CIGARETTE SMOKING, HEALTH, AND DISSONANCE
(PROJECT LIBRA): IV. FURTHER ANALYSIS,
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOIDIENDATIONS
REPORT NO. RD.1825 RESTRICTED
25.8.1981
AUTHOR: M.J. Weaver
GROUP LEADER: R.P. Ferris
ISSUED BY: M. Oldman
DISTRIBUTION:
Dr. L.C.F. Blackman Copy No. 1, 2, 3
Dr. R.A. Sanford 4, 5
R.M. Gibb, Esq. 6
R.S. Wade, Esq. 7, 8, 9
R.G. Nicholls, Esq. 10, 11
Herr E. Rittershaus 12
Dr. F. Seehofer 13
Dr. C.J.P. dp.Siqueira 14
Mr. W. Van Putten 15
H. Tudor, Esq. 16
Dr. D.G. Felton 17
Library 18, 19
PROG. REF.: 108.01
COPY NO.:
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Group'Research & Development Centre,
British-Amerlean Tobacco Co. Ltd.,
SOUTHAMPTON.
MJW/CAL/46J 25th August 1981.
CIGARETTE SMOKING, HEALTH, AND DISSONANCE
(PROJECT LIBRA): IV. FURTHER ANALYSIS,
CONCLUSIONS AND RECO12fENDATIONS
(Report No. RD.1825 Restricted)
SUM14ARY
This is the final report in the Project LIBRA
series, in which
particular attention is paid to
(i) patterns of consumer movement amongst the tar
bands,
(ii) brand preferences in terms of "most often"
brand,
(iii) elaboration of the consonance /dissonance
concept,
and (iv) attempts to quit smoking.
In order to provide a view of changes over time in
these areas, data from
a more recent study are also introduced.
It is concluded: that currently available U.X.
brands in the low
delivery sector do not provid.e for the needs of a
considerable number of
dissonant middle tar smokers; that more younger
smokers are attempting to
quit; that the emergence of the low to middle tar
sector has provoked a
recent mobility in the market; that highly
consonant smokers are more
likely to be women than men and that highly
dissonant smokers are only
slightly more likely to have moved to low and low
to mi ddle tar brands.
it is also establi shed that three-quarters of
all.smok ers have at some CD
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time tried to quit. Recent quitters are more
likely to say that they
were under a great deal or a fair amount of
pressure to give up, supporting
the view that perceived pressure is an important
factor in determining
likely changes in the market.
It seems that many middle tar smokers want to
change to a lower
delivery brand but do not wish to overtly state
their health concern and
susceptibility to pressure.
Highly dissonant smokers are likely to find
themselves in social
contexts which are less supportive of their
smoking behaviour. Children
in the smoker's family are a particularly potent
source of anti-Amoking
pressure.
Project LIBRA has demonstrated the utility of
market segmentation
based upon attitudes to health, smoking and
quittin g. Although the
relationship between dissonance and switching and
quitting is mediated by
other attitudinal and social context variables, it
is suggested that much
useful information may be gained by the
incorporation into market research
studies of a number of pertinent questions
identified and validated by
this research. A list of recommended questions is
given.
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INTRODUCTIO14
This report concludes the series arising from
Project LIBRA. Project
LIBRA is a comprehensive quantitative study of
current cigarette smokers,
ex-smokers and never smokers, the principal
objective of which was to
examine the relationships between cigarette
smoking, health attitudes and
dissonance.
Previous reports in the series have dealt with
W differences between smokers,-ex-smokers and
never smokers in
attitudes towards health, differences within the
smoker category
in degree of dissonance and how these relate to
attitudes to
health, motivation for smoking, and modes of
conflict resolution
(1),
and (ii) relationships between various
psychographic scales and health
attitudes, etc. (2).
The present report focusses its attention on a
more detailed analysis
of typologies of smokers with particular reference
to implications for
market movements.
In addition to drawing on data from Project LIBRA,
the current report
refers to relevant data from two earlier studies,
Operation AQUARIUS (3)
and a smoking study carried out for BAT (UK & E)
(4). and to initial
analyses of data from a recent study of public
responses to other people
smoking (Project ARIES), in order to present
evidence on changes over
time.
Four ways for classifying current smokers were
considered. These
were:
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M patterns of tar band movement over time;
(ii) brand preference in terms of "most often"
brand;
(iii) position on the continuum currently used-to
classify degree
of consonance or dissonance;
Uv) attempts to quit smoking.
PATTERNS OF TAR BAIM MOVEMT
This section deals with changes over time in the
proportion of
smokers at each tar band and the tar band
movements of individual smokers.
Tar band movements were determined by responses to
two questions:-
"Which brand of cigarettes do you smoke most
often?" and "What brand of
cigarettes did you previously smoke most often?".
Before considering tar
band movements it is necessary to comment on the
definItion df "most
often". For most smokers this term is a meaningful
one to describe the
brand they do indeed smoke "most often". However,
it is apparent that
many smokers, while claiming a "most.often" or
"preferred" brand, -in
fact, smoke other brands on an intermittent basis.
After experimenting
with an alternative brand, attracted perhaps by a
favourable cost, they
return to their "most often" or "preferred" brand.
The definition employed
in this study therefore reflects a more
established smoking pattern.
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Overall Tar Band Movements
Table 1 shows changes with time in the breakdown
of the U.K. market
by tar band.
TABLE 1
BREAKDOWN OF MARKET BY TAR BAND
AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES
1978 1979 1980
Total 1837* 721** 192**
M M M
Middle-High/ High 10 1 1
Middle 65 72 68
Low-Middle 8 7 14
Low 16 20 17
*Weighted to take account of sampling biases.
**Excluding unclassifiable/menthol brands.
The overall trend, as is well known, is for the
middle to high and
high categories to have diminished to an
insignificant proportion of the
market and for the low to middle and low sections
to have increased
steadily in size.
Qualitative evidence would suggest that there is a
significant felt
need among middle tar smokers for a lower tar
brand. The continued
predominance of the middle tar segment would seem
to indicate that for
many of them there is currently no fully
satisfactory alternative available.
The growth of the low to middle tar band will not
only be encouraged
by manufacturers, but it seems likely that many
smokers might welcome it
as an acceptable way of helping them to trade
down. Many middle tar
smokers who have experimented with low tar brands
admit'that they have
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not had the willpower to stay with the brand long
enough to accustom
themselves to the different level of
taste/satisfaction. For these
smokers a movement down to low to middle tar would
be seen to be an
appropriate compromise.
The characteristics of smokers in each tar baud
will be examined.
Low Tar Smokers
Table 2 shows changes with time in the demographic
characteristics
of low tar smokers.
TABLE 2
CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW TAR SMOKERS
AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES
1978 1979 1980
Total 294* (16%) 140 (20%) 33 (17%)
M M M
Sex Male 38 26 21
Female 62 74 79
Age 16-24 5 6 9
.25-44 34 38 42
45 + 61 56 48
Class ABC1 34 41 33
C2 38 29 45
DE 27 30 21
*Weighted to take account of sampling biases.
The figures show a continuing female dominance of
the low tar market.
If anything, this has become more marked between
1978 and 1980 with the
proportion of females increasing from 62% to 79%.
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In 1978 the low tar market was strongly skewed to
those aged 45 and
over who made up 61% of low tar smokers. The
figures for 1980 indicate
that although the 16-24 age group is, pro rata,
still under-represented
in the low tar market, persons in this age group
are becoming increasingly
likely to smoke low tar products.
