THE INFLUENCE OF LEAGUE TABLES ON CIGARETTE MARKETS The New Products Committee requested that a survey be made to assess the influence of 'Tar' League Tables on cigarette sales in territories where these tables are available to the consumer public. The primary interest was the effect on sales of 'high delivery' cigarettes. In this report 'Tar' is considered to be that index of cigarette smoke used to compile the League Table, i.e. U.S.A. - Total Particulate Matter minus Water minus Nicotine Canada - Total Particulate Matter minus Nicotine Australia - Total Particulate Matter West Germany - Condensate minus Water minus Nicotine Sweden - Total Particulate Matter In order to simplify the data, the published 'Tar' deliveries for each year have been considered on the basis of dividing the range into three equal numerical divisions (upper, middle and lower thirds). The total sales have then been calculated for each third and these are shown in Figures 1 - S. Also shown are the numerical ranges of each third. From these figures the following conclusions have been drawn. 1. AUSTRALIA The market appears to be substantially stable with - very few cigarettes in the lower third. The major sales are in the middle third although over the four years 1968/71, the delivery range has fallen from 14 21 to 13 - 18. Because B. & H. filter has maintained its 'Tar' delivery and sales, the brand now falls in the upper third (see Figure 1). This C=> category shows an increase in sales volume but a reduced CD C_-@, 'Tar' delivery range, 19 - 26 compared with 22 - 30 mg/ cigarette. (Further details are given in Appendix 1) . BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 1 5 April 1999 2 2 U.S.A. The delivery range for each third has remained virtually constant indicating that the overall choice of delivery available to the smoker has remained unchanged. However, possibly due to the wider exposure of the smoking public to smoking and health arguments, there has been a noticeable trend in the sales pattern. The sales in the upper third have fallen by 2700 million/month over 1968/71 while the middle third has correspondingly grown by 2800 million/month (see Figure 2). There has been no substantial change in the lower third. The middle third contains all the major brands, i.e. Winston, Kool, Salem, Marlboro and Kent. The upper third (22 - 30 mg/cigarette) is dominated by plain cigarettes Pall Mall, Camel and Lucky Strike. (Further details are given in Appendix 2). 3. CANADA The delivery range for each third has decreased due to reduced 'Tar' deliveries given by brands on the market from 1968/71, together with new introductions with low deliveries. The overall choice of delivery available to the smoker has decreased at the upper level due to manufacturers producing cigarettes with lower 'Tar' deliveries and in one case stopping production of a high delivery cigarette. The effect on sales is a reduction in the lower and middle thirds with a corres- ponding increase in the upper third as brands with increased sales volume and comparatively small reductions in 'Tar' delivery qualify for inclusion in the adjacent higher 'Tar' category (see Figure 3). cz;p The upper third in 1971 had a delivery range of 20 - 27 C-- N.) compared with 27 - 36 for 1968. Corresponding changes are BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 3 noted in the delivery ranges for the lower and middle thirds. (Further details are given in Appendix 3). 