bq ~ ~~~~u ~~~ ~e JkSI1 ~PyP L·J~~ The eons~er, of The 1990's Malbourne November 1990 I shall discuss the highlights of the wo:lt done by RISC -che International Research rnstitu:e of social Change and the impact Of societal change an consumer behaviour, Securitv and Status The period of late 1940s and 1950s in Europe was one of strong commitment to the work ethic, St: was a period not only of physical rebuilding hut also of rebuilding democratic structures, Only through hard work could economic and social security be achieved, This was a period when success was increasingly measured by the value of the status symbol owned: the decoration in your home, the number of modern labour saving devices owned and the type of car you drove, Unlike the States the mood in Europe was less that of optimism than.that of determination to dig yourselves and your country out: of the hole, The reactions against this set of values among the younger, post blar generation in the late 19605 and 19?09 were profound and far reaching, Personal Eltpression and eonsumerisep Anti authority, the demand for .indivldualitH and personal expression held sway in the late 19609 and early 19'10s, Protest trends such as consumer scepticism, return to nature, rejection of the benefits of technology, equal opportunities for women, an~~ bigness, anti industry were all reflections of the rebellion O against industrial society values, Consumerism grew out of this protest movement, a feeling that a production led industrial /Conrinued,,, O\ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: 0111 society did not give the consumer a fair deal. We have travelled a long way sines the 1960s. The protest movements have given way to an assimilation of those values throughout society. We are now seeing important ohanges in social values which will impact society over at least the next tenyears. We have selected those trends which are converging across Europe and therefore we believe will be most powerful in shaping people's lives and their behaviour as consumers, and citizens , Pleasure is Expected Increasinply as a Ripht, not as aeward To earlier generations faced with the need far long hours and arduous working conditions, pleasure was seep as a reward Which has to be earned. Within the past: generation, there has been a major change in this attitude, particularly among young people throughout Europe, increasingly the pursuit: of pleasure is regarded as a legitimate objective, as a part of the development of a full life. This has dramatically reduced people' s tolerance for boring or physically arduous work. Unless it is intrinsically interesting, work is no longer seen as a necessary or morally valuable activity, Closely allied to the pursuit of pleasure is the desire for emotional experience. People have the need to feel their body in new and different intensive ways, the desire for frequent emotional experiences and the enjoyment of doing something which is lust a little dangerous or forbidden. The effects of these trends have bean dramatic on the everyday life of Europeans, with the rapid growth of all kinds of labour savings devices not only at work, but also at home and in leisure activities. For large sections of the population there has been an increased willingness to trade off product advantages for additional canvedence. Examples of this are non-iron fabrier;, ~ O convenience foods, and the use of microwave ovens. These trends ·t~ have also contributed to a wider use of fast food outlets which /Canrlnued.,~ O\ ·-- · I Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill completely eliminate the need for meal preparation, with people reacting strongly against situations which they regard as time wasting or boring, the level of waiting which people are prepared to tolerate has diminished. Polvsensuality with the demise of the Cartesian model of man as a rational being, separated from animals, at least partly because of his reliance on the senses of sight and sound, we now have the model of man who savours all his senses [graferably all at thesame time):- smelling, tasting, touching, as well as seeing and hearing and being in touch with his affectivity. To the consumer, this means the joy of smelling fresh bread and nevl~t ground coffee, feeling silk next to one's skin or the texture of a ripe Brie, Adjustins to the complexity of modern life With the increasing pace of modern life and more varied demands placed on the individual, it is necessary to develop strategies to cope with life's increasing complexities. Instead of having a firm set of rules and routines to guide their behaviour, people are developing strategies which will enable them to cope with unforeseen events. More people are enjoying the ability to handle an increasing complex social situation. This is the generation of the filofax and the telephone answering machine, Unlike 10·15 pears ago, people are not looking to make their life more simple, but rather to find strategies and products which help them better to control an increasingly full programme of aetfvities~ Computers have played a role not only in keeping track of complex business, financial and personal transactions, but have also facilitated that complenity by making it possible. This trend has affected the clothes market with the demand for O versatile informal clothes appropriate for work and leisure. /Continued, ,, Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: 0111 The car, has become an indispensable tool of fledbility in modern life, giving freedom to make