INTRODUCTIO14
THE PROFUCT IN THE EARLY 198ns
2 5 I-Ap 1,176
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In the past twenty years there have been sevetal
forecasts
of the demise of the cigarette. The majority
reflect little
more than a popular, reas oned- argument
forecasting the reaction
of our consumers to the continuous dual pressures
of anti-smoking
publicity and increasing taxation. Forecasts based
upon the
emergence of a rival to the cigarette are rare,
but the use of
marijuana and nicotine-containing chewing-gum, as
discussed
later, have been suggested.
2. In general, the smoker has shown marked
resilience in
resisting these pressures. So much so, that it
raises the
danger of complacency within the cigarette
industry. Equally,
of course, there is a danger of over-reaction to
the forecasts
of gloom and doom.
3. This document considers the main threats to the
smoking
habit, the probable constraints an the type of
product in the
future, and draws attention to the undoubted
opportunities which
exist in the development of future products.
THREATS TO THE SMOKING HABIT
4. Probably the greatest threat lies not in
further evidence
of a direct link between smoking and disease, but
the increasing
tendency to portray smoking as a socially
undesirable habit.
Philip Morris have pointed out that upper-class
smokers are more
successful at quitting than are lower-class
smokers (1) . In the
U.K. , the trend (2) is towards smoking behaviour
becoming a
working-class habit (Table 1).
Table I
Percentages of Smokers of Manufactured
Ciqarettes bV Sex and Social Class
Men Women
Regis,trar General's Social Class 1
1961 1973 1961 1973
1 Professional,etc., occupations 53 39 46 26
11 Intermediate occupations 59 42 44 42
III Skilled occupations 59 so 47 47
IV Partly-skilled occupations 60 56 49 46
V Unskilled occupations 62 63 411 47
V! Unoccupied 40 34 24 26
ALL SOCIAL CLASSES 59 50 43 44
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It will not be easy to combat this threat; Good
Public
Relations activitfes are likely to be more
effective than
bcience-based research. Particularly in the U.S.A.
and Germany,
part of the attack lies in the attention being
focussed on the
side-stream smoke, and exhortations are made to
the non-smoker
to demand his right to breathe clean air. The
Tobacco Research
Council currently has a small working party
considering the
social implications of a sustained and successful
httempt to
portray smoking as socially undesirable. In the
discussions,
attention was drawn to the potential erosion of
the social fabric
which could arise from the polarisation of the
population into
smokers and non-smokers, with each group showing
increasing
intolerance and demanding their "rights".
Taking a long-term view, there is a danger in the
current
trend of lower'and lower cigarette d *eliveries -
i.e. the smoker
will be weaned away from the habit. Sweden has a
25-year plan
to produce a generation of non-smokers. In
countries where
tar and nicotine league-tables exist, a feasible
scenario is
government pressure on the advertising support for
high-delivery
brands, the introduction of legislation to limit
the delivery of
brands to be followed by a step-wise reduction in
the limit.
The reduction in tar deliveries is not of critical
concern and,
providing the pressure on the market is sufficient
to cause an
"across-brands" tar reduction, opportunities are
opened'up in
the market for a low-tar-with-taste cigarette.
Despite evidence
from Germany that smokers will both accept and
stay with a low-
nicotine cigarette, other markets could well have
a different
reaction. Nicotine is an important aspect of
"satisfaction",
and if the nicotine delivery is reduced below a
threshold "satis-
faction" level, then.surely smokers will question
more readily
why they are indulging in an expensive habit.
It is advocated that every opportunity is taken to
separate
tar and nicotine in the minds of consumers and
legislators, and
that we should be aware of the long-term dangers
of following
the crowd into ultra-low nicotine deliveries.
6. Before outlining future constraints and
opportunities for
cigarette design, it remains to consider potential
rivals.
Included in'the rivals are cigarettes in which
nicotine has
been replaced by an alternative pharmacological
agent.
(a) gjq~!Kg_and Pip2
-There is no indication of a major upsurge in the
pppularity of cigars and pipes.
(b) Chewing-t9~~!222,-EBMfl-~'Dq-DicOt ine-
containing_St2,L41ng:_q9Ln
These are potential rivals if cigarette smoking
becomes
socially undesirable. Sweets; or confectioneries
containing
nicotine carry the danger of over-dosage -
nicotine is an
acute poison. The interesting thought remains,
however,
that if a modern, product development team was
charged with
the job of designing an oral method of
administering a
five-minute dose of nicotine, it is unlikely that
they wou Id
come up with a saliva-producing cliewing product
which also
carried the problem of disposal of the soggy
residue!