4. WEST GERMANY The delivery range for each third has remained virtually constant indicating that the overall choice of 'Tar' delivery available to the smoker has remained unchanged. Possibly due to the continued exposure of the public to smoking and health arguments, the lower third shows increasing sales and contains the major brands, i.e. HB, Ernte 23, Peter Stuyvesant (see Figure 4). However, there appears to be indications of a rise in sales of cigarettes in the upper third (23 - 28 mg/cigarette) suggesting a possible return to favour with the smoker of a full flavour high delivery cigarette. The major brands in this category are regular or long size plain cigarettes, e.g. Reval, Roth Hindle and Overstulz. The middle third (18 - 22 mg/cigarette) has a pattern of decreasing sales in spite of Marlboro K.S.F.T. being the leading brand in this category. (Further details are given in Appendix 4). 5. SWEDEN The general pattern of the Swedish cigarette market is similar to that of the U.S.A. and may be an indication of the effect of smoking and health arguments on a smoking -public. The delivery range for each third has remained virtually constant. The sales in the upper third have fallen by 71 million/month over 1968/71, while the middle third CD sales have increased by a greater margin, 97 million/month. There has been no substantial change in the lower third (see Figure 5). As with the U.S. market, the middle third (.-n BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 4 contains the major brands e.g. Prince, John Silver (plain and filter), Commerce (plain and filter), Glenn and Bond Street. The upper third is dominated by king size plain cigarettes - Ritz, Bill and a superlong filter cigarette - New Look. (Further details are given in Appendix 5). Figures 1 5 enable judgments to be made with respect to future cigarette launches. To launch a new cigarette in a segment having potential sales growth it would be likely to have a 'Tar' delivery within the following ranges:- Territory 'Tar' Delivery Range (mg/cig) U.S.A. 12 - 20 Sweden 17 - 23 Canada 18 - 25 Germany 12 - 18 Australia 13 - 20 C=) C-D BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 Ifo off, rp Ago I 14 0 M 0 O"Afte to @p a W" -TMAP. M64 r 14 IDOLS I 1w wfol TRAP CD neft 0 0 CD 0 :r 0 E, cr all H oil. M4 10 14 -11 II-if cn Rx4 Still, $I A@m m p an# Fl-voisn' Volt eon r A.Lp v.," rVM 'Low rev" poortiobw -Pe OF LIP Elko*r 061= 0.9 Ok-04 rum PLIf W 24 44. me foopeAts L* 'It 'LI - S. ,Ss. ""I'l K%qu Ls 4- flit flit 11sl IIN WAR. fill 1vv 1161 t ri FIGURE 1. AUSTRALIA 66"NOO I SALES VS 'TAR' CATEGORY 1968171 know SVoj JV41vtP W At. tarosmitl 0 Low get '%60 "no 94" 0 0 02- 20 Idivir.-I a Ks F let al"F 900L lit - 20 1 1;.,i, ou si F gFlq Ott, F LwiWn-d Xlf f A.5F K,,,F Sakai "A"go N't X's 0 pct- ova * Kr s: fo-400-al Ls F A as p -04@66 Mr 0 cr 21 - iv PA@ #IQ L K OW Al fool,* KV) Fftm-u It (of Riv [--rave K.-, -t-114 Ao ffy* #,Pat Ifif FIGURE 2. U.S.A. @q(,Woool qAT.P(; Xfq ,rAT), rArrrr,.r)vv kl;kyols- 90:0wos MA04cp ov PAW oqrf"4y. CL 0 C [,mmo *"weft 0 CD 0 -% Esh4r la) IM VAMWXIF "4v&M Kit 0 AAfaw Ave s-WIGUbAkcif its" Kip cr of- 29 Om" X ~At otio. we" hoo iw 45F mnw "kit 'v" Mff lwvws 45f fmoe." CO kofts". Age C"44 W KPIP rf r-WA W60K CD WAWW'W Xsdr 0"W"d i KIFF to IN now" wo, cmow 6 0 f + law fill I%bj oil. 1170 WA 0. FIGURE 3. CANADA Vq6SZOON SALES VS 'TAR' CATEGORY 1968/71 nG*AJ 14 -rA e vft"d 0 Blow# MAMOD too A%m' W ostv. 0 CL r" LO Ml One (D Mir r+ -h 0 pftwc-&- aw Kir &Aostroo OM i 14 - #1 It"m fall c) "AP eVam KW 0 A Ks$ cr Imo, ago CAft,. 0ISF KAt"I Kw XI 21 - is. ItIVAL ks&) Urb MOW L 1(r) L ------ A-01, &Ok#A Amy,I -tsas"64 :L.", Aftu &SW' I I "A40&4. f I I 4@ftifftm Attoo, j(- I 21 23, a It- 27 CA 11w 141 file 191,1 off. MO $011 wtof G FIGURE 4. WEST ERRANY SALES VS 'TAR' CATEGORY 1968/71. 