ImperiaiTobacco LimitedllimitC ~· :~:" \I .. September 26, 1984 ~·.~, Mr. Rob Ferris British American Tobacco Co. Ltd~ Group Research and Development Ceotre Regent's Park Road Southaaton, ENGLAND S09 1PE Dear Rob: I've just read the summary of the structured creativity conference and one more time, the concept has lefr;ne with a combination of peaked interest and a horrible sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. We exoerimented with a Delphi forecasting technique on new brands a few years back. ThiJ was the ultimate marriage ai mar~eratical disci- pline and intuition, providing something for everyone, unfortunately, by taking the worst of both worlds. In our case, I can assure you that any similarity between the forecast and the actual result were purely coincidental, My reaction to this process is much the same, Structured creativity assumed that the combined effort of, what I flatter myself were good marketing minds, both in developing and assessing new product leads, bore any resemblance to what can reasonably be expected to sell. This assumption needs to be questioned. The statistics in north America are that, from good, knowledgeable corporate minds, 235 ideas will be required to produce five that make it through the development process without being aborted; and of these five, - millions of dollars later - one will succeed. These numbers contain two very interesting observations, First there is no shortage of ideas. Second, we, as individuals or collections of individuals, are nor very good a; assessing them. N 0\ \O Clit; PD F·--!::!i::!i::!·.·f·;i stlc.;: nill page Z Mr. Rob Ferris September 26,:984 Structured creativity, think, embodies both of these flaws at least as a means of developing and prioritizing new development projects - it assumes that because the ideas are in the room, they are actually worth considering · and more to the point, it assumes that the jodg· ments of intelligent sellers has anything to do with the likely response of buyea~ From a professional point of view, I am embarrassed to admit that the judgement of marketers is just not that good · and (lesr anyone question our credentials) we have the track record to prove it, Consequently, althoughthe technique is intriguing, I strongly suspect that the value of its output, as logical as it seems, is fatally Elawed~ The fault lies with your sample~ As I suggested at the conference, I firmly believe that the only sound basis for new development is consumer need. Asking people who are going to lay down hard-earned money on a brand/product what they want is the only logical means of proceeding with the exercise, The big question is how to do tWs~ I don't think that there is any one answer - in some market contexts, switching movements are a good long distance means of doing this - ownlideal brand perceptions - lexterior" data and/or some combination of the above are probably the standard toals~ Structured creativity, to me, is intriguing as a new tool in this battery of approaches~ I wonder if it would be possible to take the exact format which you used with I longitudinal series of gualitative interviews among smokers as a means of gaining added insight into specific concerns: - discuss overall perceptions, behaviors, shortfalls, positives, etc. vis-a-vis smoking and their own brand; - develop hypothetical modifications; - provide constructs relevance and priority; - J~mnarize, I realize the actual application of the process would have to be modified, but the process itself would remain essentially intact. ... 13 Clil;PD~- !::!!::!~.f3stlc.;:nlil Page 3 Mr, Rob Ferris September 26, 1984 in the context of the type of development work expected from Wayne and myself Where we have to assume that the more esoteric opportunities cannot be explored by existing techniques because no an-market examples exist for smokers to point to either behaviorally or perceptually, I am fascinated by the possibility that 'structured creativity" might prove to be a powerful weapon. i would appreciate your thoughts on whether this is feasible and if so, how the approach could be modified for this application. Perhaps we can discuss it in your brief visit in October, Sincerely, Robert Bexon Manager New Market Development RE/no Enclosure cc: W. Knox PS: I've enclosed a tew packs of Matinee Slims for you to try. The initial reaction to the launch appears quite positive, O [L) Clit; PB'F~)r7:f;l StlC~i: nill BalnsH Amtat~H ~IACCO CIIPql~l·I ~atMll~a:I5 Org~l~ol: Dcpt o~Jlllca- Ig~l Hc~~~, CLlldl i Wlq~enaaQ iP.s'~ ~qlllt DltC: I.HHCUI~IClllnYllnl~e~~HlnrYHI~IHeHYnYlr1111 Pfe Nlmbrr: 4L!n---.~ C3~ nl·PeT; C~U(IX~~*e~C~IIHn* Pile ~lp: Pint Ptb I~lt Pip 11612 1 619141619131· 14~-t~l~lP CIP K lol I II I· I-4+i~iall 4151014 $ I· I -H~ I Qils16161~ I II~I I I I I Irl II ~IZ I' I II 11511S I I ~~h18181111 nr,~ s: phl h~b.l~d-.