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(c) Modified nicotine
It is theoretically possible to modify the
chemical
structure of nicotine and produce a compound which
retains
the positive attributes of nicotine but has a
minimum of
any adverse side-effects. Opinions vary on the
chances
of success. It is sometimes argued that a low
probability
is attached to the possibility of a compound
producing a
recognisable and attractive physiological response
but
also having a virtual absence of side-effects.
When
considering the mass sale of such a material it is
clear
that an immense amount of biological testing would
be a
necessary pre-requisite. On the other hand, if the
net
is widened to include compounds which are not
based on
nicotine, & technological forecast published in
1971 (3)
predicted that the period 1971-1981 would see the
intro-
duction of new, safe drugs for mood control, crime
reduction
and personality control. A second technological
forecast
in 1974 (4) suggested that drugs will be used in
the late
1990s to ameliorate specific conditions and
control specific
unwanted behaviour.
(d) _51t2rn~~tive_plant_products
"Narcotic Plants" (5) 'lists some eighty species
of
plants containing hallucinogens, stimulants,
inebriants
and hypnotics. Nearly ten years ago,.a French
paper (6)
discussed numerous plants which might replace
tobacco. The
only material which has received a lot oi
attention is
marijuana, and the controversy on whether or not
to legalise
soft drugs has been frequently aired. In the last
two
years the public debate appears to have receded -
one
cynical explanation offered is that the habit has
now extended
to include "the establishment" or upper-classes.
In the
illicit use of marijuana, relatively large doses
of the active
principal are involved. If the use of such drugs
was
legalised, one avenue for exDloitation would be
the augmen-
tation of cigarettes with near sub-liminal levels
of the drug.
It is argued that a distinction exists between
drugs acting
on levels of brain activity (such as nicotine and
some other
stimulants) and drugs acting on the state of
consciousnesa
(such ~s marijuana, LSD and other hallucinogens).
In this
sense, nicotine and marijuana are not direct
comnetitors.
(e) Biofeedback
.As inferred in the above paragraph, smoking
(largely
via nicotine) may assist people to control the
level of
activity in the brain to a desired level. Other
means of
such control represent, therefore, a rival to the
cigarette.
There is an increasing amount of evidence (7, 8)
that
subjects can control their levels of brain.
activity, without
recourse to drugs, if they are' given information
on the
level of brain activity (biofeedback). Currently,
the
equipment required is over-simple or cumbersome,
but last
year the editorial column of the gritish Medical
Journal (9)
drew attention to the potential clinical use of
biofeedback.
\~o
Such techniques might be used by anti-smoking
clinics. 1-0
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We are aware from some unpublished work at St.
Bartholomew's Hospital, London, of indications
that only
occasional practice with a modern biofeedback
machine is
required to enable a subject to exert significant
control
.over his level of brain activity. Summer training
courses
may not be socially unacceptable - the Delphi
forecast
already mentioned (4) suggested "Development of
brain
stimulation: Do-it-yourself pleasure
centres.become a
technical possibility, 1990-2020.". The date might
have
been closer had they been aware of the work at
Bart's.
The class of smoker most susceptible would be
members of
the nicotine-dependent.majority who have a high
concern
for health.
7. Summarising the rivals, however, it is unlikely
that a major,
serious contender to the cigarette will be
established in the
period 1976-1985.
CONSTRAIkS
8. There are moves to extend league-tables to
other smoke
constituents. For several years various
suggestions have been
made that vapour-phase league tables are
"imminent". Hydrogen
cyanide.and alAehydes were frequently mentioned -
largely because
these constituents are effectively removed by
carbon filters
and, presumably, the possibility existed for a
manufacturer or
a carbon-supplier to seek commercial advantage.
More recently,
attention has been drawn to the nitric oxide
content of smoke,
whilst today the most realistic nominee is carbon
monoxide.
It is relatively easy to measure the level of
carbon monoxide
in blood and thereby monitor a direct effect of
smoking on the
human body. Many authors, e.g. Wald (10), link
carbon monoxide
with the 'development of heart disease - which is,
of course, a
major killer in westernised countries. Whilst the
attack is not
to be welcomed, it has the advantage of diluting
the assertion
that nicotine provides the link between smoking
and heart disease.
9 Whilst it is unlikely that we shall see, in the
next ten
years, league-tables directly based upon
biological testing,
severe constraints are likely if the "Hunter
Committee" approach
is extended to other countries. Most attention has
been
focussed upon tobacco substitutes. In the next
decade however,
more serious constraints could arise from the need
to use
'.approved!' flavours and additives. If we are
precluded from
markettesting new flavours until they have
"cleared" even the
first stages of bioassay, then the search for new
flavours
becomes a very expensive prograrLne. it follows
that B-A.T. should
accelerate any market testing in new markets of
distinctive
flavours (i.e. flavours of the clove type), or
perhaps materials
of the ginseng type, before the possibility is
foreclosed.