666@ IIAV 9@ eiqLunloo LISII!.Ie 10 GDUIAOJd jol juawnoop ool.Ve ir r Ln P it ft i 2 5 APPENDIX 1 EFFECT OF LEAGUE TABLE PUBLICATIONS ON CIGARETTE SALES IN AUSTRALIA The Victorian Anti-Cancer Council has published three smokers' information tables based on analyses carried out at Monash University The first table gave 'Tar' deliveries for twelve brands of cigarettes whilst the tables published in late 1969 and April 1970 contained a wider selection of brands on the market. It is too early to see any definite effect of league table publication on cigarette sales. However, a number of observations can be drawn from a study of these tables and cigarette sales data:- 1. Twelve new brands were introduced in 1970; eight of these brands had a 'Tar' delivery per cigarette of 15 mg or less. 2. Thirty-one brands of cigarettes reported in the April 1971 table have reduced 'Tar' deliveries compared to the reported values in the 1969 table. 3. There has been an increase in the number of brands with reported 'Tar' deliveries in the 13 - 20 mg/ cigarette bracket; forty-three out of fifty-six brands in 1971 compared to twenty out of forty-three in 1969, largely due to manufacturers producing cigarettes of lower 'Tar' delivery. This point is shown graphically in Figure 6. 4. Twelve brands have sales figures which indicate a steady demand from the consumer; viscount having by far the largest sales (190 million/month). However, the CD majority of these brands only have a small volume, less than 5 million cigarettes per month. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 6 5. Thirty brands have falling sales figures and among these brands we find Rothmans K.S.F., Peter Stuyvesant, Craven 'Al (CT and F) and Kool. 6. Twelve brands had increasing sales during the period of study to March 1972, and are shown in Table 1, together with their 'Tar' deliveries, sales figures and manufacturers. TABLE 1 AUSTRALIA - BRANDS WITH INCREASING SALES FIGURES 'Tar' Delivery March 1972 Sales Brand Manufacturer (mg/cig) (millions/month) 1971 Table Hallmark Wills 5 23 Craven 'A' SP Mild wills 9 24 Rothmans No. 7 Rothmans 11 13 Park Drive P. Morris 13 45 Escort wills is 157 Dunhill K. S. F. Rothmans 16 40 Marlboro P. Morris 17 187 Cambridge L. S.F. Rothmans 17 27 Alpine P. Morris 17 92 Chesterfield K. S. F. Rothmans is 10 Cambridge L. S. F. M. Rothmans 18 17 Benson & Hedges wills 19 400 K. S. F. I I I A histogram of total sales versus 'Tar' level is shown in Figure 7, this demonstrates the fall-off in sales of cigarettes yielding above 20 mg tar/cigarette and the growth in sales of the 13 - 15 mg tar/cigarette. C_rl co BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 'I 000251h9 vlrivu,Lsflv .9 auflDia 0 It 19 II IL It ofa J1 It of .4 u 41I 7F) -f5f @V5W) 100025960 AUSAMU UVI, SA SRqVS A-1 C-) viivH.LsnV a Li #4 El if 4 CY) Ul) m 0 0 F 0 16. uw M d fw*A 0 7 APPENDIX 2 INFLUENCE OF THE PUBLICATION OF LEAGUE TABLES ON CIGARETTE SAL-ES IN THE UNITED STATES The Federal Trade Commission published its first comprehensive league table of 'Tar' and nicotine deliveries in February 1969. A study of sales data for the period March 1968 to March 1972 indicates that total sales of cigarettes have remained static around the 42000 million/month. The publication of league tables appears io have had little effect on sales of any particular brand of cigarette. However, there appears to be a consumer switch from plain to filter tipped cigarettes of lower 'Tar' delivery shown by the fall in sales of cigarettes with 'Tar' deliveries 23 mg/cigarette or more. in this group eleven of the fourteen brands are plain cigarettes; three brands (Pall mall, Lucky Strike and Camel) accounted for 22% of total cigarette sales in March 1968 but only 14% in March 1972. This is equivalent to a drop in sales of 3200 