TO ONE YEAR OVER ONE YEAR UP TO TWO YEARS OVER TWO YEARS UP TO THREE YEARS OVER THREE YEARS UP TO FOUR YEARS OVER FOUR YEARS UP TO FIVE YEARS OVER*FIVE YEARS UP TO SIX YEARS OVER SIX YEARS UP TO SEVEN YEARS OVER-SEVEN YEARS UP TO EIGHT YEARS OVER EIGHT YEARS UP TO NINE YEARS OVER NINE YEARS UP TO TEN YEARS OVER TEN YEARS (WRITE IN) 3. What brand of cigarette did you previously smoke most often before 0 & . * . . 0 0 0 0 . . . . . . . . . . . ? (TO BE CLASSIFIED BY TAR BAND)* As well as providing information on the overall distribution of the market between tar bands, these questions enable examination of the specific -directions of movement between tar band by particular groups of smokers. *In some markets cigarettes will be classified according to delivery. 110 (.n BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -42- 4. H4Lve you ever tried to'give up smoking maaufactured cigarettes altogether? YES (Go on to question 5) NO (Go on to question 10)* 5. How hard have you tried to give up smoking manufactured cigarettes altogether? NOT AT ALL HARD NOT VERY HARD QUITE HLRD, VERY HARD 6. When was the last time you tried to give up smoking manufactured cigarettes altogether? LESS THAN ONE MONTH AGO OVER ONE MONTH UP TO THREE MONTHS AGO OVER T11REE MONTHS UP TO SIX MONTHS AGO OVER SIX MONTHS UP TO NINE MONTHS AGO OVER NINE MONTHS UP TO TWELVE MONTHS AGO OVER TWELVE MONTHS UP TO EIGHTEEN MONTHS AGO OVER EIGHTEEN MONTHS UP TO TWO YEARS AGO OVER TWO YEARS UP TO FIVE YEARS AGO OVER FIVE YEARS AGO CAN' T REMERBER C) Ln 01% C> run -C> %,0 CY*I% BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -43- 7. On. the last occasion you gave up smoking cigarettes how long did you give up for? ONE DAY TWO TO SIX DAYS ONE WEEK OVER ONE WEEX UP TO TWO WEEKS OVER TWO WEEKS Up To THREE WEEKS OVER THREE WEEKS UP TO FOUR WEEKS ONE MONTH OVER'ONE MONTH UP TO THREE MONTHS OVER THREE MONTHS UP TO SIX MONTHS OVER SIX MONTHS UP TO TWELVE MOTHS ONE YEAR LONGER THAN ONE YEAR 8. How seriously would you like to give up smokLng manufacturea cigarettes altogether? VERY SERIOUSLY FAIRLY SERIOUSLY NOT VERY SERIOUSLY NOT AT ALL SERIOUSLY On the basis of their responses to questions 4 and 8 smokers can be categorised according to the degree of consonance/dissonance expressed as follows: Highly Consonant - Have not tried to give up stioking and would not very or not at all seriously like to. Consonant - Have tried to give up smoking but now would not very or n(~t at all seriously like to. Dissonant - Would very or fairly seriously like to give up smoking but have not tried to do so. Highly Dissonant - Would very or fairly seriously like to cr% give up smoking and have tried to do so. %10 --4 BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -44- QU est~-ons 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 are designed to . provide more sensitive informatio= on the smoker's past and present COMM-itment to quitting smoking anz: his degree of success in doing so. For many smokers their last attem=t to quit may 1~ave been some time ago, more reliable information on current trends can be derived by considering recent attempted qui:tters in particular. Length of last quitting attempt may translate into the probability of successfully quitting in the future. Number of attempts to quit in the last two years also related to the probability of successfully quitting a: a later date. Evidence suggests that those who have made many attem;cs at quitting are less likely to be actually successful. 9. How far do you personally agree or disagree wit h the statement "Cigarette smoking is harmful to health"? AGREE STRONGLY AGREE SEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE DISAGREE DISAGREE STRONGLY 10. How coacerned are you about the possible effects YOUR cigarette smokimg has on YOUR OWN HEALTH? TERY CONCERNED QUITE CONCERNED L LITTLE CONCERNED NOT VERY CONCERNED SOT AT ALL CONCERNED These two questions identify the general degree of concern with respect to the relationship between cigarette smoking and health and, perhaps mr-re importantly, the degree to which the smoker is concerned C1% CP% Ln N-0 co BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -45- about how s=oking might affect his own health. These factors differentiate those smokers who, if at present they are not highly motivated to quit 0 smoking or change their behaviour, may become so with changes in circumstances such as an increase in pressure. 11. How much pressure, if any, do you feel under to give up smoking altogether? A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT N07 VERY MUCH NONEE AT ALL 12. How much pressure, if any, do you feel under to modify you smoking behaviour? A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT N-3T VERY MUCH NONE AT ALL These tvo questions consider the degree of pressure to quit or modify that the sm;Dker is under or perceives himself to be under. Absence or 9 presence of such pressure is likely to be a significant factor determinino a how attitudes to smoking are translated into motivations to quit or modify smoking by changing brands and subsequentl~ into action. The imformation gained from these questions should enable segmentation of the market in terms of the proportion of smokers who are 'at risk' of quitting the market or who would be moftvated to switch brands should acceptable alternatives be made available. It would also enable identification of those smokers who would become 'at risk' with changes in circumstances, such as increased social pressure on the social ON (-M C:> %10 N-0 BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 -46- unacceptability of smoking. Such information might be collected regularly over time and in different market contexts. To the extent that consistent historical trends can be identified it may be possible to predict future needs and market potential in currently less developed markets. REFERENCES 1. BAT Report No. RD.1697-C, 18.10.79. 2. BAT Re?ort No. RD.1743-C, 20.5.80. 3. OPERATION AQUARIUS. NOP Market Research Limited, July 1978. 4. Smoker Behaviour and Image Perception of Key Brands and Houses. England Grosse Associates, 1978. 0 CD Lri 01% 01% ‡.n CD BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 CN BATCo document for Legal Services : Health Canada 22 October 1999 --.M. " . -: A, Ilk 2, A,~ MINIZ W11 ilk- 4~i-,r-v . . .- - , , T - C.- .-4, 4 ~ 1~ , -- WT t vit C71% RIM BATCo document for Legal Services: Health Canada 22 October 1999