"PROBLEM"
FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 20 YEARS,
THE POSITIVE NET EFFECT OF POPULATION
GROWTH, USAGE GROWTH, INDUSTRY GROWTH,
SHARE GROWTH, PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS
AND, THEREFORE, PROFIT GROWTH HAS
CAMOUFLAGED THE REALITY THAT CANADIAN
CIGARETTE SMOKERS ARE INCREASINGLY LESS
ENCHANTED WITH BEING SMOKERS AND THE
I TNTDERLjX]*TRENDS 'CLEARLY SUGGEST THAT,
DESPITE SHORT-TERM UPTURNS (EG. VIA
"LIGHTS"), FEWER AND FEWER CANADIANS
WILL SMOKE IN'THE FUTURE.
cr%
00
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BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999

CURRENT SITUATION
1 A PROJECTION OF CURRENT TRENDS
AND A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
POLICIES BY 1. T. L. THE INDUSTRY
AND VARIOUS ANTI-SMOKING
FORCES MAY, IN THE SHORT-TERM,
SEVERELY JEOPARDIZE OUR PROFIT-
MAKING POTENTIAL AND, IN THE
LONG-TERM, (30-50 YEARS),
VIRTUALLY WIPE US OFF THE MAP.
2. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE HISTORICALLY
DONE THINGS WHICH HAVE HAD AN
INFLUENCE ON THE SIZE OF THE
TOTAL INDUSTRY, THESE EFFORTS
HAVE NOT BEEN CO-ORDINATED,
PLANNED AND FULLY INTEGRATED
INTO OUR "NORMAL" ACTIVITIES.
3. SOMETHING'S GOT TO CHANGE.
c7N
CO
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t-14
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999

0
0 INCIDENCE BY SEX
C.L
0
Go-
CD
oool@
go-
0
E 46
O A
(D
0
% 1 40-
CD N
3 5-
0 .0
0 30-
.... .... 1. I .... .... I F. 1,1111 .... 1. 71TIr
5 g g o g a 4 0 41 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 a a
7 0 2 3 4 3 6 7 8 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 e 7 a 3 4
TIME rERIOD
to
FEMALE
MALE
WK-170-0784

0
0 INCIDENCE BY SEX OVER TIME
CL
0 PRE AND POST S&H, SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE & TAXES
pRZ Clfl&g_q CIGARS PLAWS V11.7m IMOS at ?"m
INCENTI"S
55
50
R
E 43-
0 A
0
I 4 0
N
0
33
0
0
E 3 0-
0-
0) T"TTTIM II's it 011II
>
9 9
0 0 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 7 a a
TIME PERIOD
FEMALE
S1069H MALE
WK172-0784

WORST CASE
TODAY BY i990 2020 OBJECTIVE
------- ---------- ---------
1. 38% INCIDENCE 3OZ? 0 35%+
2. USAGE 25/OAY MAX. 25 lz MIN. 25
3. 75Z "DANGEROUS" 80%+ 100% MAX. 60
4. TPI > CH TPI > CPI
5. SOC. .UNACCEPT. LESS
6. 62 BLN/YEAR MAX. 50 BLN. MIN. 60 BLN.
170) - CD
8. EXIST.COMMUNICATIONS LESS NONE
9. SPONSORSHIPS ? NONE
<D98Z CON. LEAF ? ? 7
I 1. S. W. A. T. 13 MAX. 10 MGS. N/A
12. 45, 000 RETAIL LESS N/A ?
13.. VISIBLE MERCHAND. LESS N/A *84 LEVELS +
CO"PASSIVE" (S&H, ETC) 7 7 7
15. 3 PROD.PLANTS 2? 0 ?
16. X EMPLOYEES LESS 10 LOWER BUT..
17. $215MM PROFIT MAX $150MM. 0 $300MM+
18. PROFIT GROWTH -20%+ LOSS 0 GROWTH
TRADEMARKS
.... ETC, ETC O-INVOLVES POLICIES
r-J
011
co
--_j
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999

0
0
CL QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE
-----------
------------
CD
NON- 1. POPULATION TRENDS, PROJECTIONS
2. IMMIGRATION TRENDS, PROJECTIONS
E
0 3. STARTING RATES, TRENDS, PROJECTIONS
1. WHY DO PE
CD
0 4. INCIDENCE TRENDS, PROJECTIONS
% 2. WHY 00 THEY CONTINUE7
CD
5. USAGE TRENDS, PROJECTIONS
6. CARTON USAGE, PACK SIZE
:r 3. %Y DO THEY SMOKE AS MANY AS THEY DO?
0
0 7. SMOKING & HEALTH ATTITUDES
4. WHAT ARE THEIR ATTITUDES?
cr B. QUITTING, ATTEMPTS, INTENTIONS
5. ARE THEY CHANGING ATT./BEHAVIOR?
9. ROLE OF SPECIFIC BRANDS
10. QUITTING, RE-STARTING RATES
"CONFIRMED" 6. WHY 00 THEY WANT TO QUIT 7
000
to
w EX-SMOKERS It. EX-SMOKER ATTITUDES, NON-SMOKERS, ETC.
7. WHY 00 THEY RE-START?
U-B. s- FOR CANADA PLUS SELECTED COUNTRIES
Z 8 V 6 9 0

>
0
0
CL POTENTIAL AREAS OF INVESTIGATION/ACTION*
0
"NEW" PRODUCTS "NEW" ATTITUOES/USAGE
-------------- ----------------
f
0
0 S
-STAR 2.
0
CURRENT
4. 5.
=r ACTIVITIES1
0
0 6. USAGE PRO
E, T
cr
7. 8.
> EX-SMOI
9.
0 FOR EXISTING MARKETS/BRAND TYPES
N.B. s- THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY ACTIVITIES ON PRODUCTS
OTHER THAN CIGARETTES (EG. SMOKELESS, NON-TOBACCO,
ETC.) OR AREAS EXCLUDING CANADA.
VD69Z01