quick decisions, to change plans and to react to problems, we see what the Americans call a time shift, People are increasingly placing a premium on their time and seek greater control over how it is used, Mote importantly this time shift reflects a new determination among consumers to tailor their daily schedules to their needs, rather than having schedules imposed upon them, The demand for flexibility in opening hours is only one aspect of this, Allied to the acceptance of complexity and uncertainty is informality and flexibility, People are much moro likely to accept behaviour that a mote formal group would reject e,g~ unpunctuality or untidiness in dsess~ This informality has had a major impact on the food industry with the breakdown of the formal meal structure, Mate people an taking snacks, or skipping some meals altogether, it can be seen In the growth of the fast road industry, Eating in cars or in the street is much more widely accepted in the 1990's, This trend to informality and flexibility in dress and behaviour will continue to be a major factor: in European countries, There is no indication yat of any swing to more formal patterns of behaviour, Coming to terms with Technology and the Environment In the 19500 and early 1960s tech~ology was seen as the key to future progress, it would free man from the demand for arduous physical work and boring repetitive tasks and bring a whole range of consumer goads within the purchasing power of most of the population, People were fascinated with the romance of teduloldgy, with the Incredible range of things which could be P achieved through technological progress, That was the era of the O gadget, where a product was judged on how technically advanced it was, rather than on its function, j` CIJ IContSnned,,, Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill In the late 1960s and early 1970s a reaction set in with people rejecting what they saw as an Impersonal, technologically driven world in favour of a back to nature movement and of a simpler lifestyle which it was believed was enjoyed in earlier pre- technology generations, In its most extreme form, this led to the hippie communes but it was also responsible for the success of products made from natural ingredients such as shampoo with lanolin from sheep's wool. It was also the period when people reacted against plastic · the time of the scrubbed pine country kitchens, In the late 19809 we saw the development and maturing of so very important and conflicting trends in European attitudes to technology, On the one hand there is an increasing acceptance of products, which although not naturally based, perform functions which cannot be done by their natural counterparts. Products are judged not so much on their composition, but rather on their usefulness, This is associated with a demand for 'user friendly' products which not only fulfil useful functions, but are easy to use. The user is less interested in the microchip that performs the function and more interested in what the product can actually do, how easy it is to operate. This can already be seen vary clearly in the consumes resistance to complicated instructions, procedures and computer programs. Two of the key limiting factors on the use of home computers at present is the need to show clear consumer benefits and the demand for user friendly software, The decreasing attraction of complicated hf·ff decks is another example of this trend, with compact discs a typical example of a user friendly product which offers a clear product benefit, 35mm cameras an another example where a pmduet is haeoming incrsadngly technically c~plicated to achieve simplicity of operation, %a The other related but conflicting trend is an increasing concern with the side effects of technology, People's concerns about IConti"uad.., ~gU Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill __ · environmental issues are Increasing, The greenhouse effect, the pollution, the atone layer, acid rain, Although the level of this concern differs widely from country to country, with the highest level being recorded in Sweden and in Germany, it is now an increasingly influential factor in all European attitudes, This concern is strongest among the younger, better educated, more on trend part of the papul:tion and is expected to grow in the 1990s, As an example, the concern with the ozone layer has already influenced the level of usage of aerosols with a significant group of consumers in Northern Europe switching to alternatives such as a toll-on in the deodorant category. It will increasingly effect all major industries and has Rot only impacted the motor industry, but: also the chemical, pharmaceutical and 611 Industries. The implications of this environment trend will be wide reaching for all major industries with growing media and political pressure to be expected from an articulate, committed group. it is a constraint which has to be taken into account in aspects of new product development. An indication of its importance in the motor industry is shown in the results of our German ear study. In that study, from a list of factors listed by the consumer for importance in a car design, 'tespect for the enviroa~nt' was the third most quoted factor, In looking at this environmental trend, it is important: not to regard it only from the negative side, as a constraint: but also positively as a commercial opportunity, We have already seen some Instances of the consumer being prepared to pay a premium for natural products, Look at the success of The Body Shop in Britain, selling products based only on natural ingredients, or the growth of a higher priced natural commodity such as free range eggs, For the pharmaceutical industry, concern with side effects is increasingly a major constraint an new product dsvelapmont, bur O at the same time there are growing sales of natural homeopathic O medicines across Europe. /Conrinued.