The figures concerning socioeconomic class reveal
no consistent time
trends. The results of Project LIBRA indicate that
the low tar market is
skewed towards the ABCI group.
Low to Middle Tar Smokers
From Tablp- 3 it can be seen that the'relative
proportions of male
and female low to middle tar smokers have changed
radically between 1978
and 1980. In 1978 the figures show a bias towards
females relative to
the total sample profile. By 1980 low to middle
tar smokers are
predominantly male.
The age profile suggests that low to middle tar
products are gaining
increasing acceptance among you-nger smokers.
There is some indication.
that smokers of low to middle tar products are
concentrated in the lower
socioeconomic groups. However, this conclusion is
based on very small
numbers.
ON
ON
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TABLE 3
CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW TO MIDDLE TAR SMOKERS
AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES
1978 1979 1980
Total 148- (8%) 52 (7%) 26 (14%)
M M M
Sex Male 35 42 62
Female 65 58 38
Age 16-24 9 is 19
25-44 48 40 35
45 + 44 44 46
Class ABC1 29 31 15
C2 38 42 42
DE 33 27 42
*Weighted to take account of sampling biases.
CY\
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Middle Tar Smokers
Table 4 shows that middle tar smokers are equally
likely to be men
or women.
TABLE 4
CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE TAR SMOKERS
AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES
1978 1979 1980
Total 1176* (65%) 520 (72%) 131 (68%
(7.) M M
Sex Male 48 53 51
Female 52 47 49
Age 16-24 20 17 15
25-44 41 40 40
45 + 40 44 46
Class ABC1 27 27 30
C2 39 39 37
DE 35 34 33
*Weighted to take account of sampling biases.
The 'age profile of middle tar smokers is changing
with a bias towards
the older age group. In 197i 40% of middle tar
smokers were aged 45 or
over. By 1980 46% were over 45.
Middle tar smokers seem to be fairly evenly
distributed across
socioeconomic classesv a pattern which has shown
little change from 1978
to 1980.
cr%
(71%
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Middle to High/High Tar Smokers
Table 5 reveals that the very low number of middle
to high and high
tar smokers precludes any comment except on the
virtual disappearance of
this segment of the market.
TABLE 5
CHAAACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE TO HIGH/HIGH TAR SMOKERS
AQUARIUS LIBRA ARIES
1978 1979 1980
Total 180* (10%) 9 0%) 2 (1%)
M (No.) (NO.)
Sex Male 73 6 2
Female 27 3 -
Age 16-24 3 -
Z5-44 24 1 -
45 + 74 8 2
Class ABC1 21 - -
C2 39 2 1
DE 40 7 1
*Weighted to take account of sampling biases.
Considering these changing profiles together gives
a clearer picture
of movements between tar bands. It is clear that
more younger smokers
are moving from the middle tar band or choosing
lower tar cigarettes when
starting to smoke. The low to middle tar band
seems to offer the most
attractive alternative for these smokers although
the low tar band is
gaining increasing acceptance.
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More women are movin-, from middle tar mainly into
the low tar segment.
Men who leave the middle tar band find the low to
middle segment more
attractive, perhaps because of the smaller taste
and satisfaction
differences and perhaps because many low tar
brands have a predominantly
feminine image in terms of pack design, etc.
Movement from the middle tar band is evenly
distributed across
socioeconomic class. However, the higher social
groups seem to be
attracted to low tar brands while those from the
lower social groups
appear to find the low to middle tar brands more
acceptable.
Brand Switching and Tar Band Movement
Brand switching behaviour was categorised in terms
of the effective
directional/ norr-directional changes with respect
to tar band, which
occurred when the smoker switched from previous
"most often" brand to the
current "most often" brand. The four categories
were:
(i) norr- directional change - the smoker stayed
in the same tar
band;
(ii) a movement down the tar bands;
(iii) a movement up the tar bands;
(iv) no change - the smoker had no previous "most
often" brand or
had never changed brands.
Where numbers permitted, further subdivisions were
made within the
first three categories and specific tar band
movements were isolated.
Table 6 shows changes made by the total sample and
also by those who
have smoked their current "most often!' brand for
less than three years.
This group includes both those who have changed
brands within the last
three years and also those who have entered the
market within that time (-r
period. 01
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TABLE 6
BRAND SWITCHING AND TAR BAND MOVEMENT
To cal
Norr-directional change
Middle tar consistently smoked
Movement down tar band
Do-.m to low tar
Down to low to middle tar
Movement up tar band
No previous brand
Unclassifiable .
1978 LIBRA (1979) ARIES (1980)
Total Total 3 Years Total 3 Years
988 746 387 199 106
M M M M (7.)
37 .49 55 5.1 52
34 46 so 48 49
32 24 25 25 30
10 14 18 13 18
8 6 5 9 11
9 6 5 7 10
16 14 5 11 4
6 7 10 6 4
The figures show that the biggest movement down
the tar bands occurred
up to 1978 when 32% of smokers had moved down.
However, only 18% had
moved down to low to low to middle tar cigarettes
so a significant
proportion of the downward movement reflects
changes down to middle tar
products. In 1979 and 1980 about 50% of those
changing within the last
three years had remained within the same tar band,
mainly the middle tar
band. About 25% had moved down the tar bands, and
this downward movenient
is almost entirely due to movement to the low to
middle and low tar
categories.
Considering the figures for those changing brands
within the last
three years, the relatively low numbers reportin,
no previous brand iLl
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1979 and 1980 suggests a slight fall in the number
of new smokers coming
into the market.
Table 7 shows the data recalculated, excluding
smokers with no previous
brand and those who were smoking either menthol or
unclassifiable brands4-
TABLE 7
BRAND SWITCHING AND TAR BAND MOVEMENTS
(EXCLUDING "NO PREVIOUS BRAND" AND
"UNCLASSIFIABLE")
197a
Total 771
M
Non-directional change 47
Middle tar consistently smoked 43
Movement down tar band 41
Down to low tar 13
Down to low to middle tar 10
Movement up tar band 12
LIBRA (1979) ARIES (1980)
590 330 165 .98
M M (7.) M
62 65 61 56
58 59 58 53
30 29 30 33
is 21 16 19
8 6 11 12
8 6 8 11
This shows a sharper picture of market movements
and, considering
those who have changed brands in the last three
years, the figures suggest
that the market may once again be on the move. Ta
1979 65% of those
changing brands had remained in the same tar band.
By 1980 this figure
had dropped to 56%. This fall is almost totally
accounted for by the
growth in the low to middle tar band. In 1979
figures show 6% had moved
down to low to middle tar brands. By 1980 this
figure had increased to 12%.
At first sight, the figures for those moving up
the tar bands may
appear to contradict this trend. In 1979 6% had
moved up and in 1980 the
corresponding figure was 11%. However, most of the
movement in 1980 is
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accounted for by those who had moved up to a low.
to middle or middle tar
brand. This presumably reflects those smokers who
had moved down to
lower tar brands, found them unacceptable and
moved back up again.
The following sections consider the
characteristics of smokers in
the different tar band movement groups. The groups
which are large enough
to allow for comparisons are:
M consistent middle tar smokers;
(ii) smokers who have moved down to a low tar
brand within the
last three years.