million cigarettes/month. The growth area in cigarette sales is found within the group of cigarette brands having 'Tar' deliveries between 18 and 22 mg/cigarette. In March 1968 these brands accounted for 62% of total sales whilst in March 1972 they had secured a 72% share of the market. The leading brands with rising sales are shown in Table 2. C=> CD GIN BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 8 TABLE 2 LEADING BRANDS WITR RISING SALES AND 'TAR' DELIVERIES FOR 1969 AND 1972 'Tar' Delivery Brand Type 1969 1972 Kool K.S.F.T. M 19 18 Kool. S.K.S.F.T. M 21 19 Belair S. K. S. F. T. M 19 18 Viceroy K.S.F.T. 19 17 Viceroy S.K.S.F.T. 20 19 Kent K. S. F. T. 17 17 Kent S.K.S.F.T. 19 20 Marlboro L. S. F. T. 20 18 Marlboro K.S.F.T. 21 19 Marlboro S.K.S.F.T. 22 19 Parliament S. K. S. F. T. 19 19 Salem S. K. S. F. T. M 21 19 Camel K.S.F.T. 21 19 In contrast, thirty-three of the fifty-six brands studied in this group have falling sales. Sales of cigarettes according to their length -show increased sales in the long and super king category with decreasing sales of regular, king and luxury category. Details are given in Table 3. C=> CD C-D NJ C7". BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 9 TABLE 3 SALES VS LENGTH FOR CIGARETTES AT 'TAR' DELIVERY OF 18 - 22 MG/CIG Sales (million/month) Length Plain Filter 1968 1072 Regular 2 1 248 138 Long 4 1826 2579 King 22 19446 18524 Luxury 1 19 4 Super 26 4980 7548 Brands with 'Tar' deliveries of less than 18 mg/cigarette are all filter tipped cigarettes and represent 11% of total cigarette sales. Twenty-five brands were studied in this segment of the market. Eleven brands have rising sales figures; seven of these brands were launched since the Federal Trade Commission started league table publication, notably Vantage, Doral and Eve. In spite of these additional brands, total sales represented by the under 18 mg/cig 'Tar' delivery group has risen by only 0.5% The gradual reduction of 'Tar' deliveries of cigarettes by C=) the manufacturers is shown in Figure 8 where the number of brands C-D at each 'Tar' delivery are shown for March 1969 and March 1972. The maximum has moved from 21 mg/cigarette to 19 mg/cigarette. A breakdown of brand 'Tar' levels (10 24 mg/cigarette) according to manufacturer is shown in Table 4. This indicates possible differ- ences in 'Tar' policy with L. & M. concentrating in a very narrow band while Reynolds and American Tobacco present a wider spectrum. The Philip Morris and Brown & Williamson patterns are similar except that Brown & Williamson tend to have lower values. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia IS April 1999 M > TABLE 4 q - 0 0 CL 0 NUMBER OF BRANDS PER KANUFACTURER AT 'TAR' LEVELS C 3 CD r+ 'Tar Level (mg) No. of Brands according to Manufacturer 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 < Philip Morris 1969 1 1 1 1 2 6 1 1 CD 1972 2 6 5 2 1 0 Brown vWilliamson 1969 1 1 4 1 2 1 r+ ra, 1972 1 4 2 3 1 :r 0 0 0 Reynolds 1969 2 1 3 4 E 3 1972 1 2 2 3 4 Cr American 1969 1 2 2 3 1 2 1972 2 2 3 1 1 1 M -h W Lorillard 1969 1 2 1 1 1 5 2 co 1972 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 L. & M. 1969 2 2 3 3 1 1972- 2 5 5 V96(@ZOOU A breakdown of sales according to 'Tar' delivery of cigarettes indicates similar characteristics to that of number of brands against 'Tar' delivery and is shown graphically in Figure 9. C=> ON BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 (L)jj/btU) Ad'iAITAU UVJ,. file sulivau du dauw(IN 100025)66 IVIS'n sungia 6c It 4.1 4111 it 42 21 it tv n 41 4 Li Lim CL UD 75 -TtW pstow iftw co 6M I!jdV 9@ LiqwnioC) LISII!Ja 10 DDUIAOJd jol luownoop oo.LVS v t a cn > < 0< LI 12 - APPENDIX 3 INFLUENCE OF