~~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill European consumers are becoming increasingly sophisticated and discriminating in their attitude to technology - on the one hand expecting more from it in consumer benefits, and at the same time less prepared to accept potential negatives to their health or to the environment, well ~leing One of the major value shifts that we have detected in all of the European countries relates to our attitudes towards fitness, Looking back to the 1950s when the mind/body dicbotoloy was still strongly established, and our view of the world was very much the Cartesian view of mind/body, the concept of health was perceived primarily in the negative sense, it was the absence of illness, Illness was something you had to cure by the action usually of some third patty or authority figure, such as a doctor, nurse or pharmacist, in order that the person could return to the state of not being ill, The movement of the 1970s particularly in the United States was to treat the body as a machine which needed to he exercised in order to achieve its physical potential, This contributed to mental equilibrium · a healthy mind and a healthy body which in turn led not only to a development of aerobic exercises for strengthening the lungs and heart, hut also to the growth of the nautilus craze with Its emphasis on strengthening individual muselts~ This nautilus craze was not for use in daily life, but in order to improve physical appearance and to give a sense of physical, power, Tn this phase of the changing social attitudes, the action was of the physical influencing the raental, eronoting the feeling of positive health through making the bndy a mare etfident, lo ·powerful machine, IContinued, ~. Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill We now see the movement to selt knowledge, personal responsibility, enjoying one's body, using all of one's senses, preferably all at the same time (polysensuality) end a movement towards increased vitality and exploring mental frontiers~ One of the mast important: social trends in Europe is this last trend, a growing awareness that we usa only a small proportion of our brain cells, People at the forefront of social trends in Europe are more aware of positive vitality, energy and drive in achieving fulfilment in life.,~. The idea that vitality for an individual has a given quantum which can be increased, husbanded, and effectively used, is an important social trend. And so we find now a growing holistic approach throughout increasing members of out population, The holistic approach is the recognition of Falationship~betwaen the body, the emotions, the mind and the environment, a greater recognition of these three as an interactive, mutually dependent holistic system. people are increasingly aware of the need to regulate these three in order to achieve harmony which will release individual potential, This is no longer a fringe or hippy idea, it characterises the most 'on trend' population in Europe, The relationship between the mind, body and environment as a mutually interactive system which the individual must try and maintain harmoniously, i do net: believe we can evert understand the "Coneern About the Environment" social trend, without understanding the changes that are taking piece in our attitudes to our mind and our body, More of us acknowledge the aco system; what we eat affects the environment and land usa: what we do to our environment affects how we function, both physically and mentally, There are genuine trade offs and the whole area is very complex, Open citizenship O AISe the International Research Institute on Social Change Irl .IContfnued,,. Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill _ __ _·· carries out annual sways in 12 European countries, It has partners in Nonh America, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa and Japan. Typically 2,000 interviews among a random sample of 15~ adults are interviewed in each country. We have absented since 19BO a pattern of social values which is snared to a greater or lesser extent by consumers in Europe and it is this convergence of attitudes which has made possible the success of several multi national brands, Coca Cdla perhaps being the best known, The i understanding of the economic Europeanisation is growing in Britain but much more slowly than the rest of Europe, Italy and France are well ahead on this trend which incorporates the appreciation of the value of other nations, People who are on trend answer positively to statements such as: There will be a President of Europe elected by universal suffrage, There will be no customs barriers between countries, People no longer feel that they are a citizen of one country, often a citizen of Europe or the world, It is a new trend which encompasses the feeling of proximity towards people living in other European countries and the need for openness and participation towards the outside world, People who are most 'on trend' develop multiple belongings, They have the feeling of being able to belong to their own country and at the same time, to the world wide space of modernity, and all of its various facets,;- Pop music, ethnic foods, films, arts etc, People can feel closer to people In other countries who snare the same interests or tastes, than to fellow countrymen who do not. The need for economic efficiency reinforces the consciousness that one's country cannot develop without the outside wadd, So open p citizenship is a key trend, it is ~gh among people who feel at S1 ease in the new sacial fabric, who sri pragmatic. ICdntinued, ,, .