)6)
Arc/EGR146J 18th August 1975
j. G.
COMENTS ON FIGUIM.S QUO171) BY DR. M.A.H.* RUSSELL
-Aa
ACK
Certain questions have been raised concerning the
use of var,.ops
LE . ..... .....
statistics by Dr. Russell. In particular he stated
in a recent talk (1)
that 'after smoking one cigarette, only 15% of
people avoid becoming
dependent on cigarettes'. This could be taken to
imply that only 15Z
of non-smokers have ever smoked, and this seems
unlikely. In consequence
the use of this figure and several others useci by
Russell -has been investigated.
In a paper published in 1971 (2), Russell stated
that 'only 15Z
of adolescents who smoke more than one cigarette
avoid becoming regular
smokers'. He then goes on to say that 'three out
of four current smokers
either wish to or have tried to stop smoking, yet
only about one' in four
succeeds in bec6ming a permanent c.:-s=oker'.
Later he states that
'intermittent or occasional cigarette smoking
occurs in about 22 of smokers'.
The reference given for all these statements is to
McKennell and Thomas (3).
When this publication is consulted the. !ollowing
information is foiund:-
Adolescents - 16 - 20 years old.
Adults - over 20 years old.
TABLE 1
All Adolescents All Adults
1. Never Smoked at all 19 16
2. Smoked once only 18 11
3. Smoked, but never as much as one cigartttte
per week for one month 13 9
4. Smoked at leant one cigarette per week
for at least one month, but never regularly 8 2
5. Smoked regularly 42 61
6. No answer, can't remember, etc. 1
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Therefore 582 of adolescents and 39% of adults
have nevar-smoked
*P
Xegularly. (A regulcr smoker is defined as one who
smoked at least one
cigarette per day (or the equivalent in'tobacco)).
Category 4 (Table 1) smokers are referred to as
occasional smokers
McKennell and Thomas conclude that 'only just over
a quarter of those who
have one smoke manage to avolld becoming regular
smokers'.
TABLE 2
Adolescents Adults
1. Would you like to give up smoking if
you could do so easily? .49 45
2. Have you ever tried to give up smokin&
altogether? 61 52
Figures are for percentages of smokers answering
'yes' to each question.
TABLE 3
Adolescents Adults
Disson:tnt Sriokers I
Ulish and tried
to give up 38 30
. 49 45
I.Wish and not tried to give up 11 15
Consonant Smokers
Not wish now but tried in the past to
give up. 22 22
51
f 55 f
Neither wish nor tried to give up 29 33
Figures are also given by McKennell dnd Tho=as for
the total number of 3mokers (78%)
aa id ex-smokers (22%).
OD
CC)
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At first sighc it would appear chat most of these
figures differ
from those quoted by R"ssell. On closer
examination it is, however,
possible to surmise that he has performed certain
calculations on these
figures.
From Table 1 it seems that Russell 6s used only
the smokers in
category 3 (those who have smoked more than one
cigarette but cannot be classed
as occasional smokers). 81% of the adolescent
sample have smoked at least
one cigarette (by excluding category 1) and 132
are in category 3. Thus,
16% 13 of the adolescents who have ever smoked
more than once have
avoided becoming regular (or occasional) smokers.
This has presumably
been rounded down to 15% by Russell.
During the talk given by Russell. (1) , reference
was made to those
pe7ople who smoke one cigarette and avoid'
becoming dependent. One must
assume that he in fact meant to refer to
adolescents smoking more than one
cigarette.
It could be said teat the use which Russell makes
of the statistics
is misleading, but the paper referring to these
figures is very carefully
worded. He has also used this type of approach
when considering smokers
who wish to or have tried to give up smoking (for
whom a figure of 752
is suggested).
From Table 2 it would appear, superficially, that
the figure should
be nearer 50% (averaging for questions 1 and 2).
Russell seems, however,
to have used the figures shown in Table 3. If
those who neither wish,
nor have tried, to give up smoking are excluded
and the f1gure5 for other
smokers are summed we find that 71% of adolescents
and 67% of adults wish
to.or have tried to Pive up smoking. This has
presumably been rounded
C:>
u; to 75%. The figure of 22% given by McKennell
and Thomas for ex-smokers (a?~o
a percentage of those who have smoked rogularly)
is presumed to be the 'one
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in four who succeed in giving up smoking' to whom
Russzll refers.
The figure of 22 for occasional smokers is taken
directly from
McEennell and Thomas and refers to adults only.
The figures quoted by Russell appear, therefore,
to be broadly correct
but have been presented in a novel way in order to
make specific points.
He is obviously more meticulous about the wording
of his statements when
they are to appear in print than when they are
delivered verbally.
The assumption, from Russell's statements, that
only 15% of non-
smokers have ever smoked is not valid. The
definition of non-smokers
is often taken to include ex-smokers who may have
been dependent on cigarettes
in thi-;: past but who do not smoke at present.
When the data of McKennell
and Thomas are considered it further appearb that
Russell means to exclude
those people who have smoked once only and those
who are occasional smokers.
In fact it appears that of the present non-smokers
(categories 1, 2 and
18 + 13
3 in Table 1) 62% 19 + 18 + 13) of adolescents and
55% of adults have
ever smoked. It should be noted,of course, that
these figures refer
to statistics published in 1967.
REFERENCES
1. See AKC's note on File 46J, 14th July, 1975
2. Russill M.A.H. B.M.J. (1971) 8th May, 330-331.
3. McKennell A.C. and Thomas R.K. Adults' and
Adolescents' Smoking Habits
and Attitudes. Government Social Survey, London,
H.M.S.O. (1967).
/
Dr.
c.c. D.C. Felton
Dr. F. Haslam
Mr. D..I. Wood
Dr. R.E. Thornton
Mr. D.E. Creighton
-;)r. C.I. Ayt-es
Mrs A.K. Comer
CD
%,C,
BATCO document for Province of Brit!Sh Columbia 2
November 1999