Consistent Kiddle Tar Smokers
In 1978 34% of packeted cigarette smokers had
changed brands but had
remained within the middle tar band. In'1979 this
figure had risen to
46% and in 1980 to 48%.
If we consider their expressed motives for
changing from their
11 previous most often" to their current "most
often" brand in almost all
cases these refer either to cost or to the fact
that they wanted to smoke
a king size or larger cigarette. Health reasons
were not as likely to be
mentioned and these smokers did not seem to have
any particular dislikes
about their previous brands in terms of product
attributes but were more
likely to say that it was too expensive or too
small.
From the results of Project LIBRA and Project
ARIES it appears that
consistent middle tar smokers are more likely to
be aged under 44 and to
come from the C2DE occupational groupings.
It has been suggested that there is a significant
proportion of
smokers who remain in the middle tar band despite
a felt need to modify
their smoking behaviour. They have not felt able
to make the trade down
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due to the lack of an acceptable alternative.
These smokers want to
feel that they are still deriving the same degree
of satisfaction and
that their changing brands does not indicate any
dramatic change in
their pattern of smoking behaviour to other
smokers. A lower tar brand
with a middle tar 'look' to it, in terms of pack
design, image, etc.,
and with middle tar taste amplitude might be of
interest to these middle
tar smokers. Vanguard in the U.K. and- Accord in
Canada seem to fall
into this category. If such alternatives are not
available it is possible
that middle tar smokers who are concerned about
their smoking and are
seeking ways of modifying their smoking behaviour
may have no viable
alternative but to quit the market. As already
pointed out, the 1980
figures for those changing within the last three
years suggest that the
market may be moving again. More middle tar
'smokers may be finding
acceptable alternatives with the growth of the low
to middle tar band
and the advent of lower tar brands being marketed
with more acceptable
image, pack, etc.
These movements do not appear to be a simple
consequence of cut
price offers. It is estimated that at least 20% of
smokers in the U.K.
are "price promiscuous" - that is, they buy
whatever king size brand is
cheapest or "on offer" at the time. However, it
seems that many of these
smokers still have a "most often" or "preferred"
brand. Although they
may initially be attracted to a brand by price,
they will only stay with
the brand and make it their "most often" brand if
it offers the appropriate
level of satisfaction with an acceptable 'image' ,
at the required tar
delivery level.
CD
a,%
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Smokers Moving Down to Low Tar Brands Within the
Last Three Years
In 1979 and 1980 about 20% of smokers reported
moving dowa to a low'
tar brand within the previous three years.
Smokers in this group claimed that their major
motivation for changing
to their current "most often" brand was "for
health reasons" and because
the new cigarette was "milder". Conversely, their
previous brand was
rejected primarily "for health reasons" and
because it was "too strong".
Cost was less likely to be mentioned as a reason
for changing.
These smokers are more likely to be women and tend
to smoke slightly
fewer cigarettes per day than the total sample.
They are more likely to
feel that their smoking is motivated primarily by
habit.
Data from LIBRA and ARIES indicate that smokers
who have moved doum
to a low tar brand are also more likely to have
tried to give up smoking
and to have succeeded in quitting for longer when
they have tried.
Paradoxically, they appear to perceive themselves
as being unable to give
up smoking. Conversely, many middle tar smokers
perceive themselves as
being in control of their smoking and able to
quit. However, the evidence
indicates that when they do try, they succeed for
shorter lengths of
time.
Smokers who have moved down the tar bands report
that they feel
themselves to.be under a great deal of pressure to
give up smoking. For
these smokers switching to low tar brands offers
an alternative means of
reducing their concern about their smoking. For
them the reassurance
gained by smoking a lower tar cigarette outweighs
any loss in satisfaction.
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For some, this reduced taste and satisfaction may
complement and
reinforce any sense of reassurance given by
smoking a lower tar product.
In addition, if these smokers are primarily
motivated by habit rather
than by positive aspects, such as enjoyment and
satisfaction, they may,
for example, be less concerned about the taste
characteristics of the
product, and so experience fewer negative
consequences of changing to low
tar brands.
PROFILES OF SMOKERS OF SPECIFIED BRANDS
Only three brands or houses of cigarettes have
sufficient smokers to
allow them to be isolated in Project LIBRA.
Although the numbers are
very small for Project ARIES they have been
considered in order to see
whether there is a consistent pattern of smokers
who are nominating the
brand as their "most often".
The brands/houses considered are Benson and Hedges
King Size (80-
smokers in LIBRA/19 in ARIES), Silk Cut House (56
in LIBRA/13 in ARIES),
and John Player King Size (40 in LIBRA/13 in
ARIES).
Recent years have seen a dramatic change in the
market shares of
available brands. The share of Benson and Hedges
King Size has grown
significantly while Embassy Tipped has lost its
earlier dominant position.
John Player King Size and Silk Cut house are of
particular interest as
spearheads of the move to king size and low tar
respectively.
Benson and Hedges King Size Smokers
Figures from LIBRA and ARIES suggest that smokers
of Benson and Hedges
tend to be younger. In the LIBRA sample, 67% of
Benson and Hedges King Size
smokers are aged under 45 against 54% of the
total. The corresponding
C:>
figure for ARIES is 74%*against 54% of the total
sample. This age
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-18-
distribution represents a growth of the popularity
of Benson and Hedges
King Size among younger smokers.
There is evidence that Benson and Hedges King Size
smokers are more
likely to be in the C2DE socioeconomic groupings
and data from-ARIES
suggests that the profile of Benson and Hedges
smokers is becoming
increasingly male (63% of Benson and Hedges
smokers are male against 48%
of the total sample).
Benson and Hedges smokers are more likely to have
tried to give up
smoking within the last two bears (64% v 58% total
sample) and to claim
that they would fairly or very seriously like to
give up smoking (96% v 51%).
They are also more likely to perceive themselves
as under pressure to
quit smoking (37% v 25%). motivations of Benson
and Hedges smokers appear
to be varied. In the LIBRA study 43% claimed that
they smoked because it
was a habit, although 38% said that their only
reason for smoking was to
relax.
Benson and Hedges seems to have a regular core of
support: on average
Benson and Hedges smokers have been with the brand
for 4 years. Their
main reasons for changing to Benson and Hedges
were health (37%) and
because it was a king size cigarette (27%).
Silk Cut House Smokers
Smokers of Silk Cut brands are consistently more
likely to be female
(80% v 53% in the total sample in LIBRA and 85% v
52% in ARIES) reflecting
the greater acceptability of low tar products
among female smokers.
The Project LIBRA data shows Silk Cut smokers to
be over represented
among social classes ABC1 (41% v 30% of the total
sample), although in
ARIES this bias has largely disappeared.
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It is clear that the major reasons for changing to
Silk Cut brands
were concern for health (76Z-v 38% total sample)
and a wish to smoke a
milder cigarette (27% v 19%). Only 14% of Silk Cut
smokers against 79%
of the total sample mentioned cost as a reason for
changing.
Silk Cut smokers were less likely to claim that
they smoked for
relaxation. Forty-three percent claimed that they
smoked from habit
while only 30% mentioned relaxation or enjoyment
as a reason for smoking
as against 35% of the total sample who mentionea
this as a reason.
From Project LIBRA it is apparent that Silk Cut
smokers feel themselves
to be under a great deal of pressure to quit or
modify their smoking
behaviour (32% of Silk Cut smokers v 25% of the
total sample).