LEAGUE-TABLE PUBLICATION ON CIGARETTE SALES IN CANADA The Canadian Health & Welfare Department published their first 'Tar' and nicotine delivery table on 16th December, 1968. Cigarettes analysed by the University of Waterloo are listed according to size and type in the first report, but are listed alphabetically in subsequent reports at approximately six-monthly intervals. A study of the total sales figures indicates a slow rise from 4200 million cigarettes/month in December 1968 to 4700 million/ month in December 1971. The picture is complicated by an apparent seasonal influence on sales shown by the quarterly total sales figures in Table 5. TABLE 5 QUARTERLY TOTAL CIGARETTE SALES FOR 1968/71 (Sales in millions/month) 1968 1969 1970 1971 March 3502 3348 3751 3522 June 3695 3552 4048 4371 September 3832 4004 4249 4458 December 4203 4364 4462 4699 t increase March 20 30 19 23 to December C:) r---) Canadian smokers buy more cigarettes in the quarter ending December and smallest number in the quarter ending in March. At O.C. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 13 - this time it is not possible to differentiate between the influence of 'Tar' table"publications and the seasonal drop in cigarette sales. Table 6 shows the brands with sales of 100 million cigarettes per month in December 1972. TABLE 6 BRANDS WITH SALES IN EXCESS OF 100 MILLION CIGARETTES PER MONTH Brand Type Sales 'Tar' Delivery 1972 *Belvedere R.S.F. Rising 16 Black Cat K. S. F. Steady 22 Cameo K. S.M. F. Steady 23 Du maurier R.S.F. Steady 15 Du Maurier K. S.F. Rising 22 Export R. S. (P) Falling 21 *Export 'A' R. S. F. Rising 19 Mark Ten R. S. F. Rising 18 Mark Ten K. S. P. Rising 18 Peter Jackson K. S. F. Steady 22 Player's R.S. (P) Falling 23 *Player's R.S.F. Rising 22 *Rothmans K. S.F. Rising 23 Seven of the thirteen brands have rising sales figures; two brands, Player's R.S. (P) and Export R. S. (P) have falling C=) sales; and the remaining four brands have been steady over the period of this study. The brands marked by * are the leading brands in their respective class, i.e. regular and king size N%0 filter. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 14 - An analysis of sales figures for December 1968 and December 1971 according to size and type of cigarette is given in Table 7, and the increase of 800 million cigarettes/month of king size filter brands results from a general increase in sales of twenty of the thirty-three brands in this category. TABLE 7 SALES (MILLIONS/MONTH) ACCORDING TO LENGTH AND TYPE FOR 1968 AND 1971 Size December 1968 December 1971 Regular 718 519 Regular Cork Tip Plain 11 5 King 63 31 Regular Menthol 20 23 Regular 1462 1802 Compact 86 3 King Filter 1017 1903 King Menthol 180 328 Premium 61 46 Premium Menthol 18 22 During the period of this study, manufacturers have reduced the 'Tar' deliveries of existing brands.and introduced new brands with deliveries in the lower third' of the 'Tar' delivery spectrum. However, the Canadian smoking public appear not to have-responded to the smoking and health publicity and there is a continuous demand for some brands in spite of possible adverse placing in the league tables, i.e. Export 'Al R.