~g--------. Ddb bck dl be fi8cd i bl Dpos~ StdOg II ~P~ Dc~PI ~~5-L?Y~~ L IIIHII~IC(nll~l)nlllIIIIYIIII~II 19~AY lls ric3LMh- DlfC: Ill~n~llllnlY*IHCnlUI~lnll~Hel I osc~u~____u,~ k------. n~~·nnt~ Dtfl: Y·YHl~lrlll(H~I~YlnnInCIIIYIYTilt: ~n~~*HI*ln~~l*(W) D~kyD~e Cb~c~cd Bg: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,~~IU· DtfC: ~I~~HIII~Y~~Hlnll QCPt BTtU rr- ~~Hrul H ~~ ~~ nr~~ r ~rn lul Dlf Ctn ul I ~llr~ I u-ur· nr r · ClibPDF - v~~fastio.soni ~mperial Tobacco limiled&imil~e P.13 i'll·n::·Su!:.:' August 22, 1985 Rict~d W, C;osby 'I"ne Creative Research Cra~Jp ~td, 1~8 Eglinton Avenue East Suite 701 Toronto, Ontario M4P 2XI Gear Diclr: Demxaey is a trying thing, In the interest of time, Rob called his initial conrents in by phone - so the niarks on the att~e~d questionnaire, as well as the following points, reflec~ his concerns as faithfull~ as possible. ~bst of the paints an th aues:ionnaire are straightforward but there is a little elaboration required on sere. i, C~en-~nded ~estians Rob feels 'u~t there are too rrany. His concerns are in a n~anber of areas - not petting a representative range of zesoonses (i,e, more don't ~FrlS t~an reflect t~u! true Mture of the droblem) - prob!ws with laterpretative c~ing - and in xme cases ('see Q. 6al, ~ fact that they are just unnecessary, B suggests that ue rwiew all the open-ended ~esponses in the context of the qualitative in order to develop pre-ceded respcn~s~s and then leave room after ttylse far f~trt~u~ apen~nded input, kltbou~ I have not noted all the questions, t~s represented a generic carmant c~ the st~ct~ae of t~u~ quesiionwire, 2, SrokeL~INon-Sm3kerlQIu'~.ter Personalities Rob ~s submitted a report (I've taken a copy from our research Li- ~ary) that gives a list of attributes that MY be relevant at a. 5, neverlinfreq3ent and Q. 37, ,,, 12 Clit; PDF -!::!!::!!::!.f3 StlC.i: 0111 )g Z gc~d r. C-ssa ~J~s; 22, 1985 3~ ~~~~ Scales ~ bat t~t 16PP in fact ~t~ data that defines intrwwsion and euL·6versbn, 'I"nerefore, the inclusion of EPI is redundant, B feels those batt~~ rray create respondent fatigue and prejudiee ~ ~er data i' ~ a ~lcded at this p~ in :he ~tionnaire, Tfi~cfac, we miaht eonsider outting tfi~n at the end of ~ study or L~ ~ a a ptd retun. ~ are ~*at~ a ~~d to aitioal Mar~t~o~ 4. ~m Scenarios I verr ~t~~t~G suggestion t~ 3anc~t in the st~ we should ~~ a b~tea of a~ ~ ~bcs ~ ~ ~~ farecasts n t,4c M~ d ~ ~~o ~~~ For cu~b - in t~, ten, ~~ years: a) incidence; b) ~s of ~~~s; C) d) social press\lre; a) ~P~l~~n f) et~. I think this is very worthwhile and I'd be interested in your thinlring on w~t tJe should inolude. Hcj about 'they will find a cure for These, along with the notn on ~ ~tioMalre, cover the main paints He has Pranised to let us ]a~ow if he canes up with more on deeoer reflection, Almost there! Reoards Robert Bexon Prod;a, ~$~g d Cevelo~lment Elarlret~g aln · cc: W. E. Sanders, B. ~h / O ClibPDF - v~-Tfastio.soni imperial Tobacco limitedllimii~e guly 30, 1986 'T~i~s t·i: b~ mPkolm ZUeaver BA~. Company ~imit~d ~R oac Regents park Road millbroab, Southampton SOP 1PC ~n~c~na aear malcolm, C~MI Read has asked me to pass onto you some d the detail, cono~ni~0 the statistical packaOe we used to colllp"e the wbiective assessment op some CIUllldi~M ciparotte~ and the bo~vwu PFd delivery associated with them. Rn overview cl this work was presented at the Smokin~ Re~uiour Conperence a pew weeks aOo. RPter the conpFlncb,~t~m bad a short visit with ms and be thought you mipht be interested in our approach. 9 must apologize to both ol you pw the delay in my response, 9 can orly use the excuse that it 5 diPPicult to retum to the reality, dare 9 lay drudgery o~ o~lico tile, 9 have onclc6ed a lew items that may help you in kobinp at the rum) we iud cMonicat correlation analysis: ~~ st ap the P7~C aseto product attributes ~ listing or the progran J) cigarette codes 4) two OXM110186 qP the analysis output needteds to say, to include the MQ~di~ oP aPt the variable sets compared would result in a packaye too heavy to post! ~o~vcvcr, 9 think what 9 MI sendinp is vgpicionf por you and ~ham to have Llook, Copies d the overheads 9 used in my presentation on this topic we ibdudod in the conponnca proceedinOs which 900 will be receiuing loon, 3hey mqy also be O( some help. Gr~Jla~n, can no doubt, pill you in on the details ol the methodology, ~hers pre a lew cautionary notes, tirst DP all the work is O~Y in its initial stage6. We are IldinO the CRIICORR tschni~o to gius us a broad view d any potential rrlationhip6. Secondly, it is rro~t best suited por a broad range or cipcurttod as opposed to paired comparisons. 3hirdll, as 9 am sure you appreciate, it is important to establih that the holder is not detrimental to the sensory evoPuation, ~raham may haue told you that rue ~ve pourd, as you have, a minimal, ip ant ePlact a~ the holder, I~ inter-trial correlation per with and without holder was o,el in this study. ,.,In C: I i I; P D F - !::!~::!.f3 t;i~l C.i: D ill ,1- Rb I~ouc ~, ~ ~ticular dudy id dill in ih Inili~ 6togaj Md 9 cannot commNIt on UL8 umlidity DP thB nu3linp ntoda until w houd eomplstrd all d Ihs ~nP~~i~, PsrbqoJ you wouM liks to commont on ths mdtl of thid dirdetion. 9t id aportllllPfB Y4U middsd the co4wnco. 91 04 Fom t~r point o( uislu ap sxchonyiny tho~ht6, it wpl v~y i~8r~,tinp, l~i~ may be t~ beginning o( doms ~ inPormationlidsa 8xchong88, 9(9 CM bl Or ony hdp with oy 09 1~Li~, pll~B ICt ms ~Mw, With kind nga~, youn dinclreEy, 4 Y.~I~ - II . '$ C. mc~ido Cm(UM End, Clil;P`~~~i5t~nTii-~---- -