Results from Project LIBRA suggested that Silk Cut
smokers were more
likely to be dissonant but data from ARIES show an
increasing likelihood
for them to be consonant. This may be a reflection
of consonant smokers
switching to Silk Cut brands. Alternatively,
switching to a low tar
brand may reduce the feelings of dissonance felt
by previously highly
dissonant smokers and so bring them into the
consonant category.
John Player King Size Smokers
Smokers of John Player King Size are more likely
to be men (65% are
male v 47% of the total sample in LIBRA and 62% v
48% in ARIES). They
are also more likely to be young (20% aged 16-24
in LIBRA v 14% of the
total sample). This age bias appears to be
increasing from ARIES data
(31% v 14%). Whilst earlier John Player King Size
showed a C2DE bias it
now appears to have greater acceptance among those
in the ABC1 occupational
grouping.
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A-major motivation for smokers changing to John
Player King Size was
because they wanted a king size cigarette (32%.v
15% of the total sample).
This is an obvious reason in that John Player King
Size came onto the
market competitively priced in a king size length
and was therefore
cheaper and larger than most brands available at
the time. Twenty-one
percent said that they tried John Player King Size
and then preferred
them (v 13% of total sample).
Forty-three percent of John Player King Size
smokers claimed that
they smoked for relaxation and for enjoyment
against 35% of the total
sample. Thirty-five percent claimed they smoked
because it was a habit.
John Player king Size smokers seem to feel
themselves to be under
pressure to give up smoking (31% v 25% of total
sample), and are-more
likely to have tried to give up within the last
two years (662 v 58%).
However, despite the pressure and their attempts
to give up, overall they
do not appear to be currently very serious about
wanting to give up: 58%
of John Player smokers claimed that they are not
very or not at all
serious about wanting to give up against 48% of
the total sample. Not
surprisingly, John Player smokers were found to be
more likely to be
consonant in both LIBRA and ARIES studies.
CONSONANCE/DISSONANCE
As described in an earlier report on Project LIBRA
(1), cigarette
smokers were classified according to their degree
of cognitive consonance
dissonance. The basis for classification was
whether the smoker has even
tried to give up smoking and how seriou3ly he
would like to give up. The
four categories are:
C7111
01%
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Highly Consonant - those who have not tried -nor
wish to quit.
Consonant - those who have tried but do not now
wish to quit.
Dissonant - those who wish to quit but have not
tried.
Highly Dissonant - those who.wish to quit and have
attempted to do so.
Table 8 shows the proportion of smokers in each of
these categories
for Projects LIBRA and ARIES. The relative
percemtages remain fairly
consistent.
TABLE 8
CLASSIFICATION BY CORSO NANCE /DIS SONANC E
LIBRA ARMS
1979 1980
Highly consonant 21 21
Consonanc 29 3Z
Dissonant 7 1
Highly dissonant 43 4Z
The discussion following concentrates on those
smokers classified as
highly consonant or as highly dissonant as these
tvo groups clearly
represent the two extremes of attitudes on this
dfimension as currently
defined.
0 ~1
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-22-
Highly Consonant Smokers
Table 9 shows the characteristics of highly
consonant smokers.
TABLE 9
CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY CONSONANT SMOKERS
(PERCENTAGES FOR TOTAL SAMPLE IN BRACKETS)
LIBRA ARIES
1979 1980
M M
Sex Male 45 (48) 41 (48)
Femal e 55 (52) 59 (52)
16-24 16 (14) 30 (14)
25-44 25 (40) 35 (40)
45 + 60 (46) 49 (46)
Class ABC1 31 (30) 32 (29)
C2 36 (37) 34 (39)
DE 32 (33) 34 (32)
Pressure to quit Great deal/Fair amount 9 (25) 17
(36)
Not very much/None at all 91 (75) 83 (64)
Pressure to modify Great deal/Fair amount 7(23) 20
(35)
Not very much/None at all 90 (76) 80 (65)
The results from LIBRA and ARIES show that highly
consonant smokers
are more likely to be women than men and that this
bias has increased
from LIBRA to ARIES. The age bias towards those
aged over 45 revealed by
LIBRA has disappeared in ARIES, with a growth in
the number of highly
consonant smokers aged unde-r'25.
Highly consonant smokers appear to show greater
brand loyalty than
other groups. On average they have smoked their
current most often brand
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-23-
for almost six years in LIBRA and nine years in
ARIES compared with means
of five and five and a half years for the total
samples. The reasons
given for changing to their "most often" brand
were that their new brand
was cheaper and that, when they tried them, they
preferred them. As. on
average, they have been with their current brand
for six years, the
changes by highly consonant smokers do not
coincide with the dramatic
price changes in the market brought about by the
introduction of king
size brands and they argued that they changed from
their previous brand
simply because they were ready for a change.
With respect to smoking motivation, highly
consonant smokers appear
to be motivated more by positive effect. They
claim to smoke "to relax"
and "for comfort" and are less likely to regard
smoking simply as a matter
of habit. They appear to perceive themselves as
having greater control
over their smoking than other groups. Thirty-eight
percent ady that they
could give up smoking if they wanted to do so
compared with 34% in respect
of the total sample.
Comparison of results from LIBRA and ARIES reveals
an increase with
time in the level of pressure to give up or to
modify smoking behaviour
perceived by smokers in general. Twenty-five
percent of smokers-in LIBRA
felt that they were under a great deal or a fair
amount of pressure to
quit smoking. In ARIES the'figure had risen to
362. The figures for
those who feel under pressure to modify their
smoking behaviour show a
similar rise from-23% to 35%.
The number of highly consonant smokers who feel
themselves under
pressure to quit or modify their behaviour has
also increased from LIBRA C:)
to ARIES. In LIBRA 9% claiLa to be under pressure
to quit smoking and 7%
C7 \
U1
4
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-24-
feel under pressure to modify their smoking. In
ARIES the figures are
17% and 20% respectively. However, highly
consonant smokers are clearly
less likely to feel themselves under pressure
compared with the total
sample.
That fewer highly consonant smokers experience
pressure may, in
part, be a consequence of the context in which
they live. Data from
LIBRA shows that highly consonant smokers are less
likely to be in a
household where they are the only smoker (45% of
highly consonant smokers
against 50% of the total sample). Even more
significant is the presence
of children in the household. Fifty-eight percent
of highly consonant
smokers are in households with no children
compared with 47% in the total
sample. It would seem that children are a
particularly potent source of
pressure, whether directly or indirectly.
Highly consonant smokers are also likely to be in
a more supportive
environment outside of the family. Fifty-six
percent claim that most of
their friends smoke compared with 48% of the total
sample and 32% say
that most of their workmates. smoke, against 27%.
Table 10 shows the tar bands of highly consonant
smokers' "most
often" brands. It suggests that they are more
likely to remain with
middle tar brands than the sample overall.
