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B.A.T. BOARD STRATEGIES
SMOKING AND HEALTH.
BASIC ASSURPTIONS
1. Associations of various diseases with smoking are regarded by
most authorities as having been established. There will be a
reduction in the Incidence of ceritaLn smoking- associated
diseases which will be represented oy anti-smoking forces as
a consequence of product modifications and hence as evidence
of causation.
2. Although no sudden breakthrough is envisaged to solve the
smoking and health problem, scientific research will give
rise to products neon to be healthier by some authorities.
3. Nevertheless smoking will continue as a widely practised
habit albeit with a zero growth rate in some markets.
4. Psychopharmacological aide will continue in wide use.
Certain drugswill be permitted and become accepted for
social use.
5. Public interest in questions relating smoking to health will
be maintained In developed countries and will increase at an
accelerated rate in the majority of lesser developed markets.
This enhanced interest will be provoked by supra-national
bodies, a. g. World Health Organization (W. H. 0. ) and by
political pressure groups, e.g. "War on Want".
S. Smoker* will continue to look to the industry to develop
products which they consider will reduce the risks to health.
7. Smokers, industry employees. the wholesale and retaLl
trades and tobacco farmers will look to the industry to defend
their interests.
S. Managers in companies, and particularly No. 119, will C)
Increasingly be asked questions about the smoking and health
issue. __J
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9. The Tobacco Industry will be better able to deiegid itself
against attack if it presents a united response.
10. Competitors will hoisour industry agreements if it is to
their advantage to do so.
Il. While in some markets a more aggressive approach to the
smoking and health issue will be taken by the industry,
inflexibility and over-reaction by the industry will create
hostility among intelligent and fair-minded people.
12. The industry will be criticised increasingly for spending
substantial sums on advertising as It will be seen as encourag-
Ing the smoking habit. Nevertheless there will be no valid
evidence that brand advertising increases total consumption.
13. Medical authorities will influence public opinion and govern-
ments to oppose smoking.
14. Governments and medical authorities will be concerned to
increase control over the industry and its products. In some
cases the authority will press for the laboratory work
associated with control to be financed by the industry.
is. Legal restrictions on smoking and on the Industry will
increase and there will be more pressure on the Industry to
make further concessions.
is. There will be a shift In public opinion In favour of stricter
enforcement of existing laws but this will be offset to some
extent by a widening resentment of further intrusion on
personal liberties.
17. There will be a tendency to relate specific smoke
constituents to particular diseases.
is. Carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen and other constituents
will become increasingly regarded as health hazards for
smokers.
19. Governments win exert pressure to achieve maximum limits
on specific smoke constituents such as tar, nicotine, carbon
monoxide and nitrogen oxides.
20. League tables will be published in more countries and win be
enlarged by the inclusion of further chemical substances in
tobacco smoke, there will be a demand for a system for
simplifying their comprehension.
21. Nicotine will continue to be considered by some doctors an
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legs harmful to the majority of smokers than tar. Never-
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theless nicotine dependency will be recognised and
manufacturers will be encouraged to lower nicotine levels
further and/or improve the ratio of nicotine to tar.
Published work on animals will show nicotine to be weakly
carcinogenic.
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B.A.T 1NDusTRIEq p.LC. - MWO&ESOTA DEpOSnWV COPY_ PNWCED pURWANT To I VII.D. OF
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22. Governments will demand that heuiLh warning clauses
become increasingly more severe even to the point of
stating that some diseases are caused primarily by
smoking.
23.
Because cigar tar is more tumorigenic than cigarette tar
in animal tests, certain authorities will regard the smoking
of cigars as being harmful.
24.
The higher levels of carbon monoxide yields from cigars
will be recognised by certain authorities as harmful to
smokers and non-smokers.
25.
More doctors will come to the view that smokers substantially
reduce the risk to their health if they do not inhale.
26.
People will continue to smoke cigarettes in different ways and
investigations outside the industry will establish that league
tables can be misleading.
27.
Health authorities will encourage the industry to pursue a
course of product modification but there will be no single
product solution.
28.
Modifications to products will have more assurance for
consumers if health authorities are seen to be involved.
29.
Although product modifications will be seen by the anti-
smokers as a step towards the elimination of smoking, a
body of responsible practical doctors will recognise these
as progress towards products which, in their view. are
less hazardous.
30.
Reduction in biological activity per cigarette will be accepted
by doctors as the main desirable criterion for the next few
years at least.
31.
Governments will issue guidelines or Instructions with
respect to additives and tobacco substitutes and increasingly
will demand date on inhalation toxicity.
32.
When significantly modified cigarettes achieve substantial
sales or wide acceptance some opponents of smoking who
had supported them will oppose them.
33.
Increasingly governments will require a declaration on packs
of the yield of certain smoke constituents and the level of
inclusion of any non-tobacco materials.
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34.
We shall be able to achieve technically, with all-tobacco
cigarettes, all that can be done with first generation
substitutes in smoking and health terms.
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B.A.T INDUSTRIES P.LC. - M94NESOTA DEPOSITORY COPY - PRODUCED PURSUANT To I VILD. OF
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05. Some unti-si:uokers vill conlinue to believe that low
nicotine smoking makes quitting easier and will, therefore,
encourage its development.
36. Those in @ther industries will seek advantage from the threat
to the tobacco industry
(a) The chemical industry in general will adopt a
wait and see attitude in relation to new
smoking materials.
(b) Alternative natural materials'will be
considered for exploitation in cigarettes.
(c) Alternatives to nicotine will be explored as
will alternatives to the smoking habit.
(d) Attempts will be made to exploit the wish to
give up smoking.
37. Companies will increasingly sell products for which health
claims will be implied.
38. Generally any change in the legal position will impose
greater liability on manufacturers to their consumers.
39. There will be increasing pressure for the Introduction of
systems of differential excise taxes for cigarette products
with high or low smoke deliveries.
40. Increasingly governments will use excise as a health
measure raising excise taxes to penal levels.
41.
Smoking will become an increasingly unacceptable social
habit. The opportunities for smoking will decrease.
Non-smokers will become increasingly vocal and passive
smoking will Increase in importance as an issue.
42.
Further work on passive smoking will provide a basis for
Increasing allegations that constituents In side-stream
smoke have a deleterious effect on non-smokers.
43.
Smoking during pregnancy will become an issue of
Increasing importance.
44.
LVEutagenic studies will increase and will lead to allegations
that smoking by males will adversely affect progeny.
45.
Opponents of smoking in developed countries will increasingly
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criticize the industry's operations in Third World countries
and in particular on the following grounds:-
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(a) Failing to disciose iniurmnEwn on tar and
nicotine levels.
(b) Having a brand structure of considerably
higher tar and nicotine contents than that
in the developed countries, even though
this is in deference to consumer
preference.
(c) Applying double standards by selling the
same brand as is sold in developed
countries but with a higher tar and
nicotine content than the domestic version
in the brand's country of origin.
(d) Adversely affecting food production by
encouraging the local growing of tobacco
and the expansion of this growth.
(e) Destroying the poor man's source of fuel
by the fact that In a number of countries
wood is used for curing tobacco.
(f) Using advertising and promotional
methods not permitted in developed
countries.
November 1978
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B.A.T IMXwMms p.Lc. MmUMA DOKW"My Copy pWWCED PURSUANT To VILD. OF
CONSENT JUDGMENT DATED SWU IN SrATE DF AIINNEsorA, Er AL v. pNXV Afmgm, Er CASE No. Cl-944M5