- -- ,· Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill Closely allied to this trend, we are seeing the growth of empathy, a desire for a new type of egalitarianism and collectivism, and a new desire for intervention. On the one hand the new right talk about the need for society to be more charitable and the need to reassess citizenship. There is the fear in the radial right wing as well as other parties throughout Europe that the period of selfism, a period when people were largely concerned with their own satisfactions must give way to a concern about those In need. This is a phenomenon which is beginning to grow in Europe as well as in the United States. The years of automatic rejection of government initiatives, or government legislation seen to be nearing the end of their days. On the environmental front this is already becoming clear. To argue that dependence on the state is wrong, but that dependence on private charity is right is felt to be both illogical and fallacious, Undoubtedly social values move in the direction of people wanting increased choice and it is quite rightly argued that one of the strengths of the market place is that it allows people to exercise choice. it has become clear to many of us that it is possible to express choice in many areas of social policy, we increasingly reject that we must be told what we shouldhave, increasingly, however, the market economy and the choice it allows is only of value to those with money, what has happened in recent Hears is that large numbers of people have been reduced to dependency. There is nov 8 growing number of people who believe that, while they should have a high degree of social choice, there are also many decisions and actions which can he taken in their names by the government. Jacques Delors, President of EC and Social Contract are reflections of these changes in value, It is really quite fascinating how the Economist, quality newspapers, the New Statesman in this country are turning their minds to the subject of citizenship~ Throughout tbs spectrum right to left, there is a growing ·O awareness that the State should be made more efficient via I O competition, individual responsibilit~i, plus collective efficiency is 'a better model for the next 20 yeats, than the IContinued,,, I~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill hope that good citizens will rebuild caring communities'. There is still enough altruism around to make an assault on the Principle of inheritance popular, even if its beneficiaries are groviq a be a majority. Our surveys shaw that there is a strong majority among all sectors who would be prepared to pay mere in tax to alleviate poverty. In oz work among these people who are most on trend we find a desire for greater equality. It is based on several social trends including empathy and a rejection of strict paver hierarchies , A democratic idea of citizenship must find a way of constructing the public and the private which does not relegate all differences, diversity and plurality to the private. Denu~gzaphie policies have to make room for difference. The aim will be to shift the meaning of welfare benefits from the domain of assistance to the one~of rights of citizenship. Thus establishing that as dtizons we do have not only political rights, but also economic and social rights. It will be clear to you nov that the trends at the top of the chart are the dynamic trends, the ones which are going to Operate increasingly in the 1990s, The ones at the very bottom of the screen are the elder, 1940s and 19508 trends and those in the middle are two of the protest trends of the 1960s and 19700. This is a correspondence map, Each pear, surveys are carried out b; the International Research Institute on Saeial Change, throughout the whole of Europe, North and South America and Japan. And each trend you see on the slide is formed from a minimum of four questions which form a 'factor', The scores atross the questions which make each statistical factor are O summed for each individual in the sample. Each person is either O at the extreme. What we call on·trend is the positive end of the Ik factor, dr in the middle, or at the back of each factor. Each L~ IContinued. ,, Q\ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill year we measure the proportion of people who are on-trehd, This is an empirical way of tracking social change, we are measuring the most important changes in people's attitudes, concerns, needs, wishes, anxieties, their values over time, Within RISC we have developed identical ways of measuring these changes analysing them and interpreting them for corporations, But why are the trends positioned as they are? This is a map, like a geographical map, and what we are showing is the correspondence between the various trends, People who espouse similar values tend to be closer together on the map, Ior example the degree of correspondence betueen Emotional Experience and Pleasure is strong and positive. People who are high on Pleasure tend to be high on Emotional Experience, There