However, the figures in ARIES
suggest that when they do trade down they are more
likely to move to a
low to middle tar brand than a low tar one. The
fact that a larger
proportion of highly consonant smokers have not
changed to lower tar
brands suggests that their consonance is not
mainly due to them having
traded down and thus reduced any conflict
concerning smoking, although
for some this has probably played a part. ON
ON
(-n
CD
--j
CO
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-25-
TABLE 10
TAR BANDS OF "MOST OFTEN" BRANDS FOR HIGHLY
CONSONANT S1-JDKERS
Tar band of
"most often"
brand
Middle
Low to Middle
Low
LIBRA ARIES
1979 1980
M M
73 (70) 71 (66)
5 (7) 15 (13)
16 (19) 12 (17)
In general, highly consonant smokers seem
relatively insulated from
market changes. More than other groups they seem
less likely to quit
smoking due to outside pressures or to change
their habits as a result of
market influences. There are. however, aspects
which suggest that this
segment of the market is not as stable as it may
seem. Firstly, although
highly consonant smokers are less likely to agree
that cigarette smoking
is harmful to health (39Z v 62% of the total
sample), there is still a
substantial number who do agree. However, only 8Z
of highly consonant
smokers are very or quite concerned about the
possible effects their
cigarette smoking may have on their own health. Tn
a previous report (2)
smokers who believed that smoking is harmful yet
are not concerned about
its effects on their own health were described as
'incongruent'.. Their
incongruent stance is maintained by a variety of
strategies for rationalising
the smoking and health issue.
If the effectiveness of these strategies is
reduced or the highly
consonant smoker is placed under greater pressure,
he may experience
greater conflict between his beliefs and action
and move into the dissonant
categories. If this happens, it may be significant
that these smokers
01 N
--j
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-26-
believe themselves to be more in control of their
smoking and capable of
giving up if they wish to. If this is so, they may
be more successful in
rejecting cigarettes than smokers in other groups,
particularly if there
are no acceptable alternatives for them to move
to.
Highly Dissonant Smokers
The figures in Table 11 show that the demographic
characteristics of
highly dissonant smokers have remained- stable
from Project LIBRA to
Project ARIES. Highly dissonant smokers are
slightly more likely to be
female than male. They do not appear to be more
likely to belong to any
particular occupational grouping but it does seem
that they are more
likely to be younger (16-44).
TABLE 11
CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY DISSONANT SMOKERS
(PERCENTAGES FOR TOTAL SAMPLE IN BRACKETS)
LIBRA AR ITS
1979 1980
(7.) (7.)
Sex Male 45 (48) 45 (48)
Female 55 (52) 55 (52)
Age 16-24 15 (14) 14 (14)
25-44 46 (40) 46 (40)
45 + 39 (46) 40 (46)
Class ABC1 31 (30) 31 (29)
C2 38 (37) 39 (39)
DE 31 (33) 30 (32)
Pressure to quit Great deal/Fair amount 40 (25) 55
(36)
Not very much/None at all 60 (75) 45 (64)
Pressure to modify Great deal/Fair amount 34 (23)
49 (35)
Not very much/None at all 66 (76) 51 (65) CN
0 \
LT1
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 29
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-27-
Compared with the total sample, highly dissonant
smokers show lower
brand loyalty. They are more likely to be recent
brand switchers, as the
averages for the length of time they have smoked
their current "most
often" brand are 3.9 years in LIBRA and 4.8 years
in ARIES (compared with
5.2 and 5.6 years for the total samples).
With respect to smoking motivation, highly
dissonant smokers are
more likely to be motivated by negative affect.
They smoke when bored,
tense, or anxious. More than other groups they
acknowledge a need for
nicotine and see smoking as a habit. Perhaps as a
consequence, highly
dissonant smokers perceive themselves as having
less control over their
smoking than other groups. Only 29% agree that
they could give up smoking
today if they really wanted to. Their perceptions
are perhaps more
accurate than some other groups as, by definition,
highly dissonant
smokers have attempted to quit but have failed.
Although, on average, the last time highly
dissonant smokers tried
to give up was as long ago as two years there is
evidence that' the number
who have tried to give up within the last two
years is increasing (66% in
LIBRA v 71% in ARIES). On both surveys about 40%
had made two or more
serious attempts to quit within the last two
years.
Highly dissonant smokers are more likely to be
under - or perceive
themselves to be under - pressure to quit smoking,
or to modify their
smoking behaviour than other groups. Like other
groups, the number of
highly dissonant smokers who claim they are under
a great deal or a fair
amount of pressure has increased from LIBRA to
ARIES.
Highly dissonant smokers are likely to find
themselves in social
C=)
contexts which are less supportive of their
smoking behaviour. Although
cr%
00
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 29
October 1999


-28-
they are not more likely to be the only smoker in
the household (49%
v 50% of total sample), they are more likely to be
in households including
children. Thirty-nine percent of highly dissonant
smokers live in households
with no children against 47% of the total sample.
This supports the
suggestion made earlier that children are a
particularly potent source of
anti-smoking pressure.
Outside of the family, highly dissonant smokers
are likely to find
themselves in social contexts where smoking is
less prevalent. Only 41%
of highly dissonant smokers claim most of their
friends smoke compared
with 48Z of the total sample. Twenty-three percent
claim that most of
their workmates smoke against 27% of the total
sample.
Not surprisingly, highly dissonant smokers show
great concern over
the smoking and health issue. As many as 82% agree
with the statement
that cigarette smoking is harmful to health (v 62%
of the total sample).
Fifty-three percent of highly dissonant smokers go
beyond a general belief
in the possible harmful effects of smoking and
claim that they are very
or quite concerned about the effects their
cigarette smoking has on their
own health. Thus there are fewer incongruent
smokers in the highly
dissonant category than in the highly consonant
category. Highly dissonant
smokers adopt different strategies in attempting
to reconcile the
inconsistencies between their beliefs and
attitudes and their actions.
They do not rationalise or deny the possible
harmful consequences of
smoking but are more likely to accept that smoking
is harmful and yet
they cannot stop it. Nevertheless, 65% of highly
dissonant smokers
express the intention of giving up smoking some
day although, as already
stated, they perceive themselves as having less
control over their smoking
CN
than other groups. C_n
CZD
cc
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-29-
Table 12 shows the tar bands of highly dissonant
smokers' "most
often" brands. In LIBRA it appeared that highly
dissonant smokers were
more likely to be moving from middle tar brands
(662 of highly dissonant
smokers were smoking middle tar brands v 70% of
the total sample).
However, despite the overall decrease in middle
tar smokers from LIBRA to
ARIES, the percentage of highly dissonant middle
tar smokers has remained
fairly constant. Comparing the LIBRA and ARIES
figures for low to middle
tar and low tar highly dissonant smokers, it seems
that while proportionally
more are smoking low tar brands, the low to middle
tar group is growing
at the cost of the low tar group.
TABLE 12
TAR BANDS OF "MOST OFTEN" hRANDS FOR HIGHLY
DISSONANT SMOKERS
LIBRA ARIES
1979 1980
(Z) W
Tar band of Middle 66 (70) 65 (66)
"most often"
brand Low to Middle 8 (7) 11 (13)
LOW 22 (19) 19 (17)
It might have been expected that there would have
been a greater
movement to lower tar brands by highly dissonant
smokers as part of a
strategy for reducing dissonance. That a large
number of highly dissonant
smokers have remained with middle tar brands
suggests that, currently,
there arc no acceptable low tar brands available
for them to move down
to. This may be because highly dissonant smokers
are more likely to Perceive
themselves as having'a need for nicotinev a need
which would not be
fulfilled by lower delivery brands. Alternatively,
or additionally, (J1
cr%
co
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-30-
current lower tar brands may not offer a total
'package' in terms of
image, pack etc. which is perceived as a
reasonable alternative.
However, it appears that moving to lower tar
brands is not an
effective strategy for reducing dissonance for
many smokers. Thirty
percent of highly dissonant smokers are smoking
low to middle or low tar
brands.