-S.F. changed CD BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 1 5 April 1999 from being the leading brand in the 'middle third' category in 1968 to the leading brand in the 'Upper third' category in 1971. Rothmans K.S.F. and Peter Jackson K. S. F. followed a similar pattern in 1969. In 1968, the lower limit of the 'upper third' category of 'Tar' delivery was 27 mg/cigarette and this became the UPPER limit in the same category in 1971. This is an indication-of the extent of manufacturers action in reducing 'Tar' deliveries of cigarettes on the market. The brands in the 'lower third' 'Tar' category have a reduced total sales volume and some brands have been withdrawn. The fall in total sales of 'middle third' 'Tar' delivery cigarettes is accounted for by the change of at least three large sales volume brands from 'middle' to 'upper third' 'Tar' category as described above. The distribution of the number of brands and total sales according to the 'Tar' delivery of the cigarette is shown in Figures 10 and 11 respectively. In general, the market shows an overall 11% increase in sales in December 1971 over December 1968. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 iU%itba Z@,Il L)UNVOU dU ddUWIIU 100025972 VUVNVO 101 sunoil II rt de to It go I" $1 '64 tj 'St 4 of H LO CL ua@ SIM" 41, CLa I I L I a @A I " Vb ;@Jt 04,1vo I 0 0 O'25, @ 7 3 V(3VNVZ) 'IT aunoij t it At it vt it 4 ft At it 3w w m or &I a Lo a lo of 6 j 16 t CL LO lot L W 0 Al we "iv 16 - APPENDIX 4 INFLUENCE OF THE PUBLICATION OF LEAGUE TABLES ON CIGARETTE SALES IN WEST GERMANY D. M. Journal has published 'Tar' and nicotine data in the form of league tables since 1961. Tables have not been published on a regular basis and those from 1968 to 1972 have been considered in this report. The smoke delivery figures have been complicated by the change-over from 'wet' to 'dry' 'Tar'. 'Dry' 'Tar' is the current smoke index and the earlier 'wet' 'Tar' results have been converted to a 'dry' basis using a factor of 0.89. (Derived from averaging the 1968 results). The total sales of the brands considered have increased by about 16% from 1968 to 1971. The non-filter segment has maintained a steady 14% of the total sales during this period. This is due to the increased sales of Reval and Roth Handle balancing out the falling sales of the remaining seven non-filter brands. However, the filter segment of the market shows a 20% increase in sales over the same period, and it. is here that we find the major growth area, namely in increased sales of brands shown in Table 8. The remaining eighteen filter brands all show decreasing sales figures; Peter Stuyvesant and Ernte 23 with sales in excess of 1000 million cigarettes/month showing reductions of about 150 million cigarettes/month over this period are among these eighteen filter brands. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 - 17 TABLE 8 FILTER BRANDS WITH'INCREASING SALES-(MILLIONS/MONTH) 1968 1971 Brand 'Tar' 'Tar' Sales Delivery Sales Delivery Milde Sorte 79 14 153 13 Krone 231 14 380 13 Lord Extra 545 15 1077 13 Atika 157 15 309 14 Luz 595 16 781 is HB 1755 16 2012 16 Marlboro 94 17 147 19 Kurmark 107 17 139 16 Camel 24 22 301 17 Roth Ha@ndle Filter 35 16 54 14 Reyno so 20 53 17 Kim - 74 14 The range of 'Tar' deliveries available to the smoker in West Germany has remained virtually unchanged from 1968 to 1971 as is evident from Figure 4. The 'lower third' category consists of those cigarettes with 'Tar' delivery of less than 18 mg/cigarette, the 'middle third' those between 19 and 22 mg/cigarette and the 'upper third' 23 to 28 mg/cigarette. The slight variation in the reported 'Tar' delivery from year to year is responsible for the change-over of the leading filter brands HB, and Ernte 23 from the 'lower third' category into the 'middle third' category; similarly the change- BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 16 April 1999 - 18 - I of the leading non-filter brands Reval and Roth Handle from 'middle third' category to the 'upper third' category. The latter two brands are long size cigarettes and both have sales figures in excess of 200 million per month. The growth area of cigarette sales remains in