is a mobility In our populations and over time more people espouse the trends in the Northern part of the map, There are increasing numbers of people in all of our countries moving from South into the Northern part or the map, So let us look now at the two dimensions which form the basis for establishing the correspondence between various trends, The dimension North/South accounts for a very high proportion of variance between people in our samples, This dimension represents the traditional in the South the older values of security and status, and in the North we see the newer values and some of the more important movements over the last few years,,,,. The movement to personal drives and motives, away from the traditional values of conformity, i am going to spend a little time on the EastlWest dimension. To the left Is roots, and to the right, flexibility, the movement towards networking, away from hierarchies. Thenetwork of Wider social contacts In the past a person's social contact was largely determined by O his family links and his school and work environment, These links which had been developed over a long period of time were Crl IContinued~.~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill normally restricted to people who he had met regularly within his noaal social background, that is his roots, In the 1960s and 19709, we observed a trend to increased social contact, based on one's personal interests, with the growth of the 'small is beautiful' movement, people became increasingly involved in local government and local 'special interest' societies. Like the earlier links with family, school and work friends, these were based on establishing a long term closer relationship with a group of people. In the 1980s we saw the development of a new form of social contact, particularly among the younger generation, which we describe as networking, People high an this trend belong to a much wider group of social contacts, which is regularly changing, People join a wide range of groups in order to meet their special interests , or needs, It is not expected that their membership of the group will necessarily be long ten, although they may have a very close relationship with its members while they remain part of the network, These groups do not necessarily have to be on a face to face contact, as we can see from the growing popularity of telephone and computer link ups between otherwise unknown groups of people. As this bend develops in the 1990s, it is expected that people will get information from a much wider range of personal contacts than they have done in the past, Increasingly they will consult persons whose opinions they respect: on specific subjects although this will apply only to areas of competence where they are judged to have particular knowledge or ability, Since people draw on a wider range of personal experience in contact with others, they are likely to become more knowledgeable, Belonging to a number of specialist groups, consumers can be expected to become smarter, more sophisticated shoppers for most important consumers items. They are likely to spend more widely on products which cater to a wide fb range of personal interests or help to make contact with a wide circle of friends easier, The growth of a very wide range of special interest magazines ten the bookstalls in the 1980s) is /Continued,,. Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill an example of this trend. We are already seeing in France the use of computer telephone bookings with the Minltel system being used to develop an ever widening group of contacts with people sharing similar interests. We can expect to see a rapid growth of this trend in the next 20 years, with the growing up of the first computer literate generation. Those who receive the message above the line are personally unknown to the advertisers - below the line includes public relations, sponsorship, direct mail, direct selling and they will all gain by comparison to mass branded advertising, Fart of this is due to networking, and word of mouth, people with a wider and wider number of Contacts, but there are other reasons as well. The need to base one's image on prestige and size has lessened considerably. Fewer people are likely to identify with slogans which suggest '3argest', or 'most modem'. The large mulfi- nationals are increasingly aware of the lessening need to have a homogeneous image where values were homogeneous and relatively stable. A heterogeneous personality is now allowed. it is not only possible, but desirable to aim different messages to different target groups as long as they still fit the culture of a corporation. What is now required in place of an image policy is one based on personality and integration. whereas the whole concept of image is exclusive and simple, the Concept of personality is diverse, complex, multi·facetted, changing, dependent on context. The manufacturer should first select those aspects of its personality which it feels are most appropriate and capable of helping its integration in different environments, and the emotional linkage consumers have with his brand. The concept of personality fits very well with the new fragmented media scene, but does not fiF all that well 13~th the older concept of added I ~ value through homogeneous above the line image advertising. IC6ntinued,,. ~ - · . '*.~7-·*.