10. The shortage of agricultural land, as forecast
for example
by the Club of Rome, is unlikely to affect tobacco
production
seriously by 1985. Leaf Department will have
forecasts available
of the potential shortage of any particular grades
or type of
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leaf. A point to note is that there appears to-be
a trend
towards low-nicotine varietles. As is discussed
later, B-A.T.
will need a supply of high-nicotine tobacco, and
steps may be
necessary to reverse this trend. The increase in
labour costs,
the trend towards mechanical harvesting, and new
forms of curing
will lead to a decline in the number of grades.we
currently
enjoy.
Tax harmonisation and allied moves can already
affect the
type of product offered, e.g. U.K. Changes in
disposable
income, vitally important in some markets, are
difficult to
forecast for periods beyond the immediate future,
and other
people within B-A.T. can obviously offer more
sensible comment.
Similarly, no attempt is made to forecast
political trends
which could have a major effect on B-A.T.'s
ability to operate
in some markets. Short-term shortages of
humectants or
plasticisers are always a possibility, although by
1980 the
large fluctuations in prices experienced during
the mid-70s
oil crisis will have been accommodated. Cost
advantages might
see the dominance of acetate filters challenged by
the use of
other materials such as polypropylene - in one
sense a constraint
but, with adequate planning, an opportunity.
OPPORTUNITIES
12. The design of cigarettes will become more
systematised as
progress is made in defining, in technical terms,
the cigarette
we want to produce, and in our ability to make it.
The extension
of league-tables to new smoke constituents
Presents many oppor-
tunities, since it will focus attention on the
levels in smoke.
A current example is the increasing use of porous
papers and
ventilation to control carbon monoxide. It is
possible that
smokers will polarise into "low-nicotine" and
"high-nicotine"
groups, and it is interesting to note a,recent
call (11) for a
low tar -low carbon monoxide- high nicotine
cigarette. The need
to control the level of other vapour phase
materials will lead
to th~ use of more complex filters,and adequate
filter-making
capacity will be required to take advantage of the
opportunities.
13. At the present time, mouse skin-painting
provides the main
basis for much of the biological testing of
condensate. Whilst
filter and cigarette design greatly control the
quantity of
particulate matter from a cigarette, the specific
activity is mainly
influenced by the nature of the "tobacco" which is
burnt. The
next ten years, therefore, will see continued
attempts to develop
new smoking materials, and their incorporation at
increasing
levels in the cigarette. It does not follow,
however, that man-
made materials will erode tobacco usage. Indeed, a
likely pattern
is, because of experience from tobacco-waste
utilisation, tobacco-
based sheet materials will be favoured in some
markets, and these
will be followed by tobacco-based materials
incorporating non-
combustible inorganic fillers. Other markets will
favour the
use of inert diluents or the incorporation of
man-made materials
of demonstrably low biological activity. Whilst,
at present, it
is too early to predict which.type of new smoking
material will
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dominate, a common feature is that the tobacco
portion of the
blend will need to supply the necessary amount of
nicotine and
tobacco flavour to-the smoke.
14. Looking further down the road, the possibility
exists that,
as inhalation tests are developed and accepted,
then filters
might offer a selective means of controlling smoke
toxicity.
Well before that date, however, opportunities
exist for filter
and cigarette designs which offer the image of
"health re-assurance!.
15. The control of both the quality and quantity
of side-stream
smoke remains an important research objective -
i.e. an opportunity
exists for the generation of a "product-plus" for
our cigarettes.
In passing, it is worth noting that in this area
the patented
ARIEL type of product (a "cigarette" which
delivers an aerosol of
nicotine and flavour with near-zero "tar") is in
difficulties with
regard to the quantity of side-stream smoke
produced.
16. Whilst the pressures against the smoking habit
will continue
to grow, undue pessimism would be misplaced.. Many
of the con-
straints offer at the same time marketing
opportunities. The
trend in product design over the next ten years
will be towards
cigarettes with porous or ventilated wrappers,
incorporating
increasing amounts of sheet materials (both
tobacco- and non-
tobacco-based) , and carrying more efficient or
selective filters.
In other words, dramatic changes from the trend of
the past few
years are not indicated.
C=)
C__
C-1 .
1.0
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REFERENCES
1. Ryan, P.J. in "Smoking Behaviour: Motives and
Incentives".
(W.L. Dunn, Ed.). V.H. Winston & Sons,
Washington,. 1973.
2. Todd, G.F. "Changes in Smoking Patterns in t~e
U.K.".
T.R.C. Occasional Paper 1, 1975.