the 'lower third' delivery segment of the market with an increase of 20% in sales in 1971 over.sales in 1968. However, there is some evidence to suggest a growth in sales in the 'upper third' with increased sales of the two long size non-filter cigarettes Reval and Roth Hindle. The 'middle third' 'Tar' delivery category shows a decline in sales which is attributed to the transfer of the high sales volume non-filter Reval and Roth Hindle into the 'upper third' 'Tar' category. The distribution of the number of brands and total sales according to 'Tar' delivery of the cigarette is shown in Figures 12 and 13 respectively. The distribution of brands shows a peak in 1972 at 15 mg/cigarette 'Tar' delivery with a fairly even distribution over the range 13 - 19 mg/cigarette. The largest number of brands in 1968 was at a 'Tar' delivery of 18 mg/cigarette. The absence of reported brands with a '.Tar' delivery of less than 13 mg/cigarette could mean that manufacturers have some capacity held in reserve to reduce Tar' deliveries should circumstances require. The deduction which may be drawn from Figure 13, i.e. that the growth area of cigarette sales is in the area of 'Tar' deliveries from 13 to 19 mg/cigarette, -confirms the conclusion already drawn from Figure 4. A close watch should be kept on the future sales record of the two long size non-filter brands Reval and Roth Hindle which are responsible for the rise in sales of the 'upper third' segment of the market. BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 0 CX 0 CD 0 0 0 cn CD I A A- L v of to of a of 01 la I* Is X& u FIGURE 12. WEST GERMANY L 1 4 C,7 0 0 f) I NlJMBFR OF BRANnS VS 'TAR' DELIVERY (Mqlciq) OJ@@J/LJul) AdaJIVIAU IUVJAI Hill Sa'IVS 10002@M ANVWUHD ISM 'El 3HO61,j, ot w Itc t 41 cL vt ft dt I Li if 44 tI to 0 2 CL LO CL wow 19 - APPENDIX 5 INFLUENCE OF THE-PUBLICATION OF LEAGUE TABLES ON CIGARETTE SALES IN SWEDEN 'Tar' and nicotine data is published jointly by the Hygiene Institution and Carolean Institute three times each year on cigarettes which are sampled over preceding periods of four months, i.e. January-April, May-August and September- December. The previous Figures 2 (U.S.A.) and 5 (Sweden) show a degree of similarity although the Swedish cigarette market is small compared to that of the U.S.A. Sales show only a 5% increase; 786 million/month in 1968 to 827 million/month in 1971. The pattern is further complicated by an apparent seasonal influence on sales similar to that found for the Canadian market. This is shown by the quarterly sales figures in Table 9. TABLE 9 TOTAL QUARTERLY CIGARETTE SALES FOR 1968 TO 1971 (Sales in millions/month) 1968 1969 1970 1971 March 660 750 769 676 June 747 791 791 831 September 760 806 858 824 December 897 937 931 942 BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 20 The non-filter segment of the market has a reduced share of the market, 38% of total sales in 1968 down to 24% in 1971. This is an actual decrease in the sale of nearly 100 million cigarettes/month, i.e. a 32% reduction of sales in this segment. The filter brands show an increase from 62% to 76% of total sales over the same period, an increase of 138 million cigarettes/ month, i.e. a 28% increase in sales of this segment of the market. Sixty-nine brands are considered in this Appendix and only ten brands have rising sales figures of which eight major brands are shown in Table 10. TABLE 10 1968 1971 'Tar' Sal. 