~. ~)I~P*Y· -~IKI*~~~mC~CL·. ~E~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill _ _~_____~ · Achievement and risk taki_ng There is a clear trend for those people in more Interesting and demanding jobs to be working longer and longer hours compared with people in less interesting positions. Among this group the distinction between work and leisure time is becoming increasingly blurred, with the consequence that more is done outside the factory or office, in the home, or in the carl and correspondingly there is an increased tolerance for long hours and commitment to work goals, There is a growing body of people in Europe who are stfo~ly committed to achieving success. Although they have some things in common with the aspiring group in the r950'E who wanted to achieve the status Symbols which they believed would give then social recognition, the achievement orientation of the 1980s is much more pragmatic, and hard nosed. This group is far mote concerned with achieving success in terms of personal satisfaction and enjoyment and much lass with achieving recognition from others. Many of these people are prepared to take significant risks to get: what they want out of life. For those with the strong need for achievement, smart shopping is an imperative in order to achieve the best use of their available resources, and to demonstrate their ability to be a winner, There is a tendency to identify with a major product purchase so that if the product lets them dawn, they feel that they have not made a smart decision, and react correspondingly strongly against the product or brand, As a result·of this, the expectations for product performance and reliability for any important purchase are rising all the ti~e~ The products with a reputation for performance and reliability are increasingly attractive, even if at a premium price, as long as the price can be seen as justified in relation to the extra r, perceived quality, This has resulted in a general trading up among large sections of the European population. R smart buy I;r; /Continued,,, Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill _· _ does not always mean Gucci or cartier. Look at the switch away from expensive personal accessories such as watches and cigarette lighten in the direction of functional and efficient alternatives. Manufacturers are going tobe faced increasingly with the need to demonstrate to consumers that their products represent a smart buy. With the long term erosion of automatic brand loyalty, this is likely to mean that direct personal experience and word of mouth recommendation will play an increasingly important part in buying decisions. Cteater self knowledge and control People want to control their lives, they want greater choice. Clearing banks offering interest an current accounts is one response to people wanting to borrow, save, barrow and to move from one mode to another. They want more control over their finances. People want greeter transparency in communication, Because they are better educated, because they are more aware of themselves, their needs and their rights, they can see through messages which are not congruent. Back to politicians. if a politician is seen to make a non congruent switch to say the environmental concerns when previous messages have been in conflict with this save, then the electorate will sense it. They wane to enjoy and consume messages. So instead of talking about its brand or products, a company in the future may have to behave in such a way that its personality emerges through its gestures, symbols and signs, all its communications. But having greater control and self knowledge does not mean that P the consumer can visuallse the new productslservices he will O want. 10 IContinued,,~ 03 Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill - - --I~ Strategic o,Pportunia The marketeer of the 1990s must be a strategic opportunist, He will go beyond satisfying consumer needs, at: a profit, He will anticipate, Merely satisfying consumer needs is passive, At its best it is the pursuit of marketing without power. 'The purpose of marketing now is to anticipate, persuade and influence', John Scully of Pepsi Cola is an expert on leverage marketing, He argues that whole levels of executives have to be put aside in order to speed up to process of getting the best from R c 0 to the market, For the market researcher, there is just not enough time to do the formal screening and analysis which was done in the 19608 and 1970s. A company must be prepared to take risks, and push their new products, As the Japanses have already recognised, it is important to infer from consumer values and lifestyles, then produce the new products to fit those values, and follow up with research to establish how to improve or fine tune, Paradoxically, strategic opportunism, suggests both a more flexible, often speedier response at the same time as involving longer tew thinking, There is a conflict between City short termism, and developing longer term vision, In an article about Sir Paul Cirolami recently described as a strategic thinker and excellent manager, he is nevertheless criticised for preferring to run his business without the shareholders, (I: am reminded of Professor Charles Handy's inaugural lecture to the RSA in October 1988 which encouraged us to bring back the family owned/family managed business, to get away from short tew distant 6vnership), "There is I fear, a danger that business will lose its credibility if it increasingly becomes the token of big time gamblers", Giralami maintains that to do a marketing job prapetly, "you f ~ have to be free to use you imagination, You have to use any E ~ device open ~a Irau". Ii pu ask people Phat they want they will e ~ IContinued.