Highly dissonant smokers, as they. have been
described, wish to give
up smoking, are under pressure to do so, and many
of them have seriously
attempted to do so within the last two years.
However, other evidence
suggests that those who have made two or more
serious attempts to quit
smoking within the last two years and have failed
may not be as likely to'
quit the market as it would first appear. Thus,
despite their concern
and the pressure they are under, it could be
argued that a large proportion,
of these smokers will form a stable core of the
manufactured cigarette
market for the next few years. However, this
concern and pressure suggests
that this is a group who would be highly motivated
to modify their smoking
behaviour in terms of switching to brands which
they perceived as 'safer'
yet meet their requirements, whatever they might
be.
Further Analysis of Consonance/Dissonance
On the basis of the information presented in the
preceeding sections,
it is apparent that attitudes towards health and
the pressure felt by
smokers are independent elements differentiating
between consonant and
dissonant smokers. Therefore further analyses were
carried out relating
these factors.
Of highly consonant smokers, 46Z are either
uncommitted or dismissive
about cigarettes being harmful to health, are
unconcerned about the
CN
00
-9 b.
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 29
October 1999


-31-
effects their cigarette smoking may be having
on*their own health and
claim to be under very little or no pressure to
modify their smoking
behaviour or to quit. This 46% would seem to
represent a stable core of
the market as they currently have no apparent
motivation to change the
pattern of their smoking behaviour. Seventeen
percent of highly consonant
smokers believe that cigarettes are harmful to
health, are at least a
little concerned about the effect it Was on their
own health but, as yet,
are not under any pressure, or perceived pressure,
to modify or quit
smoking. If. for any reason, thes"e smokers begin
to experience or
acknowledge any pressure being brought to bear on
them to quit smoking or
change their smoking behaviour, they are likely to
become increasingly
motivated to question their smoking behaviour and
may seek acceptable
alternatives to their current brand and, if they
are unsuccessful in
finding one, may be sufficiently motivated to
succeed in quitting.
It has been pointed out that highly consonant
smokers perceive
themselves to be in control of their smoking and
able to determine Vnether
they smoke or not. In the event, it is likely that
many of those attempting
to quit might then find difficulties in breaking
the habit that they had
not previously acknowledged and would fail. There
would thus be an
increase in the number of smokers defined as
highly dissonant unless there
are available acceptable alternative brands which
enable them to dissipate
their dissonance.
By contrast, 27% of highly dissonant smokers agree
that cigarette
smoking is harmful to health, are very or quite
concerned about the effect
smoking might have on their own health and claim
to be under at least a
fair amount of pressure to either quit or modify
their smoking. None of Q1
CN
CN
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


them have yet succeeded and for many of them
quitting may not provide a
realistic strategy for resolving their dilemma and
they may have to seek
other alternatives. A further 32% of highly
dissonant smokers agree that
smok.-:ag is harmful to health, are concerned
about its. effects on their
own health but are not yet under any pressure to
change their smoking
patterns or quit. If pressure builds up generally
and specifically to
levels such that these smokers acknowledge this
pressure, then this group
is likely to become even more dissonant and its
members more motivated to
modify their behaviour or quit smoking. How
successful these smokers
migh: be in quitting is not clear. As already
pointed out, as many as a
third of these smokers have made two or more
attempts to quit smoking in
the last two years and would therefore seem
unlikely to be successful -
if previous research into successful quitting is
considered.
It is clear that, given the probable future
increase in the social
pressures on the acceptability of smoking, there
is likely to be a
sig=ificant rise in the number of smokers who are
motivated to quit
smoking or modify their behaviour. Some of the
potential loss may be
st-ed by the development of more acceptable lower
tar brands and those
who try to quit and fail are also likely to be
seeking alterna-tives.
Although the figures'for tar-band movement trends
suggest that some
smokers are willing to follow the manufacturers'
lead on developing the
low to middle and low tar segments, the large
number of smokers who have
remained with middle tar brands suggests that, for
many, the lower tar
branads currently available do not offer
acceptable alternatives.
It seems that many middle tar smokers want to
change to a lower. tar
br=d but do not wish to overtly state their health
concern and susceptibility,-,
ON
CZ)
cx:)
CrN
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 29
October 1999


to pressure. Such smokers need an acceptable
'rationale' for changing
which cut price offers often provide. However, for
them to stay with a
brand on a long term basis they must be offered
products which compete
directly with familiar middle tar brands in terms
of pack, image, product
design, etc.
ATTEI:TTED AND SUCCESSFUL QUITTERS
In this section smokers who have attempted to give
up smoking are
examiaed and, where possible, compared with
ex-smokers who have successfully
given up smoking.
Attemoted Quitters
Highly dissonant smokers and consonant smokers, by
definition, have
at so--e time tried to quit smoking. This
represents 72% of all smokers
in Project LIBRA and 84% in Project ARIES.
However, for many of these,
the last attempt was some time ago. Therefore, it
was decided to
concentrate on those smokers who have tried to
give up within the past
year since they presumably represent the group who
are most 'at risk' of
quitting the market. This represents 27% of
smokers in Project LIBRA,
12% had tried to quit in the last three months and
15% had tried over
three months ago but within the last year. In
Project ARIES 29% had
tried to give up in the last year, 6% in the last
three months and 23%
from three months up to one year ago.
The results from both projects suggest that those
smokers who have
attempted to quit within the last two years are
likely to be younger. In
LIBRA, 66% were aged 16-44 against 54% of the
total sample and in ARIES
62% were aged 16-44 against 54% of the total
sample.
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 29
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-34-
Not surprisingly, smokers who have tried to. quit
recently are more
likely to be in the highly dissonant category than
the consonant category.
Therefore, they are more likely to claim that they
would seriously like
to give up smoking. 1hey are likely to perceive
themselves to be under a
great deal or a fair amount of pressure to give up
smoking (34% v 25% of
the total sample). Those who had attempted to give
up most recently,
within the last three months, were even more
likely to feel under pressure
(40% v 25% of the total sample).
Recent attempted quitters are likely to have been
smoking their
current brand for less time. The average len gth
of time is 4.1 years
against an average of 5.2 years for the total
sample. This suggests that
as well as attempting to quit, these smokers are
more likely to have
changed brands in an attempt to reduce dissonance.
Indeed, when one
considers reasons for changing from previous "most
often" brands, these
smokers are more likely to have changed for health
reasons and because
they thought their previous brand was too strong
and contained too much
tar. Many of these smokers said they smoked
because it was a habit (41%)
and comfort was mentioned by 32%. It may be that
smokers who are motivated
by these factors find difficulty in quitting.
Successful Quitters
Looking at the overall profile of ex-manufactured
cigarette smokers,
it is male dominated (65% men v 35% women) and
biased towards the older
age grouos and higher social class groups. If we
consider more recent
trends by looking at those who have succeeded in
quitting within the last
two years, it appears that more women are giving
up than was previously
C=)
the case. Within the last two years the proportion
of women giving up (XI
CN
Cr%
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CD
co
CC)
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-3 5--;
was higher than the total sample profile (417. v
35% ih LIBRA and 51% v 35Z
in ARIES).
Quitters within the last two years were also more
likely to be
younger. in LIBRA 53% were aged 16-44 against 37Z
of. the total sample.
In ARIES, the corresponding figures were 54%
against 38%.