'Tart Brand Type Sales Delivery es Delivery Commerce Non-filter 48 26 70 25 Commerce Filter 57 23 109 23 Commerce Menthol Filter 8 23 20 22 Glenn Filter 22 22 51 20 Gold Dollar Filter 4' 23 10 20 Hobson Filter - - 27 22 Checker Filter 6 19 9 19 Bond Street Filter - 43 19 CD f The leading brands in 1968 were Prince, a king size filter c7r. C: cigarette with sales of 194 million cigarettes/month and John Silver a regular size non-filter cigarette with sales of 165 million cigarettes/month. In 1971, Prince maintained its place at the BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 21 top with 191 million cigarettes/month but John Silver has dropped to third place with sales of 84 million/month, being displaced by Commerce filter, a small size filter cigarette with sales of 109 million/month. Seventeen brands have maintained their sales volume and the remaining twenty-nine brands all have falling sales figures. The overall range of 'Tar' delivery available to the Swedish smoker has remained virtually unchanged from 1968 to 1971 as shown previously in Figure S. The range of each of the lower, middle and upper third 'Tar' delivery categories have decreased slightly in their magnitude as 'Tar' deliveries have been marginally reduced. There is little evidence that any one brand has a dramatically reduced 'Tar' delivery and most of the reductions have been of the order of 2 mg/cigarette. The major growth area is in the 'middle third' 'Tar' category where a 15% growth in sales is shown in Figure 5. In this category are found the five leading brands. The increase in the sales of cigarettes in the 'lower third' category is largely brought about by the introduction of new brands into this category, e.g. Hilton and Blend introduced in 1971. In 1968, the 'upper third' category contained nine filter brands out of a total of fourteen, by 1971 the number of non-filter brands was six out of a total of nine. Sales of cigarettes in the 'upper third' 'Tar' category dropped by 60% from 1968 to 1971 and this represents a decrease in sales of some 70 million cigarettes/ month. The distribution of the number of brands and total sales C__ according to 'Tar' delivery of the cigarette is shown in Figures 14 and 15 respectively. There has been a move by the manufacturers CDC to reduce 'Tar' deliveries of cigarettes as illustrated In Figure 14 BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 15 April 1999 22 - where the number of cigarette brands with 'Tar' deliveries between 18 and 22 mg/cigarette has increased from ten in 1968 to thirty-two in 1972. Formerly 58% of cigarette brands considered had a 'Tar' delivery between 22 and 27 mg/cigarette. The change in the position of the maximum in sales from 27 mg/cigarette in 1968 to 22 mg/cigarette in 1972 is clearly shown in Figure 15, and is due to the two leading brands, name Prince (K.S.F.) and Commerce (S. S.F. ) both having a 'Tar' delivery of 22 mg/cigarette. The overall picture of the cigarette market is similar to that of the United States in as much as the major growth area is shown to be in the 'middle third' 'Tar' category with some evidence of an increase in sales of cigarettes in the 'lower third' category. However, the 'upper third' category cigarettes show a marked decline in sales. The publication of league tables of 'Tar' deliveries does not appear to have had any marked effect on the sales of any particular brand. As in the United States, there does appear to be a consumer switch from non-filter to filter cigarettes, the exception being the 31% increase in sales of Commerce, a small size non-filter cigarette. J. R. COURTNEY JRC/JARE r__ C__ cc BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 1 6 April 1999 AdZAlqaU HVI, SA SUNVU9 dO H3UWnN UUOL"'-,)) 8 3 SC 41 Ell %t it st la n a a vc 19 0 It if -#4 go v it J. '14 vvj@. to CL W* ow 0 C > 0 0 10 iuuM.984 NaGMS 'ST a)IfIDIA 4i (I if of 4% WE JI I I it IT at 60 It di v 91 4F to 4 A jr di Lr L AMPID on*#.