~~ C c~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill say more of the same, You need new market research methods, If you want to cheek the effectiveness of your advertising, do nor do it by asking people what they remember, The time is ripe to involve social anthropologists and semfologists in the development assessment of communication, Five semiologists in a room can look at an ad and can assess how it will be communicated to a particular target audience with particular needs and wants, In the future the sophistiCated use of social sciences could be both quicker and cheaper than doing a research survey, Fxploring_ Mental Frontiers Thus is the growing feeling that we do not know enough about how we think, feel and behave and that the conventional, rational approach is not adequate in today's world, This means that increasing reliance on emotion and intuition in making decisions with gut feel, is accepted in its own way as just as valid as the rational and logical analysis of a problem, There Is a wonderful distinction to be made between error, exception and spotting change, Unfortunately marketeers and market researchers are trained to be analytical, they are trained to lock eor errors and exceptions but nattd spot change, I have a mental vision of all those marketing brand and product: managers with vDU's on their desk, Tarry Hardy of Glare said that when seeing a sudden shift in consumption in continuous data the marketing man's first reaction is to say "it's wrong", it might be wrong but he is often inclined to accept a second source of data which shows no such shift as correct, Errors or exceptions are easily spotted, Genuine change is not, We need to gain expertise in spotting change, Innovation is a B living thing, not a purely mechanical phenomenon, It develops at: that point where there are synergies between technological and N social trends, bur analytical mott~ods in markatfng do not lend /Ccntinued,., Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill themselves to seeing all of these Interactions as a whole, Innovation will take toot if its form is such that it will allow it to find the appropriate niche in the changing system, This cbuld he from previous research breakthroughs, which must find themselves to the market place ~u~ckly, or innovation could come from spotting change in consumers needs which allow the breakthrough to be exploited. Some people seem to be able to see change, but we need to know mote how to train people to spot change and we need to know more about what breeds innovation, New Trends I come now to sue of the mast recent trends which we are just beginning to track throughout Europe, These are not on the map, These newer trends are primarily concerned with the Individuals relationship Ed society and are closely related with the Egalitarianism and the open Citizenship and Global interdependence which I have already commented an, There is a strong correlation between these trends and a person's level of education, There is a new sense of social responsibility which is about giving all members of society an opportunity to play an active role rather than just with the redistribution of wealth, This means that there is a growing demand for people in the Grey Age · the ages 50s75, to want to continue to make a contribution, Social responsibility and social fairness has little to do with economic equality but to do with.social commitment and personal responsibility and these trends look forward to a new sense of belonging and social responsibility which is puit:e different from the seen in earlier generations where the individual was much more strongly restricted to his local environment, In the context of the 90's a strong feeling of local identity and commitment is perfectly compatible with the holistic view of eco·Systenism, In addition there are two other trends, the search for meaning and spirituality, These are more directly linked to the growing ly need for a sat of values which give a deeper meaning to life, W /Contfnued.., CO Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill Thess trends which we have measured at a higher level in the United States during recent surveys, appear to be of growing importance in Europe and are associated with a search for a mere holistic view of man's place in his EnviroFment. let me say immediately that this growth of spirituality is not related to the growth of fundamentalism, fundamentalism of course being very closely allied to security in the more southern part of the map, But what then is growing in the northern part of the map is an' increasing need for values that transcend a rational materialistic attitude to lifeand it transcends the more strongly individual, centred view of the self in the BOs, in the 90' we are already starting to see some zeappraisal of the relationship to established religion and on a wider geographical basis in Europe a search of external values which transcend social commitment, A~though brand image, product quality and price are still key elements in the success of consumer goods and services these are being redefined by the consumer In ways which take account of his changing perception of the World, if the carefully established brand image of a product is compared to the front door, with its brightly polished knocker it is as if this front door is increasingly becoming transparent, turning into a window through which the consumer looks through the brand image into the activities of