3. Parker, E.F. "Business Economist", 1971, 18.
4. Smith, M. "New Scientist", 1974, 90.
5. Emboden, W..."Narcotic Plants"; Studio Vista,
London, 1972.
6. Cuenot, A. "Les Succ6dan4s du Tabac". Journal
d'Agriculture
Tropicale, 1967, XIV, 191.
7. Karlins, M. and Andrews, L.M. "Biofeedback".
Garnstone
Press, London, 1973.
8. Brown, B.B. "New Mind, New Body". Hodder &
Stoughton,
London, 1974.'
9. Editorial, British Medical Journal, 1974, 427.
10. Wald, N.J. "The Lancet", 1976, 136.
11. Leader in "The Times", January 19,76.
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APPENDIX
In the main section of this note, a fairly broad
brush has
been used and the general nature of the
conclusions reached may be
regarded as inadequate. Indeed, it is difficult to
avoid a feeling
of disappointment that clear and specific changes
in our product
have not been identified. To be more precise,
detailed considera-
tion has to be given to individual markets and our
marketing skills
brought to bear to take advantage of the
opportunities.
With regard to the technical advances that will
have been made
by 1985, it is probable that the following
features will be available:
(a) A new generation of cigarette papers with a
very high porosity -
these will be made available largely to control
the delivery.of
carbon monoxide.
(b) Filters with a higher particulate efficiency
but acceptable
draw resistance- these will be developed to meet
the pressure
from tar league tables. A trend towaras long*er
cigarettes
will allow an in:--rease in filter length (30mm
will be common)
which in turn will allow greater use of embossed
or recessed
ends, cross-flow and ventilated filter designs.
(c) Filters made from cheaper raw materials than
cellulose acetate.
(d) The desire to provide "health reassurance"
coupled with the need
to control the vapour phase of cigarette smoke
will lead to an
increase in the use of granular absorbents in
filters, e.g.
modified carbons, ion-exchange resins, meerschaum,
sepiolite and
perhaps silica gel.
(e) Sufficient non-tobacco sheet materials will be
available for
incorporation at a level of 25-35% in brands which
have captured
10% of sophisticated markets. Since the use of
tobacco-based
sheet materials will also have increased, the
pressure will have
led to advances in flavour technology. The recent
claims made
for the brand Merit are a pointer in this
direction.
In several markets, figures are available for the
tar and
nicotine deliveries from cigarettes during the
past ten years, and
trend analysis allows some indication of the
future. For example,
it was recently pointed out in The Lancet (12)
that, in the U.K., the
average tar delivery is decreasing:
July 1972 21 mg
June 1975 19 mg
The "banding" in league-tables forces
manufacturers to achieve
delivery figures within a series of steps. By
1985, therefore, the
popular cigarettes will probably be in the
"low-middle" band - i.e.
11-16 mg. The longer cigarettes in the U.K.
market, which folloes
from the change in taxation, will retard a general
move into the "lo,.*'L-
band - i.e. 10mg or less. The rebruary issues of
The Lancet
illustrate the semi-public debate taking place in
the U.K. Russell
(13) has suggested that it "seems to be urgent to
publish CO yields
along with tar and nicotine". 011
\-O
1-0
CO
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Recently (14), of course, a CO league table has
appeared in
Switzerland. Peto (15), at the D.H.S.S. Cancer
Epidemiology and
and Clinical Trials Unit, has forecast the effect
of a series of
price increases on cigarette consumption in the
U.K. Based upon
his earlier analysis (16) of price changes since
1951, he suggests
a 10% price increase reduces consumption by 5%: he
has put forward
the figures in Table 2 to illustrate the effect of
a .10% price.
increase each year.
Table 2
Projected Effect of Price Increase on Consumption
Price of 20 Cigarettes Actual Price (E.)
Consumption
Year W (Assuming 10% (% of 1975)
(1975 Values) Inflation)
1975 0-50 0-50 100
1980 0-80 1-30 77
1985 1,30 3-36 60
Trend analysis has, of course,
anticipates sudden large changes..
U.S.A., a lot of publicity is being
manufacturers in their attempts tb
of the market. Even in individual
ten-year forecasts are difficult to
REFERENCES
12. The Lancet,
13. Russell,
14. Stiftung
15. Peto, J.
16. Peto, J.
serious pitfalls and in no way
For example, at present in the
given to the battle between the
::apture the low delivery segment
markets, therefore, precise
make.
14 th February, 1976.
M.A.H. The Lancet, 7th February, 1976.
fUr Konsumentenschutz. February 1976.
The Lancet, 7th February, 1976.
Br. J. prev. soc. Med. 1974, 28, 241.
<ZD
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