Recent quitters also even more likely to be in the
ABCI socioeconomic
groupings (in LIBRA 47% v 41Z of total sample, in
ARIES 462 v 41% of
total sample).
Retrospectively, ex-smokers who have quit within
the last year were.
more likel, to say that they were under a great
deal or a fair amount of
pressure tz give up (33% in LIBRA v 27% of the
total sample and 47% in
ARIES v 33: of the total sample).
Recen: ex-smokers were likely to have been smoking
their "most often"
brand prio= to quitting for slightly longer than
the total sample of
smokers ani markedly longer than unsuccessful
quitters. The average time
for er-smokers was 5.8 years against 5.2 years for
smokers overall and
4.1 years for unsuccessful quitters. This suggests
that quitting has
been their major strategy for reducing dissonance
concerning smoking and
they were less likely to have experimented with
other brands as an
alternate strategy.
SUMMARY OF FINDINCS
Patterns of Tar Band Movement
1. Analysis over time of the breakdown of the
market by tar band shows
a clear swing away from middle to high and high
tar brands towards
the low and -low to middle end of the market.
Clearly, this is a
reflection of changing marketing strategy.
However, the swing
CN
co
N-0
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999


-36-
towards lower tar brands does reflect a serions
need among middle
tar smokers for lower tar brands with an overaLll
proposition which
will satisfy them on a long term basis. The
evidence suggests that
current brands do not fulfill the total latent
demand among iiiddle
tar smokers.
2. Female smokers continue to dominate the low tar
market. There is
still a bias towards those over 45 years of age
but the most recent
figures show that more younger smokers are movIng
to low tar. Taken
in conjunction with subsequent evidence that
ytounger smokers are
more likely to be trying to quit, and are becoming
more successful,
it is not surprising that those who are
unsuccessful have moved to
low tar brands, perhaps as a compromise.
3. The profile of low to middle tar smokers has
changed towards men
since 1978. There are also a higher proportion of
low to middle tar
smokers in the age range 16-24, although the
profile is spread across
all ages. There is a slight indication that these
smokers are more
concentrated among the C2DE social class groups.
4. Middle tar smokers are equally likely to be men
or women although
there is evidence that more men are staying with
middle tar brands.
The age profile for middle tar smokers is tendIng
to become older.
5. Analysis of brand switching patterns suggests
that the biggest
movement down tar bands occurred up to 1978. Since
then about half
of those smokers who have changed brands have
remained in the same
tar band, predominantly the middle tar band.
Consideration of those
who have chan,,ed within the last three years,
however, suggests that
the market is again on the move, due primarily to
the growth of the C- n-
ON
low to middle tar segment. 0-1
C-TI
CD
110
C:D
BATCo document for Province of British Columbia 29
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6. Examination of consistent middle tar smokers
shows them to be youn"er
and in the lower occupational groupings. Their
major motivations
for changing brands are associated with cost or
size rather than
concern for health. It was suggested that many
middle tar smokers
feel a need to trade down but have not found an
acceptable alternative
7. Smokers who have moved down to low tar brands
within the last three
years are more likely to be motivated by health
concern. They claim
to be under pressure to give up smoking and are
more likely to have
tried to quit and to have succeeded in quitting
for longer periods.
Smokers of Specified Brands
8. Three brands/houses were considered: Benson and
Hedges King Size,
Silk Cut House, and John Player King Size. Beason
and Hedges smokers
tend to be younger, male, and in the lower
socioeconomic groupings.
They are likely to have tried to give up and to be
under pressure to
do so. Major reasons for changing to Benson and
Hedges were health
and size.
9. Silk Cut house smokers are more likely to be
female. They are likely
to be under pressure to quit and to have changed
to Silk Cut because
they were milder. While they tended to be
dissonant, more recent
evidence suggests an increase in the number of
consonant Silk Cut
smokers.
10. Smokers of John Player King Size are more
likely to be male and in
the younger age groups and the brand is gaining
increasing acceptance
within the ABC1 occupational grouping. They feel
under pressure to
quit and are more likely to have attempted to do
so, although many
claim that they are not very serious in their
desire to give up ON
CN
BATCo document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
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-38-
smokd.r_-. The major reason for moving to Joh-a
Player King Size was
that it was a king size cigarette at a low price.
Consonance and Dissonance
11. High-17. consonant smokers are more likely to
be women than men. They
appeaz to display more brand loyalty than other
groups and when they
changed they were primarily motivated by cost.
They are less likely
to be under pressure to quit or modify their
smoking than other
groups and are more likely to live in households
with no children -and
to mim- with other smokers in their social and
work enviro=ents.
They ;-?pear to be relatively detached from market
changes over recenc
years and are more likely to have remained within
the middle tar
sesme=t.
12. Highl, dissonant smokers are slightly more
likely to be women and to
be yo=ger. They are more likely to be recent brand
switchers and
40% have made two or more serious attempts to quit
within the last
two y=-ars. Highly dissonant smokers are more
likely to be under
press=e to quit or modify their smoking than other
groups and are
more likely to live in households with children.
Highly dissonant
smokers are slightly more likely to have moved to
low and low to
middle tar brands.
13. Further analysis of the consonance/dissonance
dimension ;;--s carried
out emamining the role of health concern and
pressure. 7hese factors
are likely to be important in determining the
future brand switching
or quitting behaviour of consonant and dissonant
smokers.
AttemDted &nd Successful Quitters
14. Three-quarters of smokers have at some time
tried to quit. About -a
quarter of smokers have tried to quit within the
past year. Recent
Un
C7%
a,.,
U1
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attemp:ad quitters are likely to be younger-.and
to be under ;ressure
to qui:. They are likely to have experimented with
other brands and
to smoke because it is a habit and for comfort.
15. The ovezall profile of ex-smokers is male
dominated although more
women have quit within the past two years. Hare
recent quitzers
also tamd to be younger and to come from the
higher socioeconomic
groupings. They are more likely to say that they
were under a great
deal o: a fair amount of pressure to give up. This
supports the
argumem: that pressure or perceived pressure is an
important factor
in dete--mining likely changes in the market.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECONMENDATIONS
The results discussed in this report suggests
fruitful bases for
segmenting =anufactured cigarette smokers in a way
which relates to their
likely brani switching behaviour and potential
loss from the market due
to quitting.
As well as demographic characteristics identifying
those groaps who
might be parzicularly susceptible to modifying
their smoking behaviour in
terms of switching brands or giving up smoking, it
is clear that examinatio'n
of attitudi=al and social context variables can
play an important part in
identifyin.g those smokers who are either likely
to quit the market or who
are motivated to modify their smoking behaviour if
provided with acceptable
alternative brands and also those who are likely
to fall into this category
should certain circumstances change in the future.
One im--ortant factor is degree of cognitive
consonance/ dissonance in
terms of the mismatch between attitudes to smoking
defined by des!xe to
C=:)
quit and pr=-vious attempts to q*uit and.
continued smoking behaviouz. (-n
CN
0 `1
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-4 G-
However, the relationship between degree of
consonance or dissonance and
the likelihood of subsequent. action in terms of
switching brands or
quitting is mediated by other attitudinal and
social context variables.
Consonant and dissonant smokers can be further
defined in terms of
their attitudes to smoking and health. The general
belief that cigarette
smoking is harmful to health and, perhaps more
important, a personal
concern for the effect that cigarette smoking
might have on one's own
health, identify those who either are or may
become motivated to change
their behaviour by either switching brands or, if
they cannot find an
alternative brand which is acceptable on a long
term basis, trying to
quit, a strategy which may or may not be
successful.