the corporation in the living room behind, because of the values, ethical values which ate underlying this trend, it makes it Increasingly important for Senior Management to praise their corporate philosophy and practices in the light of the ch~nging·valuas of society, We can establish on the correspondence map where the centre of each population lies, Some European countries are moving from the South to the North/West of the map, Others are moving from the South to the North East of the map. On this slids we can see P a simplified version, with the posiribning or various countries in Europe on the same map, Quite simply, more people in France, Norway, Italy and Spain are in the Northern part of the map and W /Continued,,, CO rrnmm~arrramr r Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill _ therefore the centre of their population is found in the North of the map, The OK, Germany, Sweden and Holland have many more people in the Southern part of the map and therefore the centre of their population is in the South of the map. The [fK has changed its position significantly over the last five Years. Whereas it used to be at the very Seur~ern tip, it has moved towards the eentre more quickly than Germany and Sweden. There is still a profound scepticism among British managers about the pattern of social values which is shared to a greater or lesser extent by consumers in the European community, Yet is the existence of the communality of social values which has made possible the success of such widely different multi-national brands as Coea Cola, Walkman, Marlboro. This leads to the cemplex issue of global branding. While some companies have established uniform brands which commend instant recognition world Wide, other companies attempting to use the concept of globalisatlon find that a global marker; divides into many sub markets. Vnderstanding social cultural trends and their evolution explains why this is. Take the example of pasta. In every European country outside Italy, people who eat pasta frequently tend to be at the forefront of social trends, but people in Italy who eat a lot of pasta are backyard on the trends. Therefore, a successful marketing policy for Pasta in Italy would have to be very different from that in other countries~ The same is true of ears. Take Scandinavians, where those who own a volvo or Saab tend to be behind an social trends, but outside Scandinavia those who own Volvos and Saabs tend to be in the forefront of social trends. This strange phenomenon means that a manufacturer can sometimes use a global strategy Outside the originating country. Think of the older Italian peasant in the South of italy who is at the back of social trends and compare what you feel about his attitudes and values with a ! P coal miner or shipyard worker in Trance or Genaany. You immediately appreciate that there is a very wide difference of attitudes in those people. But if you think of your colleagues I IrJ~ lContinued, i O: 10\ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill in europe who ate engaged in business or professional bodies, or even the similarity of attitudes of students throughout Europe · the way they feel, the way they behave - then you have sensed the attitude shift among people at the forefront of social trends. And at the forefront in the Northern part of our map we see the converging of trends. Therefore managers in Britain are similar in values to those in Spain, Italy, france and Norway. He must: recognise the developing, the dynamic trends:- pleasure, complexity, ne~tworking, open citizenship, a greater self knowledge and control, strategic opportunism, and exploring new mental frontiers, The marketeer must take advantage of the trends and apply his knowledge of the direction society is taking, Professor Jacpues Derras, Poet, Writer and r989 Reith Lecturer on the BBC and French Polymath bad this to say about the British, "I cannot think of a country that has been more consistently bent upon differing from others than your country, but I am now wondering whether by having traded those symbols around so heavily in the past decades you might not have turned them into cliches, whether Britain might not be in danger of parodying itself, I am wondering whether the trade of differing, (dissenting if you prefer), that you have carried on in so many brilliant varied ways ever since the r6th Century whether at home or abroad as a Nation or a Community of individuals has not become slightly redundant, I suspect our main task today consists less in being or feeling different than in being and feeling alike, He went on to say that "we have reached a crucial stage in the development of our cultures that demands us to be very careful not to mistake what is happening around us for the simple vindication of what we have believed for so long', Although he has sympathy with the emerginp Nations. Oarras feels ; P mote attracted to man as an individual, In the past Europeans O have been incapable of converging without shedding blood or lu spilling saut, I am not at all sure that a Nation is the best /Continued,,, C~ - --~---~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: Dill emb~em mankind can work upon or top with in centuries to come. Since European nation states have torn each other apart for i000 years perhaps it is in Europe we shall see the emergence of a new nation state based not on history or ethnicity nor language but on values. IContlnuad.., CD - ------ ~~~-· c~ Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: 0111