A further factor which is significant is the
degree of pressure a
smoker is under or perceives himself to be under,
to quit smoking or
modify his smoking behaviour. It seems that the
presence of such pressure
plays an important role in motivating smokers to
actually do something
about their smoking by either modifying it or
quitting.
On the basis of the results discussed in this
report it is suggested
that much useful information could be gained by
considering these factors
in future market research studies. It is
recommended, therefore, that
such studies should incorporate a set of questions
derived from Projects
LIBRA and ARIES designed to examine these issues.
U1
C1%
C71%
~-n
C=)
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October 1999


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The recommended set of key questions contains
twelve items, some
of which will already be included in most studies.
The questions are as
follows:
1. Which (ONE) brand of cigarettes do you smoke
most often?
(TO BE CLASSIFIED BY TAR BAND)*
2. How long has ................. been your most
often brand.
LESS THAN ONE MONTH
OVER ONE MONTH UP TO THREE MONTHS
OVER THREE MONTHS UP TO SIX MONTHS
OVER SIX MONTHS UP TO ONE YEAR
OVER ONE YEAR UP TO TWO YEARS
OVER TWO YEARS UP TO THREE YEARS
OVER THREE YEARS UP TO FOUR YEARS
OVER FOUR YEARS UP TO FIVE YEARS
OVER'FIVE YEARS UP TO SIX YEARS
OVER SIX YEARS UP TO SEVEN YEARS
OVER SEVEN YEARS UP TO EIGHT YEARS
OVER EIGHT YEARS UP TO NINE YEARS
OVER NINE YEARS UP TO TEN YEARS
OVER TEN YEARS (WRITE IN)
3. What brand of cigarette did you previously
smoke most often before
.................... ?
(TO BE CLASSIFIED BY TAR BAND)*
As well as providing information on the overall
distribution of the
market between tar bands, these questions enable
examination of the
specific directions of movement between tar band
by particular groups of
smokers.
*In some markets cigarettes will be classified
according to delivery.
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4. Have you ever tried to give up smoking
manufactured cigarettes
altogether?
YES (Go on to question 5)
NO (Go on to question 10)
5. How hard have you tried to give up smoking
manufactured cigarettes
altogether?
NOT AT ALL HARD
NOT VERY HARD
QUITE HARD
VERY HARD
6. When was the last time you tried to give up
smoking manufactured
cigarettes altogether?
LESS THAN ONE MONTH AGO
OVER ONE MONTH UP TO THREE MONTHS AGO
OVER TIMEE MONTHS UP TO SIX MONTHS AGO
OVER SIX MONTHS UP TO NINE MONTHS AGO
OVER NINE MONTHS UP TO TWELVE MONTHS AGO
OVER TWELVE MONTHS UP TO EIGHTEEN MONTHS AGO
OVER EIGHTEEN MONTHS UP TO TWO YEARS AGO
OVER TWO YEARS UP TO FIVE YEARS AGO
OVER FIVE YEARS AGO
CAN'T REKEHBER
\10
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7. On the last occasion you gave up smoking
cigarettes, how long did
you give up for?
ONE DAY
TWO TO SIX DAYS
ONE WEEK
OVER ONE WEEK UP TO TWO WEEKS
OVER TWO WEEKS UP TO THREE WEEKS
OVER THREE WEEKS UP TO FOUR WEEKS
ONE MONTH
OVER ONE MOUTH UP TO THREE MONTHS
OVER THREE MONTHS UP TO SIX MONTHS
OVER SIX MONTHS UP TO TWELVE MONTHS
ONE YEAR
LONGER THAN ONE YEAR
8. How seriously would you like to give up smokLng
manufacturea cigarettes
altogether?
VERY SERIOUSLY
FAIRLY SERIOUSLY
NOT VERY SERIOUSLY
NOT AT ALL SERIOUSLY
On the basis of their responses to questions 4 and
8 smokers can be
categorised according to the degree of
consonance/dissonance expressed as
follows:
Highly Consonant - Have not tried to give up
smoking and
would not very or not at all seriously
like to.
Consonant - Have tried to give up smoking but now
would not very or not at all seriously
like to.
Dissonant - Would very or fairly seriously like to
give up smoking but have not tried to do
so. C=:)
(-n
Highly Dissonant - Would very or fairly seriously
like to CN
give up smoking and have tried to do so.
N10
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Questions 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 are designed to provide
more sensitive
information oti the smoker's past and present
commitment to quitting
smoking and his degree of success in doing so. For
many smokers their
last attempt to quit may cave been some time ago,
more reliable information
on current trends can be derived by considering
recent attempted quitters
in particular. Length of last quitting attempt may
translate into the
probability of successfully quitting in the
future. Number of attempts
to quit in the last two years also related to the
probability of successfully
quitting at a later date. Evidence suggests that
those who have made
many attempts at quitting are less likely to be
actually successful.
9. How far do you personally agree or disagree wit
h the statement
"Cigarette smoking is harmful to health"?
AGREE STRONGLY
AGREE
NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE
DISAGREE
DISAGREE STRONGLY
10. How concerned are you about the possible
effects YOUR cigarette
smoking has on YOUR OWN HEALTH?
VERY CONCERNED
QUITE CONCERNED
A LITTLE CONCERNED
NOT VERY CONCERNED
NOT AT ALL CONCERNED
These two questions identify the general degree of
concern with
respect to the relationship between cigarette
smoking and health and,
perhaps more importantly, the degree to which the
smoker is concerned
C7 \
0 \
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about how smoking might affect his own health.
These factors differentiate
those smokers who, if at present they are not
highly motivated to quit
smoking or change their behaviour, may become so
with changes in
circumstances such as an increase in pressure.
11. How much pressure, if any, do you feel under
to give up smoking
altogether?
A GREAT DEAL
A FAIR AMOUNT
NOT VERY MUCH
.NONE AT ALL
12. How much pressure, if any, do you feel under
to modify you smoking
behaviour?
A GREAT DEAL
A FAIR AMOUNT
NOT VERY MUCH
NONE AT ALL
These two questions consider the degree of
pressure to quit or modify
that the smoker is under or perceives himself to
be under. Absence or
presence of such pressure is likely to be a
significant factor determining
how attitudes to smoking are translated into
motivations to quit or modify
smoking by changing brands and subsequently into
action.
The information gained from these questions should
enable segmentatiom
of the market in terms of the proportion of
smokers who are 'at risk' of
quitting the market or who would be motivated to
switch brands should
acceptable alternatives be made available. It
would also enable
identification of those smokers who would become
'at risk' with changes
in circumstances such as increased social pressure
on the social
CN
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unacceptability of smoking. Such information might
be collected regularly
over time and in different market contexts. To the
extent that consistent
historical trends can be identified it may be
possible to predict future
needs and market potential in currently less
developed markets.
REFERENCES
1. BAT Report No. RD.1697-C, 18.10.79.
2. BAT Report No. RD.1743-C, 20.5.80.
3. OPERATION AQUARIUS. NOP Market Research
Limited, July 1978.
4. Saoker Behaviour and Image Perception of Key
Brands and Houses.
England Grosse Associates, 1978.
CZ)
(-n
BATCO document for Province of BritiSh Columbia 29
October 1999